Longevity hotspots? Well, maybe.

[braumeister]

Interesting article in the Economist about the "supercentenarian hotspots" (aka the famous "Blue Zones"). But a new study raises an important reason for skepticism.

Paywalled, but a few points:

Places claiming to be centenarian hotspots may just have bad data

clusters of high reported longevity tended to occur in areas where record-keeping might conceivably be more lax, or where residents might have more incentive to claim pensions fraudulently
...
There were also curious paradoxes in the distribution of centenarians that could be easily explained by reporting errors. In Italy provinces where more people reach the age of 105 tend to have more people die before 55. On the island of Sardinia, renowned for its abundance of very old people, residents have among the lowest chances of reaching midlife of any Italians.

A correlating bit of evidence is that between 1841 and 1919, all the US states introduced a requirement for birth certificates, "making age estimates more accurate and fraud more difficult."

aligning data on the numbers of old people in each state with the date that birth registration was introduced, Dr Newman found that it resulted in a 69% drop in the prevalence of supercentenarians.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/09/28/places-claiming-to-be-centenarian-hotspots-may-just-have-bad-data

 

[ls99]

Maybe this will be another beatiful theory getting slayed by ugly facts.

 

[braumeister]

I'm sure it will provoke a lot of sturm und drang, both pro and con.
The data isn't formally published yet, so we'll have to see.

“Supercentenarian and remarkable age records exhibit patterns indicative of clerical errors and pension fraud”, by S. Newman, working paper; UN

 

[ncbill]

yeah I remember in Japan not too long ago the government wanted to celebrate centenarians.

but it turned out they had died years earlier & their relatives were just collecting their benefits.

 

[mickj]

"Blue zones" isn't science at all. Cherry picked locations and cherry picked information about each location. Mostly vegetarian propaganda.

 

[LateToFIRE]

"Blue zones" isn't science at all. Cherry picked locations and cherry picked information about each location. Mostly vegetarian propaganda.

+1

 

[Car-Guy]

My great grandfather was a centenarian, who passed away in the mid 1960's. I remember him well and often thought, wow, the changes he saw in his lifetime. And my mom and dad both lived into their 90's. If you call that living. All lived in the southern US. I've "personally" never known anyone past their early 90's doing much of anything beyond breathing. I "guess" it's better than the alternative. Maybe. Just not for me.

 

[braumeister]

I've "personally" never known anyone past their early 90's doing much of anything beyond breathing.

Nevertheless, it happens. I knew a gentleman who still rode the bus downtown to his office every morning at the age of 101. When he got there, he bought a newspaper, went up to his office and read it over a cup of coffee, made a few phone calls to friends, and went back home again. He loved his routine and was sharp as a tack. Kind of an inspiration to everyone.

 

[Car-Guy]

Agree. Just like becoming a billionaire... It happens, I just don't know any. Maybe that's what we all hope for, living to an old age and still being able to "do".

And my great grandfather who lived past 100, he too was still mentally sharp up until the day he died. Although in his case, he was bedridden since his late 90's. I can still remember visiting him and IIRC he didn't even have a radio in his room.

 

[Music Lover]

yeah I remember in Japan not too long ago the government wanted to celebrate centenarians.

but it turned out they had died years earlier & their relatives were just collecting their benefits.

It has been suggested that the oldest "verified" living person, Jeanne Calment, had really died years earlier and her daughter was posing as her.

 

[Car-Guy]

I don't think my Great grandfather got many (if any) old age benefits. Certainly no pension but he probably got some public assistance. They were dirt poor. I do recall hearing about the "presidential letter" that he received congratulating him when he turned 100, so I guess he was on some governmental list.

 

[braumeister]

It has been suggested that the oldest "verified" living person, Jeanne Calment, had really died years earlier and her daughter was posing as her.

Her story has a lot of doubt attached to it, and there have been several papers written to debunk it. But AFAIK no absolutely conclusive evidence has emerged because the family has refused permission to do any DNA testing.

There have been pretty well verified cases of people living to 117-119 years, so her 122 isn't really that far out of range.

 

[marko]

My great grandfather was a centenarian, who passed away in the mid 1960's. I remember him well and often thought, wow, the changes he saw in his lifetime. And my mom and dad both lived into their 90's. If you call that living. All lived in the southern US. I've "personally" never known anyone past their early 90's doing much of anything beyond breathing. I "guess" it's better than the alternative. Maybe. Just not for me.

My mom just passed last year at 93. She remained sharp as a tack, lived alone, drove her car everywhere. Two or three martinis a day to boot!.

She also climbed three stories of stairs a few times a day. I wanted to install an elevator but she wouldn't have it..."its the only exercise I get!"

Her grandfather died at 103. He tripped stepping over a low fence

 

[aja8888]

Nevertheless, it happens. I knew a gentleman who still rode the bus downtown to his office every morning at the age of 101. When he got there, he bought a newspaper, went up to his office and read it over a cup of coffee, made a few phone calls to friends, and went back home again. He loved his routine and was sharp as a tack. Kind of an inspiration to everyone.

He still had living friends to call? That's amazing in itself.

Heck, if I make it into my 90's, I'm going to start drinking and smoking again.

 

[lucky penny]

Her story has a lot of doubt attached to it, and there have been several papers written to debunk it. But AFAIK no absolutely conclusive evidence has emerged because the family has refused permission to do any DNA testing.

Re the 122-year old woman: The "doubt" was based on a theory (& scant evidence) that Calment was actually her daughter, who had pretended to be her mother after Calment died in her 50s, in order to avoid paying inheritance taxes. Hard to imagine no one would have noticed that. She still holds the Guinness record.

The great story about Calment is that when she was 90, a 47-year old lawyer in her French town bought a "life estate" in her apartment that allowed her to keep the home until she died, after which he would get it, & in the meantime he had to pay her $500 a month. 30 years later he died at 77, she was 120, & his heirs had to continue paying her. Ultimately, the heirs got the apartment, but he & his estate had paid out more than twice its value & he never got to live in it.

 

[Music Lover]

Her story has a lot of doubt attached to it, and there have been several papers written to debunk it. But AFAIK no absolutely conclusive evidence has emerged because the family has refused permission to do any DNA testing.

Possibly the oldest verified person in human history and they refuse to submit to testing. Add in the monetary aspect and I'm skeptical.

But I have no proof and she very well may have lived to 122.

 

[braumeister]

Possibly the oldest verified person in human history and they refuse to submit to testing. Add in the monetary aspect and I'm skeptical.

But I have no proof and she very well may have lived to 122.

Well, the Guinness records people checked it out extensively and stand by their certification, so I think that's probably good enough.

 

[Aerides]

Heck, if I make it into my 90's, I'm going to start drinking and smoking again.

Yeah when I quit smoking at 29 I told myself I'm allowed to start again at 80!

 

[mpeirce]

One of my 6th great grandfathers lived to be 102.

He was born on what the was frontier back in 1738 (west of the Hudson River in New York) and died in Ohio in 1841.

He fought in both the French & Indian War and the Revolutionary War.

Not bad really.