Inflation % Prediction for 2023 Year End

[Earl E Retyre]

3.4273 +/-

 

[Dtail]

21% or more. Massive counterfeiting by our government will devalue our currency. Buy anything you want now. It will cost a lot more later.

 

[Dtail]

3.75% by year end

 

[Rickt]

3.75% by end of 2023 as well

 

[11522914]

6.55%

 

[Midpack]

No harm in playing along, but I can’t imagine most of us could do better than a SWAG. Answers so far all all over the place.

I hope these “experts” are about right.

Jacobson expects core PCE to be closer to 3% by the end of 2023, which would align with the Fed’s predictions.

Economists at the central bank expect core PCE to fall to about 3.1% next year—although getting closer to the 2% target could take until 2025, according to a September 2022 SEP report.

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/inflation-outlook-2023/

 

[Dash man]

7.5%

 

[kmt1972]

Around 4% for the entire year

 

[jimbee]

2.71828%

 

[teejayevans]

2.5%

We will need to be in a severe worldwide recession for that to happen.

 

[freedom2022]

Best scenario: Fed will keep increasing interest rate. Recession and layoff, inflation will come down to 5% by the end of 2023.
Worst scenario: Fed will ease on increasing interest rate. History of 70's - 80's will repeat itself, inflation will come up above 10% by the end of 2023.

 

[pjm-7]

3.78%

 

[RobbieB]

I'll go with the price of green onions, 300%

 

[Gumby]

We will need to be in a severe worldwide recession for that to happen.

We might be in a worldwide depression by the end of 2023, but that is not required for the inflation rate to be 2.5%. In any event, we shall see what we see.

 

[kgtest]

Looks like the poll is missing 4.75%

 

[audreyh1]

I love financial headlines like this: Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise as Fed signals more pain ahead .

(completely contradictory)

 

[marko]

I'll bite: 4.15% by 12/31

(as of now, 4-ish seems to be the consensus)

 

[jollystomper]

5%

 

[milford]

No signs of things slowing down in Cali... just got notice that electricity price is going up about 15% for the year, natural gas price will be going up OVER 50% for the time being due to unprecedented demand for the cold winter, gas has creeped back up back to ~$5 a gallon, eggs at my local Aldi are now $4.5 a dozen and often times are still out of stock.

Barring an economic collapse this will be another tough year.... my guess is 6.2.

 

[foxfirev5]

Looking for 3-4% to be the new normal.

 

[Chuckanut]

From today's WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflat...eral-reserve-11672914903?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

As I recall, some of our illustrious members have been banging this drum for a few months. It's nice to see the WSJ has caught up.

The article is behind a paywall so here are a few quotes:

Over the past five months (June to November 2022), inflation has slowed to a crawl. Whether measured by the consumer-price index, or CPI, which most people watch, or the price index for personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, which the Federal Reserve prefers, the annualized inflation rate has been around 2.5% over these five months.

As mentioned, the CPI inflation rate over the past 12 months has been an alarming 7.1%. But the U.S. economy got there by averaging an appalling 10.6% annualized inflation rate over the first seven months and a mere 2.5% over the last five.

if you concentrate instead on “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, annual inflation over the past five months has run higher: a 4.7% annual rate for the CPI and 3.7% for the PCE. So the Fed’s fight against inflation isn’t over.

 

[audreyh1]

Are you sure Montecfo didn’t write that article? Because he has been using the last 5 months as his indicator and posted about it over in the current inflation discussions thread.

I also liked this intro:

Maybe we should start the new year with some good news: Inflation has fallen dramatically.

No, that’s not a prediction; it’s a fact. With one month remaining in 2022 (in terms of available data), inflation in the second half of the year has run vastly lower than in the first half. In fact—and this is astonishing—it’s almost back down to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Even more astonishing, hardly anyone seems to have noticed.

When the November CPI report came out last month I looked at the last 6 months and annualized: 1.85%x2 = 3.70% https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...ers-and-discussion-114292-48.html#post2866318

The December 2022 CPI release is on Jan 12 at 8:30 am. That should be set as a hard deadline for predictions in this thread.

BTW I have found that if I get the headline I can search for WSJ articles in Apple News and read them there. Probably not that many people here have Apple News subscriptions, but it’s a nice perk and thanks for all the handy WSJ articles you’ve alerted me to over the past year.

 

[Markola]

I’m most fascinated in others’ interpretations of a theoretical world with 0% monetary inflation. The gold standard wasn’t it, because the global gold supply inflates around 2%/year on average, according to market forces. What if there was only a certain amount of money for which everyone competed and which the government redistributed democratically? No more more of this creation of cash and inflation out of thin air. Would that be a more stable world? Academic notion but what the heck.

 

[Montecfo]

Are you sure Montecfo didn’t write that article? Because he has been using the last 5 months as his indicator and posted about it over in the current inflation discussions thread.

I think they follow me on twitter. I used 5 months at that time since inflation had peaked 6 months earlier and I wanted to highlight the new trend.

Inflation as measured by CPI has certainly declined, but the Fed loves PCE which has not declined as much, though trend is is definitely down.

 

[Hyper]

What they tell us inflation is x5!!