Housing Forecasts for 2006 & 2007

[REWahoo]

Real Estate: Is the party over?
Exclusive forecasts for the 100 largest markets.
December 16, 2005
By Ellen Florian Kratz, FORTUNE

NEW YORK (FORTUNE) -- Everybody from Los Angeles to Boston -- your mom, your doctor, your dry cleaner -- is puzzling over which way the nation's real estate market is headed. Up or down? Bubble or not?

It's a debate that's been raging for years, and recently that there have been clear signs of a slowdown. It's unlikely, however, that the housing market will come to a screeching halt.

To get a clearer picture of how things may play out, FORTUNE turned to Moody's Economy.com and home property-valuation service Fiserv CSW.

The researchers crunched numbers on the 100 largest metropolitan regions in the country[and ranked them according to forecast housing price appreciation]...

Top 10

1 San Antonio TX
2 Jacksonville FL
3 El Paso TX
4 Little Rock-North Little Rock AR
5 Baton Rouge LA
6 Richmond VA
7 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News VA
8 Nashville-Davidson-Newport News TN
9 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown TX
10 Memphis TN

Bottom 10:

90 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward CA
91 Fresno CA
92 Bakersfield CA
93 Providence-Fall River-New Bedford RI/MA
94 Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville CA
95 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale CA
96 Nassau-Suffolk counties NY
97 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA
98 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine CA
99 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos CA
100 Las Vegas-Paradise NV

http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/re_growth_forecast/

 

[JPatrick]

Oh my 
There's a crowd of rich Calley forn yuns on the front lawn of my San Antonio McMansion. 

 

[REWahoo]

Oh my
There's a crowd of rich Calley forn yuns on the front lawn of my San Antonio McMansion.

Get a rope a contract and some serious earnest money...

 

[JPatrick]

Get a rope a contract and some serious earnest money...

and then the rope.......

 

[laurence]

Wow, my town is ranked 99th, and how is it they even name my suburb? There are only 60k people living there, yet this is the second time I've seen it mentioned in a nationwide magazine wrt: housing. Too weird!

 

[tryan]

Thanx for the link!

Was a bit surprized most markets (~80%) are projected to continue growing for the next 2 years. But I guess it's like turning around an ocean liner (long and slow).

 

[wildcat]

Are real estate forecasts any more accurate than stock market forecasts?

 

[Spanky]

Real estate market is probably more accurate than stock market forecast since real estate market is more stable than the stock market.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

Real estate market is probably more accurate than stock market forecast since real estate market is more stable than the stock market.

That is the way I see it.

JG

 

[Enuff2Eat]

it's all a guessing game. if i can predict the future i already am rich by now. somehow, the rich seems to be better at the "predicting" games than the poor.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

it's all a guessing game. if i can predict the future i already am rich by now.  somehow, the rich seems to be better at the "predicting" games than the poor.       

I don't know, but the rich have more time to think about it.
Also, there is "Murphy's Golden Rule" which states that the
one with the gold makes the rules. This is pretty true all the
way up and down the economic ladder.

JG

 

[Brat]

Notice that the communities with the highest growth also have a relatively low median home price.  The actual $ appreciation isn't that great. 

 

[REWahoo]

The actual $ appreciation isn't that great.

...unless you happen to live in one of those relatively low median home price areas and have watched from the sidelines as the "housing bubble" inflated. In that case, it's (predicted to be) very nice.

 

[Trace]

I relocated to San Antonio earlier this year.  It's nice to see it on the top of the list.   I have several neighbors who just relocated from California.   

I was amazed at what you could buy for your money in San Antonio.   We purchased a new brick home that is in a gated community (top schools & fabulous views) for $81 a square foot.   No state income tax but property taxes are fairly high. 

The heat in July & August was off the chart.  However, the winter has been very reasonable. 

 

[REWahoo]

The heat in July & August was off the chart. However, the winter has been very reasonable.

Trace, one thing we don't do on the forum is mislead people about how "nice" it is down here in Texas. The truth is the heat was off the chart all the way to the end of September, with a high of 104 on September 28. You can verify it here if you don't believe me: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/html/climate.htm

Truth is, Texas is a red state full of rednecks and right-wing nutjobs. It isn't a place for the faint of heart, and with housing prices poised to soar, it isn't any place any rational person would want to live. Heck, JG even likes the place well enough to try to live here part time.

 

[brewer12345]

Trace, one thing we don't do on the forum is mislead people about how "nice" it is down here in Texas.  The truth is the heat was off the chart all the way to the end of September, with a high of 104 on September 28.  You can verify it here if you don't believe me: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/html/climate.htm

Truth is, Texas is a red state full of rednecks and right-wing nutjobs. It isn't a place for the faint of heart, and with housing prices poised to soar, it isn't any place any rational person would want to live.  Heck, JG even likes the place well enough to try to live here part time. 

We tried the same thing in NJ. Didn't work; we've been overrun.

 

[RockMiner]

FWIW, I read a newspaper article predicting that Austin, Texas will be hotter than San Antonio or any other large Tx city in 2006. I guess Texas has finally been discovered after years of sleepy housing prices (compared to the rest of the country). Californians or New Yorkers show up here and think houses are dirt cheap..often paying cash for bigger, nicer houses than they used to owe mortgages on. Austin also offers scenery and the feel of
a smaller city. Money flows down hill.

 

[Sheryl]

Californians or New Yorkers show up here and think houses are dirt cheap..often paying cash for bigger, nicer houses than they used to owe mortgages on. 

Good! It's about time some other area took their share of 'em!

 

[SteveR]

We have had several waves of CA refugees move in here over the past several years.  Each wave drives up housing prices for a while and then they fall back down until the next wave.  

The major downside, besides a tub full of housing bubbles, have been the CA gangs that have also moved in.  Most of the violent crime here now seems to be due to "gang related activities" according to the local police and media here.  

My newest neighbors are a couple of CA lawyers who are half my age with more $$ than they know what to do with.  Seems like a nice problem to me.

 

[REWahoo]

FWIW, I read a newspaper article predicting that Austin, Texas will be hotter than San Antonio or any other large Tx city in 2006.

I don't doubt it for a minute. You sure put a whoopin' on San Antonio this year:

San Antonio - 13 days of 100 degrees or more, highest temp. 105 on Sept. 25
Austin - 26 days of 100 degrees or more, highest temp. 108 on Sept. 25

...and it is NOT a dry heat.

 

[JPatrick]

I don't doubt it for a minute.  You sure put a whoopin' on San Antonio this year:

San Antonio - 13 days of 100 degrees or more, highest temp. 105 on Sept. 25
Austin         - 26 days of 100 degrees or more, highest temp. 108 on Sept. 25

...and it is NOT a dry heat.

And SA   fell 15 inches short on rain this year with another multi-year drought predicted.  This is where the fun really begins

 

[Nords]

... with another multi-year drought predicted.  This is where the fun really begins

I remember the CA drought of the '80s. Your toilet-drinking dog avatar may be more appropriate than you intended!

 

[JPatrick]

I remember the CA drought of the '80s.  Your toilet-drinking dog avatar may be more appropriate than you intended!

Are you kidding?  During our last drought we couldn't use our toilets.  The city stationed portipotties on every other corner.  On the upside, my kids made a killing selling potty maps.  Actually, I heard that was the inspiration for MapQuest.
Plus, DW grew some damn nice looking begonias in the unused toilets.

 

[Nords]

Are you kidding?  During our last drought we couldn't use our toilets.  The city stationed portipotties on every other corner. 

Damn, you mean we're allowed to start using them again?!?

 

[JPatrick]

Yep, there's always that 2 percent that don't get the word