jimbee
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Oct 11, 2010
- Messages
- 1,229
You don't know you've won the game for sure until you're dead.
You don't know you've won the game for sure until you're dead.
I just got back into the market last month
If I were 75 or 80 and had plenty of money, I wouldn't mind making nada.
You don't know you've won the game for sure until you're dead.
Do you really think it is prudent to take financial advice from a 62 year old divorcee librarian who is still working and has less than $1 million to her name? Even if it is free? No chance.
But wait... she wrote "Our Bodies, Our Shelves: A Collection of Library Humor" so she must be qualified to dispense financial advice.
Plus, she is conveniently ignoring inflation risk.
If her ex-husband is wealthy as she states, perhaps she should consider claiming spousal benefits at her FRA rather than waiting until 70 to claim on her own record.
Do you really think it is prudent to take financial advice from a 62 year old divorcee librarian who is still working and has less than $1 million to her name? Even if it is free? No chance.
But wait... she wrote "Our Bodies, Our Shelves: A Collection of Library Humor" so she must be qualified to dispense financial advice.
Plus, she is conveniently ignoring inflation risk.
If her ex-husband is wealthy as she states, perhaps she should consider claiming spousal benefits at her FRA rather than waiting until 70 to claim on her own record.
Yes, absolutely since I am doing that now. Others on this board are doing it too but seldom will admit it since it's not part of the mainstream thinking here and often draws a lot of fire. However, I don't consider fixed income investments "nada". Low returns yes, but not nada."Now all my money is stashed in U.S. Treasuries, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (or TIPS bonds), and laddered CDs, which, in the years to come, I can count on to earn me essentially nada."
If you could maintain the retirement lifestyle you have planned for without the sequence of return risks... would you be comfortable "earning essentially nada"?
Yes, we do that. I plan on .5% real yield. I bought a fair bit of ~2% TIPS early on so I don't think it will be hard to get that as a blended real yield combined with stable value, I-bonds, CD ladders, etc. SS, pensions and a little side income will cover most of our basic expenses and a few frills so once SS kicks in our withdrawal rate should be under .5% most years. We don't have zero stocks but a low allocation and none of the money we need for retirement in stocks.
We use a matching strategy for inflation. This article has TIPS as the best inflation investment:
Top 9 Asset for Inflation Protection
9 Top Assets for Protection Against Inflation | Investopedia
The librarian is also working, and planning to continue working. It seems like a theme or necessity for folks who invest 100% in interest bearing things.
I suppose once you get a few million dollars, you could do this as $1.5 Million would be $50,000 per year for 30 years. But I'd rather just keep my stocks and withdraw at 3.3333 % in case I lived for 31 years.
Not to bring you down, but over the past 4 years you could have had any AA and be in the money. Your AA hasn't experienced downside with the market, but based on my returns over that period you've left money on the table.Since starting ER over 4 years ago I've been in the 3-Fund lazy portfolio and that has been the best financial decision I've made in over 30+ years of investing. I've kept a 60/40 overall AA as follows:
40% - VTSAX (Total Market)
40% - VBTLX (Total Bond)
20% - VTIAX (Total Intl Market)
To date this has returned an XIRR of 7.77% (now there's a good number) while letting me sleep very well and not obsessing about market direction.
I based a large part of my ER decision on ESPlanner output, which includes 3 spending plans:
1. Aggressive Spending (100% of planned Real Returns)
2. Cautious Spending (50% of planned RR)
3. Conservative Spending (0% RR)
I pulled the plug when I was comfortable with "Cautious" spending numbers. BTW, the Monte Carlo projection for the 3-Fund portfolio was appx. 6%, which is about what we have achieved over the last 4 years.
Bottom line is we're off to a great start and sequence of return risks should be behind us if we continue with planned spending over the long term. No need to go down to 0% return numbers and just gonna stick we the 3-Fund 60/40 AA knowing there will be bumps and bruises in the market along the way.
Or, even if you have "won the game" you "might want to consider doing both, if you have enough extra money. Bucket #1 is your "won the game" money and is just invested in fixed income instruments. Which is enough to live the rest of your life in your chosen lifestyle. (maybe even with some cushion) Bucket #2 is the extra money above and beyond what you realistically will ever need. Basically fu money. Invest, speculate, or gamble with it.I think some may have missed this. While she says she won the game and just wants to get out, she is putting varnish on her market timing. See her quote below. She is not swearing off stock risk, she is just swearing it off at current prices.
FN