I absolutely understand the line of thinking. I just dont know why someone would subject themselves to it. I can choose to look positively at a situation or take the worst case and drive myself into the ground with it. Choosing the latter results in poor decisions, self destruction and depression. Choosing the former helps one maintain discipline. Neither alters the financial facts.
Even in the mitigating definition above, the words "economic harm" "damage sustained" "destroyed" and "placed beyond recovery" are well taken.
Should the stock market drop 99.99% today, I will have suffered no harm, no damage, nothing will have been destroyed and nothing will be beyond recovery. Unless I sell as an emotional reaction. Unless I thought I was an investing "genius" and held individual stocks in companies that defaulted. Unless I used poor asset allocation. Unless my planning lacked sensible safety nets and the ability to accommodate a portfolio value that is temporarily reduced.
Theres a message here, and it isnt that I'm trying to be contentious. Its that we have a strong history of what does and what doesnt work when one is trying to make money in financial markets. What works is taking a broad position using good asset allocation, and barring truly exceptional events, to hold the course. Having a backup plan. Maintaining a safety net. And not losing your cool when bad things happen. Then there is little chance of "losing" anything.
The worst thing on earth you can do is add up all the fears and negatives and beat yourself into a losing strategy as a result.
But maybe it's all different now. Maybe a huge downturn IS right around the corner. Maybe the holders of primarily cash and fixed instruments will see what they've long expected and have their pickings of the market through a horrific 5 year bear market or a 10 year secular bear. Geez louise, if that was my idea of what to look forward to, I'd have to strap on some of my kids diapers cuz I'd be crapping my pants three times a day in fear.
Or maybe sentiment is good, valuations are decent, and a few trillion bucks worth of cash thats been "sitting on the sidelines" gets deployed and we see a nice smooth bull for 10.
In either situation, I have a plan that works. And I dont "LOSE" anything. And I know for a fact that nobody knows whats going to happen except for someone who was the lucky guesser of the day.
What I know for sure is that waiting is a fools game, and that the price of weasel cheese, the south american hogwart political position, the chinese incursion and the m5 to g5 pricing ratio are as good or better than any other predictor of whats going to happen.
Now put on your helmets, get in the game, and win one for the bunny, goddammit.