So I tried to do a few calculations and I think it is making some sense for me to give up the ACA subsidy, pay the full premium and bite the bullet on taxes.
There is no way to totally bring down the IRAs to zero but I don’t really want to anyway. We are likely to move to a CCRC with a large entry fee and then high monthly rents. A portion of these expenses can be funded with IRA money, but only the prepaid medical part, and that is only deductible above 10% of our AGI.
We will have 4 years before tax brackets are scheduled to go back up, 5 years before his SS kicks in and 7 years before his first RMD.
We are actually former Cheeseheads and currently in a zero income tax state so now would be a good time for conversions as we may possibly live in a state with taxes at some future point. I don’t want to rule it out.
I calculated it will cost 20k additional dollars to convert 82k (top of 12% bracket for us with divs and a small pension) for a total income tax rate of 18.69%
It will cost 40k additional dollars to convert 174k. (top of 22%) bringing total income tax rate to 20.10% and will likely incur level 1 IRMAA. For that reason I would likely only convert 163k to keep under 188,000.
Then I tried to think about what my rates would be in the future if my older, less healthy spouse does predecease me.
If I was 72 and widowed today with a 2.2mil IRA the RMD would be 86k. That 86k, plus the 25k pension/divs and 42k for Survivor SS already puts me in the 24% bracket (which actually will be the 28% bracket starting 2026) AND adds about 4k in IRMAA charges.
I don’t like paying the extra 8-10k each year in current health insurance premiums, but it is only for 5 years. The future IRMAA and higher tax rate for singles could go for many years and cost a LOT more.
Does it seem like I am thinking correctly here?
While I’m a single filer, there’s a lot applicable to me here. I’ve got 9 more years of ACA before Medicare. Premiums aren’t going down.
My current planning is to use the next few years to convert, and position the full portfolio properly, prior to TCJA expiring. Naturally, each year let’s you reassess as rates may change before that.
So the sacrifice now, could enable ACA subsidies for 4 or 5yrs down the road when premiums are even higher. Then it will reduce IRMAA later.