Notmuchlonger
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Dec 20, 2007
- Messages
- 4,764
So for the people who got "out" . Whats your criteria for getting back in?
So for the people who got "out" . Whats your criteria for getting back in?
If it's a typical recession than later this year should see bottom. If the de-leveraging continues (this is a solvency bust not liquidity) then ... we'll see.
Problem is I don't see where the long term growth will come from for the next decade. I believe that the global growth idea is a red herring, examining trade balances shows that it's all going here in the US, mostly due to home equity withdrawal which is over with.
I opine the money won't be as easy in the next decade as it was in the last.
You have confidence that you can pick the bottom?
(Shrug ...) I picked the exact top in local housing which is when I sold my house (still renting), picked the low in bonds and the top in stocks last year.
That's great. How about posting here when you identify the low and share some of the wealth? You'd make a lot of friends!
That's great. How about posting here when you identify the low and share some of the wealth? You'd make a lot of friends!
You know, nobody never ever takes advantage of your own experience and everybody needs to pay to make its own. When you see people catching falling knives and you try to deter them from doing so, they claim that for whatever reason they know what they do and they are confident that they'll make more money than anyone else... When a month or two later it's obvious that they could have made money going SHORT they just say that if they do not sell they have lost nothing etc.
I do not claim to be 100% right on the target. But most of the time when I've been (and that was more often than not, otherwise I would not have ER@45) and I've let others know of what I was doing (to foster discussion, challenge positions, try to improve myself), they usually dismissed my options for very good reasons and were doing something else.
You can't help people. Sometimes not even yourself as from time to time I keep re-doing previous, well known and well documented mistakes myself !
You know, nobody never ever takes advantage of your own experience and everybody needs to pay to make its own. When you see people catching falling knives and you try to deter them from doing so, they claim that for whatever reason they know what they do and they are confident that they'll make more money than anyone else... When a month or two later it's obvious that they could have made money going SHORT they just say that if they do not sell they have lost nothing etc.
I do not claim to be 100% right on the target. But most of the time when I've been (and that was more often than not, otherwise I would not have ER@45) and I've let others know of what I was doing (to foster discussion, challenge positions, try to improve myself), they usually dismissed my options for very good reasons and were doing something else.
You can't help people. Sometimes not even yourself as from time to time I keep re-doing previous, well known and well documented mistakes myself !
buy index funds for the long term. too busy enjoying life to worry about up/down of market.
Again some will tell me that TA is tea leaf reading. They should better say that they are not interested in it. Quantic mechanics is also tea leaf reading for those who do not want to know what it is about ! But in the end these are just models of some reality. Would not we talk about money and would we analyse graphs of physical phenomenons (or sociological behaviours - which is the case in fine) nobody would consider TA strange. Physicists keep on processing signal, doing FFTs, and so on and so forth. It's just a way of extracting useful information from phenomenons & signals.
I'm not selling TA here, just sharing a bit of my life and of what I enjoy.
It has crossed my mind many times, but has decided that to stay put.With all the talk of a tough time for the DOW and the US economy in the next year is anyone tempted to try to time the market by selling stocks before the recession hits; or maybe you've already done it............
Good luck to you. I hope you can escape befoe it causes you to lose too much money.
? sounds like market timing to me. It is sacrilegious on this forum and I find I can't do it, but I thoroughly understand your logic. Even though I don't agree with it. But you do have to admit to yourself that you are attempting to time the market. not a criticism, just an observation.We are not trying to time the market, however the market situation has caused us to pay more attention and we have taken the following actions:
(1) Liquified the majority of our positions in individual stocks in the US. We will hold onto our solid performers like Berkshire Hathaway, but some of the smaller positions we are going to close out.
(2) Transfer the cash to Australia. We are not certain how much long the US$ is going to hold up and as the Aussie $ has been so high it seems time to take this action.
(3) We have moved our 401k holdings to cash. We are prepared to sit on the sidelines for the next 6 months and watch how things play out.
(4) We are investing what cash we do have in Australia in the Aust equivalent of CD's - Term Deposits. It is possible to get as high as 7.75%.
Of course our situation is probably different from 99.999% of the people on this board. We are looking at 2008 as being our last year in the workforce and we will be moving to Australia to live, so in a sense all we have done is accelerate what we may have done in 12 months time.
? sounds like market timing to me. It is sacrilegious on this forum and I find I can't do it, but I thoroughly understand your logic. Even though I don't agree with it. But you do have to admit to yourself that you are attempting to time the market. not a criticism, just an observation.
You should not take this as an accusation and be defensive. I know that most (me included) on this forum don't think it is a good idea.I don't think what we are doing is market timing because the cash we are now withdrawing we will not be looking to put back in at any time.
(3) We have moved our 401k holdings to cash. We are prepared to sit on the sidelines for the next 6 months and watch how things play out.
You should not take this as an accusation and be defensive. I know that most (me included) on this forum don't think it is a good idea.
But I do think that market timing is a definition.
It is when you attempt to pick a high point to sell and a low point to buy. I believe that is what you are doing.