Jarhead* said:
Fact of the matter, though, I have to agree with him re: retiring after the heavy lifting is over, and the effect of inflation, or recession, for that matter, have on a retired couple.
With just the two of us to financially worry about, (you'll have to take my word on this), it's been relatively pain-less. (And a whole lot of fun).
Common sense, and a little experience doesn't hurt though.
Cut-Throat said:
I tend to agree with you here Jarhead. There is an over-concentration with financial safety on this forum.
Yes, it's possible to run out of money, but it seems like a lot of financial plans here involve the worst case of everything.
This is not how I chose to live life. Way too much worrying. FireCalc is a 'worstcase' historical tool' - that is good enough for me.
If I worried about all the what ifs in life, I would never leave home in the morning to drive in traffic - Which is far riskier than believing in a portfolio that survives FireCalc.
Everyone has to get comfortable with THEIR plan - and then enjoy life!
Jarhead* said:
One of the problems on a board like this is that the age being open-ended, and playing fields not being level for everybody, we're all over the ball-park re: retirement requirements.
It's interesting to note we're telling people that ER can best be understood by being experienced, and then telling the ERs that retirement spending can best be understood by experiencing it instead of obsessing over FIRECalc. You would think that, having made the first transition, we wouldn't need so much help getting through the second.
My personal "Ruh-roh" was running Financial Engines' Monte Carlo simulator right after 9/11 and realizing that we could probably make it if inflation stayed at 3%, the long-term historical average. But ER fell apart if the simulator's inflation hit 3.5%, and I knew that the actual previous 30 years' inflation average had been 5%. Of course the financial picture has brightened considerably since then and I've learned a lot about inflation, FIRECalc, & Monte Carlo's drawbacks. No worries.
Without extensive disclaimers, I'd still hesitate to tell someone (especially a new poster) that they can take a 5-6% SWR. While we don't worry about our own personal situations because we know them so well, it always seems to take a long time for a poster's financial picture to emerge. Most are reluctant to share it at first (rightfully so) or later realize that they didn't appreciate the significance of other info. What initially may be our "No problem, quit tomorrow!" response could turn into a "Have you considered part-time employment?" caveat. Especially when someone ERs face-first into a bear market.
Jarheads, your words of calm wisdom help me to relax about our property taxes going from $1500 to $2550 in three years. While the percentage trend is alarming, the magnitude is perhaps not an issue. Would you mind chatting with my mother-in-law the next time a three-pound bag of oranges goes up 25 cents?
OHjosh said:
"Sorry for the 4th degree hijack of your thread."
Thanks-- man I was REALLY getting scared by some of the posts!
Well, now you've
really been welcomed to the board... I'm afraid it won't get any better. But our coverage of such a wide range of topics is all too hard to find at just any discussion board, let alone in a single thread. I think it's because we all have such short attention spans.
OHjosh said:
In regard to this job, I desperately want to "take a spin". But the people I speak with in my developing job network are equally divided on how "deadly" such a decision would be to getting future management-level employment in my chosen field (non profit servcies). I really wanted to stop at age 55 (4 years from now), or if I really liked what I was doing, age 60. But the heavy hitters in my corner say no matter what, stick with this job until I get another. The problem is I am almost physically fed up and a June release is what I was tying my mind to.
Have others moved back into the managment work force after quitting and taking a six month or one year hiatis? how hard was it to do so?
Not me. But perhaps neither have the people who are giving you such "advice".
Even if they know what the heck they're talking about, consider that their objectivity may be influenced by their own lack of interest (or insecurity!) about retirement and by their motivation to keep you working with them. If you're ready to go in June then that's what you should do. Financially you seem to have it covered, and the rest can work itself out.
We suggest sabbaticals & long vacations because it's a safe way for people to feel that they have a net before they make the ER leap. However I can't remember anyone who actually kept working after a sabbatical. Most have dreaded the return date, discovered they can no longer tolerate the office routine & politics, and put in their papers as fast as possible ("Thanks, can I go burn through my vacation time now?"). The sabbatical is the nudge that helps you let go of the first trapeze to leap for the next one.
OHjosh said:
Finally, on the financial fear side... I have great trust in my ability to manage MY finances, but very little for the average American. My major fear is what all that debt will do to the stock market when large numbers of people start going belly up. They will take my nest egg down from their stupidity!
It'll never happen. People's oversized mortgages may deprive them of their houses and turn them into renters, but they'll keep their savings. The vast majority of Americans, especially Boomers, will keep working until their 70s because they haven't saved enough for ER. Not only will they not cash in their stocks, they'll keep buying new ones. Their payroll taxes will even help fix the Social Security & Medicare funding gaps!
