CaptainO
Dryer sheet aficionado
The thread titled “What percentage of net worth allocated to stocks?” took an interesting turn. I was going to pose a similar question regarding percent of net worth in equities (or bonds, for that matter). To take it one step further, how do you retired folks that say most of your net worth is invested in equities or bonds respond to Jager’s post?
Originally Posted by Jager
“Well, I'm not at all against equities. Up until 2004, when I bailed from the market, I was 100% in stocks - and had been for many years. I look forward to getting back to them somewhere down the road.
In the meantime, here's a thumbnail of what informs my thinking:
- Most financial pundits (and most investors) came of age during the long-running secular bull market from 1981-2000. They know nothing else.
- The secular bear market which began in 2000 has largely been held in abeyance by the infusion of liquidity and stimulus by central bankers around the world. At the cost of gargantuan and rapidly rising debt.
- Societal obligations (SS, Medicare, and their equivalents across the developed world) are not fundable in the long run via any cogent scenario I have ever seen presented. The math simply does not work.
- The politics are such that the hard, painful decisions that could be made, won't be. It will first have to devolve into crisis.
- Financial tools such as Firecalc, wonderful as they are, have embedded within them as their major assumption that the future in front of us will never be worse than the past. There will never be a financial dislocation, for instance, worse the 1930's.
I'm an optimist by nature. But I'm utterly convinced there will be a reckoning. The math impels it. I believe the times speak to the preservation of what one has saved. Not return on investment.”
I can't help thinking along the same lines as Jager, because I keep hearing the term “unprecedented” in regards to today’s economic policies, and fear it could all come crashing down.
For you folks that are all in the market in some form or another, you’re obviously disregarding the ominous clouds and staying the course. I’m curious as to how you arrived at your perspective. Do you dismiss this kind of talk as Chicken Little, or do you say “Well, I’ve got to get this amount of return, so the market is my only option”? Or, do you base your approach on another viewpoint? I’d be very interested to hear your thoughts.
Originally Posted by Jager
“Well, I'm not at all against equities. Up until 2004, when I bailed from the market, I was 100% in stocks - and had been for many years. I look forward to getting back to them somewhere down the road.
In the meantime, here's a thumbnail of what informs my thinking:
- Most financial pundits (and most investors) came of age during the long-running secular bull market from 1981-2000. They know nothing else.
- The secular bear market which began in 2000 has largely been held in abeyance by the infusion of liquidity and stimulus by central bankers around the world. At the cost of gargantuan and rapidly rising debt.
- Societal obligations (SS, Medicare, and their equivalents across the developed world) are not fundable in the long run via any cogent scenario I have ever seen presented. The math simply does not work.
- The politics are such that the hard, painful decisions that could be made, won't be. It will first have to devolve into crisis.
- Financial tools such as Firecalc, wonderful as they are, have embedded within them as their major assumption that the future in front of us will never be worse than the past. There will never be a financial dislocation, for instance, worse the 1930's.
I'm an optimist by nature. But I'm utterly convinced there will be a reckoning. The math impels it. I believe the times speak to the preservation of what one has saved. Not return on investment.”
I can't help thinking along the same lines as Jager, because I keep hearing the term “unprecedented” in regards to today’s economic policies, and fear it could all come crashing down.
For you folks that are all in the market in some form or another, you’re obviously disregarding the ominous clouds and staying the course. I’m curious as to how you arrived at your perspective. Do you dismiss this kind of talk as Chicken Little, or do you say “Well, I’ve got to get this amount of return, so the market is my only option”? Or, do you base your approach on another viewpoint? I’d be very interested to hear your thoughts.