Idalia storm watch

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socca

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Current prediction is for CAT 2 landing near Cedar Key, FLA.
IMHO, this will move to a CAT 3 before landing.
Will most likely have at least TS force winds in Tampa.
Interesting fact that Hurricane Ian (CAT 4) changed course 220 miles east over the last 72 hours before landfall last year.
 
Dtail said:
Current prediction is for CAT 2 landing near Cedar Key, FLA.
IMHO, this will move to a CAT 3 before landing.
Will most likely have at least TS force winds in Tampa.
Interesting fact that Hurricane Ian (CAT 4) changed course 220 miles east over the last 72 hours before landfall last year.
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Had the conversion about Ian with my Tallahassee-based kid this afternoon. Yes, Ian was unpredictable, and the entire state was at risk at some point.

After 25 years in FL and a few direct hits, I concluded that every storm is different, and preparation based on the history of the last one remembered is a bad idea.

If you’re in the cone, prepare as if it rolls over your house. If it shifts, be prepared to act fast, which requires one to pay attention all the time to what’s going on. If it doesn’t impact you, be grateful.

For the sake of everyone ultimately impacted, I hope you have to eat your strength prediction[emoji6]
 
Here we go again! So many people have no grasp of probability -including the news. They also don't understand that the path of the center low pressure is not the impact area. Not a lot of prep time on this one and such a large potential impact area depending on the path and wind field as it parallels the west coast.
 
FlaGator said:
Had the conversion about Ian with my Tallahassee-based kid this afternoon. Yes, Ian was unpredictable, and the entire state was at risk at some point.

After 25 years in FL and a few direct hits, I concluded that every storm is different, and preparation based on the history of the last one remembered is a bad idea.

If you’re in the cone, prepare as if it rolls over your house. If it shifts, be prepared to act fast, which requires one to pay attention all the time to what’s going on. If it doesn’t impact you, be grateful.

For the sake of everyone ultimately impacted, I hope you have to eat your strength prediction[emoji6]
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Yes every storm is different. My Ian comment was just thrown out there as an interesting point about huge movement late in the process. Hurricane Charlie and Irma also had huge movements east late in the process.

I wish I was wrong too about my prediction, but the NHC already changed the landfall to CAT 3 at the 5am update.

Lately, some storms coming up the west coast of FLA appear to have rapid intensification being over extra warm waters for a longer period of time.
 
Dtail said:
Yes every storm is different. My Ian comment was just thrown out there as an interesting point about huge movement late in the process. Hurricane Charlie and Irma also had huge movements east late in the process.

I wish I was wrong too about my prediction, but the NHC already changed the landfall to CAT 3 at the 5am update.

Lately, some storms coming up the west coast of FLA appear to have rapid intensification being over extra warm waters for a longer period of time.
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I think it will be pretty powerful at least at times and wouldn't be surprised if it hit CAT4 when offshore. The wildcard IMO is how large a storm it is as it approaches. Charlie was very powerful and destructive with wind but the field was relatively small so minimal flooding and a narrow swath of destruction.


If this storm has a large wind field and stays just offshore (with the worst weather to the east of the center) it would be the worst for us battering our coast and pushing water inland while maintaining strength over the warm Gulf. Unfortunately, we won't know until last minute as you point out!
 
Dtail said:
... My Ian comment was just thrown out there as an interesting point about huge movement late in the process. Hurricane Charlie and Irma also had huge movements east late in the process ...
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FROM: NHC 5 AM update:

It should be emphasized that only a small deviation in the track could cause a big change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the west coast of the state.
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I bought a portable electric generator during the spring 2023 tax holiday. I didn't think that I'd be using it so soon. Hopefully the storm stays offshore where it belongs. :)
 
FlaGator said:
After 25 years in FL and a few direct hits, I concluded that every storm is different, and preparation based on the history of the last one remembered is a bad idea.

If you’re in the cone, prepare as if it rolls over your house. If it shifts, be prepared to act fast, which requires one to pay attention all the time to what’s going on. If it doesn’t impact you, be grateful.
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+ Infinity

I used to have a friend who lived on Long Berach, NY. This is a barrier island off the south shore of Long Island about 20 miles east of Manhattan. He learned this lesson during Hurricane Sandy.

For the previous hurricane that theatened the area he (and most of his neighbors) evacuated, but then the storm shifted and Long Beach was unaffected. So when Sandy came to visit most of his neighbors stayed home. He lived right on the beach, adjacent to the boardwalk, on the 4th floor of an apartment building. When the storm surge came rolling in most of - if not the entire island - of Long Beach was under water. His car in the underground parking lot was under water. Looking out of his windows was like being on a ship at sea because the ground and the elevated boardwalk were under water. The second floor apartments in his building took a lot of damage. His fourth floor apartment was high enough to be safe from the storm surge.

And Sandy was only a Cat 1 hurricane.
 
At this time of year, we are so glad we live on the Northeast Coast. We do get the tail end of the storms that come up the West Coast but rarely get the main brunt of it. We are typically on the "dirty" side of the storms but in general it could be a lot worse. I do feel for the West coast folks, I do not think I have the stomach to live on that side. Wishing West coasters all the best and hoping that it will just be a heavy storm, frankly we could use the rain.
 
