Oops, can't believe I overlooked the helpful link you included in your first message. That unsuccessful and unnecessary search is 15 minutes I'll never get back.
Regarding the dates, I found the following at
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ex-date.asp:
Investopedia explains Ex-Date
This is the date on which the seller, and not the buyer, of a stock will be entitled to a recently announced dividend. The ex-date is usually two business days before the record date. It is indicated in newspaper listings with an x.
I think that means I can avoid the dividend while minimizing loss of market exposure by selling just before the close of the trading day prior to the ex-date and buying at the opening of the ex-date.
I just crunched the numbers, and the estimated dividends amount to 1.17% of my current positions in VEU, VTI, VWO, and VBR. Assuming that I hold them all for at least a couple of months, I'll pay 15% Federal and 4.4% state/local or 0.23% of the total. The magnitude is modest but meaningful - about 5% of annual living expenses.
Currently after 1.5 trading days the positions are sporting a 0.12% gain, upon which I will have to pay short-term capital gains (32.4%) if I sell. This means that for each position that gains at least 0.70% by the last few minutes of the trading day prior to the ex-date, selling to avoid the dividend is a losing play.
Also, each position that gains more than 0.23% by that point will in hindsight have been worth taking prior to the ex-date because the gain would exceed the tax.
If the positions decline and go negative, the case for selling improves because I can use the losses; however, I also have to buy less desirable substitutes and hold them for at least 30 days to avoid wash sales.
All that said, I'll be in Mexico with my family, parents, in-laws, and aunt next week, so I think my lack of safe, convenient Internet access will be the overriding factor that causes me to retain the shares and accept the tax obligation.
I must confess that I harbor some misgivings about the conventional wisdom. Given the recent positive trending of the market, I like my chances of reaching the 0.23% level that would justify having bought the dividend. Generally, I wonder how many trading days one should be willing to give up in order to avoid a dividend. In this case, I would have given up 3.5 days for VEU, VTI, and VWO, and 6.5 days for VBR.
Thanks for drawing my attention to the error, LOL! - I have learned some things by thinking through the issue this evening.