Yep, the remaining question is whether this is comparable to Manhattan or to the South Bronx... or west Jersey.So it's Tokyo, and it yen/sq. meter and it's residential. How it is measured we don't know, and we don't know if it represents the entire city. Still, it's clearly broad enough yet targeted enough to support your point quite well.
Every real estate pullback is different. Hawaii kicked off in 1990 with the Kuwait invasion, the Japanese real estate collapse (accompanied by its massive bank fraud), and the military's post DESERT STORM drawdown. Those three factors made it a lot cheaper to rent, except in isolated parts of the high-end luxury market, just about every year until 2000.
Today the military is growing, military base housing is coming on & off the market as everything is overhauled, and the foreclosure rate isn't too bad compared to the rest of the U.S. The credit crunch has kinda hollowed out condos & townhouses for first-time homebuyers, but single-family homes haven't slowed down too much on the higher end.
I think prices around here will revert to the mean (measured as a multiple of median income) or go sideways for a few years. And as usual, that's going to depend on the economy...