I am wondering if warmer than normal gulf water temperatures will make this fall a bigger problem than other years?
 
DFW_M5 said:
I am wondering if warmer than normal gulf water temperatures will make this fall a bigger problem than other years?
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Probably yes for more rapid intensification of storms, but not necessarily more storms.
 
DFW_M5 said:
I am wondering if warmer than normal gulf water temperatures will make this fall a bigger problem than other years?
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I think it's pretty well known that warmer sea temps tend to power these storms. Among many other things. I'll stop there. :)
 
DFW_M5 said:
I am wondering if warmer than normal gulf water temperatures will make this fall a bigger problem than other years?
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Actually, saw weatherman just an hour ago who said gulf temp was typical for this time of year. I didn't fact check what he said, just passing along what I heard.
 
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bobandsherry said:
Actually, saw weatherman just an hour ago who said gulf temp was typical for this time of year. I didn't fact check what he said, just passing along what I heard.
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About 1 to 2 degrees above normal, which can be significant.
 
socca said:
Here is my annual list of places for armchair storm watchers:

• https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

• https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=GEOCOLOR&length=150

• https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=277.22,23.13,1428/loc=-74.269,18.072

• https://spaghettimodels.com

• https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane

• https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Tropical Storm (future Hurricane?) Idalia is worth keeping an eye on. :popcorn:
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Those are all good. I like "Mike" which is the spagettimodel page. It is a bit busy.

If you want something stripped down and just show the model, then add weatherstreet to the list:

https://weatherstreet.com/
 
^^^^^
+1, used it for years.
 
bobandsherry said:
Actually, saw weatherman just an hour ago who said gulf temp was typical for this time of year. I didn't fact check what he said, just passing along what I heard.
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I just came across a Washington Post article that said the waters were record temps, as well as the land temps.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/08/28/record-heat-gulf-coast-water-temperatures/ (paywall, sorry)

The excessive heat lining the Gulf Coast is linked to the same record-warm gulf waters — in the upper 80s to near 90 — that are forecast to fuel Tropical Storm Idalia’s rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane before striking Florida’s west coast.

Gulfport, Miss., hit 107 degrees Saturday, marking “the hottest temperature ever observed for a site right on the Gulf coast anywhere in the U.S.,” weather historian Christopher Burt wrote in a message on Facebook. “The sea surface temperatures off Gulfport are at 88 as of today (Aug. 26), which is about as warm as they can be there.”
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I live in the middle of the cone. I'm fully prepared.
 

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cbo111 said:
I live in the middle of the cone. I'm fully prepared.
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For Hurricanes Irma (2017) and Ian (2022), my house was in the center of the cone early-on, and then the cone drifted as landfall approached. Both of these hurricanes just brushed by my house, creating a mess but no serious damage. My motto is "hope for the best; plan for the worst". It wouldn't take much to shift the current projected eye track eastward, potentially turning a minor mess into a major mess. :nonono:
 
Dtail said:
About 1 to 2 degrees above normal, which can be significant.
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Saw another local weatherperson who said warmer waters are better for predicting storm. Compared with Ian from last year, explained the cooler waters impacted the reliability of the models. As a result 2 days before Ian there was no consistency in the models. Gave little time for impacted areas to prepare. The models this storm are all in agreement. If true then at least impacted area won't significantly change last minute and those affected will have had time for preparations.
 
bobandsherry said:
Saw another local weatherperson who said warmer waters are better for predicting storm. Compared with Ian from last year, explained the cooler waters impacted the reliability of the models. As a result 2 days before Ian there was no consistency in the models. Gave little time for impacted areas to prepare. The models this storm are all in agreement. If true then at least impacted area won't significantly change last minute and those affected will have had time for preparations.
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TBH anyone on the west coast, from Marco Island and up, should be preparing. No model is infallible.

Being 95% accurate vs. 75% shouldn't change anyone's plans for caution. Anyone who has lived here for a while knows these things all jog. So many factors involved.
 
True hurricane story. In 2005 the highest wind hurricane in the Gulf Of Mexico was to hit Houston . 180 mph. A big Cane . Her name was Rita. 3.1 million people evacuated . This was a nightmare . I called my nephew who was a meteorologist for Universal Weather at Hobby Airport . Those guys work 12 hour shifts so he was sleeping . I asked him should we evacuate ? Every news station was saying run. He told me go outside and look to the SE . , there is where the storm is going stay home ….I’m going back to bed. He was right 4 people died in that storm ….from the evacuation. . He used to work at the Hurricane Center in Miami and he said the meteorologists that worked there ran pools where the storm would hit and he had won 4 pools .
 
Breedlove said:
He used to work at the Hurricane Center in Miami and he said the meteorologists that worked there ran pools where the storm would hit and he had won 4 pools .
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These days I just watch the Weather Channel and see where they send Jim Cantore to cover the storm. He seems to be a Hurricane landfall magnet. Look out Ceder Keys.
 
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