Yep. Taiwan is not Ukraine.
I came to the conclusion 20 years ago that we were in an economic war with China and simply too short sighted to realize the long term importance of it. Their centralized govt works with long term plans. We cant seem to see past the next quarterly profit statement.
Taiwan won't put up a fight if China invaded. They had the past 70 something years to become independent but during the first 5 decades the politics were controlled by the China-leaning refuge party and the remaining years people in Taiwan did not know better. They had their chance. Much more could have been done.
Some people tried and sacrificed their lives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_independence_movement
I thought once the elders, who had roots in China have died off, the idea of Taiwan obtaining independence would become the consensus among the population. It did not, thanks to years of brainwash and opening economy with China by KMT.
Taiwan is not going to be like Ukraine. It is an island. Blocking the air and sea shipping and it doesn't need more than a month before people starve. There are nuclear plants on two ends of the island. It won't take much bombing to wipe out the top two major cities (Taipei and Kaousiung). Taiwan is not in NATO and there are still significant portion of the government (mainly KMY) think Taiwan belongs to China. It is just a poop show waiting to happen. China already thinks Taiwan is part of China, htey don't have to make up excuses like Putin did to start their 'special military operation'.
The only thing that is similar with the Ukraine war is that the US can only enforce the economic sanctions against China. The US doesn't want to start the nuclear war, China thinks their invasion is internal affair. Taiwan's situation is much worse Hong Kong when it was assimilated in 97'.
TSMC can only give so much leverage. The new Fabs are being built in several locations in the US (one has the 3nm chip planned). That alone should give a good indication that US already had the worse scenario and TSMC is jumping ship.
We enjoy the cheap goods from China, and it comes with a cost.
Same as Western Europe enjoying the natural gas from Russia, and it comes with a string, no call it a chain, attached.
It's damn hard dealing with countries ruled by despots. How we can win, I don't know.
EVERY "China invades Taiwan" scenario I've read doesn't involve a blockade, but an actual invasion, & has China first launching simultaneous attacks on US forces in Okinawa, Guam, & any US intelligence resources (e.g. satellites)
Which would mean thousands of US military dead plus likely tens of thousands of dead civilians, mostly Japanese.
The above wouldn't result in a war limited solely to the Taiwanese theatre.
From the Reuters article: "Xi says China’s aim is peaceful unification"
I'm ok with that, just like I would be ok with Ukraine unifying with Russia, or N and S Korea unifying.
But even our own history shows a path of bloody unification.
I will admit to being naïve and simple. I cannot understand why one would kill ones neighbor to share a government.
China's wanted Taiwan for over 50 years but hasn't been in a position to do so and frankly, until Xi, I'm not sure it was really their priority? Xi has rolled back so much just as Putin is doing in Russia. They've come forward only to revert.
Shooting at Japan would be very different as that turf isn't a "disputed territory."
I am more worried about the potential of another civil war in the U.S. If that were to happen, then China might seize the opportunity to attack Taiwan. North Korea might attack South Korea. Japan would probably sit on the sidelines not being able to rely on the U.S. for assistance. Putin might escalate the brutality in Ukraine including possibly using nuclear weapons. NATO, like Japan, might not act due to not knowing if the U.S. would or could assist. Then there is the likelihood of war in the Middle East because our enemies, including terrorist groups, would take advantage of the fact that we would be fighting ourselves here in the U.S. Americans killing each other in a civil war would only benefit our many enemies throughout the world.
If I took the time to really think about it, I'd be terrified of possible attacks by China, Russia, or even internal/civil war here in the US.
But really, I honestly believe the mass media is just trying to get people like me all whipped up for their own benefit. So, I refuse to think about this sort of thing much or let myself become frightened.
Our brave and valiant ancestors went through much more terrifying times when settling and founding this country, and managed to stay sane and stable while accomplishing constructive, laudable things. We can too. And if worst comes to worst, then I can say "oops" and deal with what happens when it gets here.
Are you indicating "north vs.south" again kind of civil war?
the fact that we would be fighting ourselves here in the U.S. Americans killing each other in a civil war would only benefit our many enemies throughout the world.
Yeah I'm not buying the Civ War thing given that there's a bunch of blue cities in red states. Civil unrest and terrorism maybe, but there's no geographical warfare.