Lots of good news today

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travelover said:
It appears that the Russians have a vaccine and the Russian people have volunteered to safety test it for us. LINK

Hopefully not behind a paywall.
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... Putin said at a meeting with government members Tuesday, adding that one of his two daughters had received the potential Gamaleya vaccine. He didn’t identify which daughter. ...
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FWIW, it was his least favorite daughter. :LOL:
 
travelover said:
No, it is not safety tested, the Russian people have "volunteered" to do that for us.
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Yes, I understood. FYI, putin generally gets 9X% of the vote and more than one popular opposition candidate has been pretty blatantly murdered by the state.
 
brewer12345 said:
Yes, I understood. FYI, putin generally gets 9X% of the vote and more than one popular opposition candidate has been pretty blatantly murdered by the state.
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Yes, I'm well aware of his organized crime run kleptocracy. I just hope the vaccine "volunteers" don't end up doing a thalidomide rerun.
 
Interesting timing announcement by Putin. Let's see who runs with it over here.
 
travelover said:
Yes, I'm well aware of his organized crime run kleptocracy. I just hope the vaccine "volunteers" don't end up doing a thalidomide rerun.
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Yeah but perhaps we will now have more Lysol on the shelves. Just think about it.
 
USGrant1962 said:
The Johns Hopkins reopening map looks much better than a few weeks ago.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states
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Those graphs look great. Lots of peaks with nice downturns. I'm curious if there were mitigating actions taken at each state about two to three weeks before the chart peaks out? In TX maybe it was the bars reclosing four weeks before the chart peaked out? In NM it may have closing down indoor dining 2.5 weeks before the chart peaked out. I couldn't find if Florida did anything in mid to late June?
 
timo2 said:
Those graphs look great. Lots of peaks with nice downturns. I'm curious if there were mitigating actions taken at each state about two to three weeks before the chart peaks out? In TX maybe it was the bars reclosing four weeks before the chart peaked out? In NM it may have closing down indoor dining 2.5 weeks before the chart peaked out. I couldn't find if Florida did anything in mid to late June?
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Or as one early study suggested, every outbreak follows approximately the same trajectory almost regardless of actions taken. Most of the recent peaks are the first major outbreak in those states (except LA which clearly has had two outbreaks).

You can explore the history of each state's actions on this JHU page:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirmed-cases/texas

I think these two pages are relatively new at JHU - just a month old or so. They are both listed as "new" on the pulldown on the main page.
 
Jobless claims lower again

Weekly jobless claims came in at 963k, which was 282k lower than last week and sharply lower than the expected 1.1m.

Continuing claims also fell by 600k from last week.

It is a good sign that the economy is able to grow and add jobs despite lockdowns.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html
 
timo2 said:
... I'm curious if there were mitigating actions taken at each state about two to three weeks before the chart peaks out?.... I couldn't find if Florida did anything in mid to late June?
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Not really any event. Some counties put in mask-orders, but not all. If anything I think it might have been the news of daily 10k+ infections week after week that caused some folks to be more cautious. Which means we might then just relax too soon.

FL numbers also got a bit wobbly (seemingly quickly improved new cases) when Isaiahs came by, and most test sites closed for several days. Presumably our reporting is back to normal by now, but I'd give it at least another week to claim we've left our peak behind us.
 
Good news/bad news in IL.

Good news is daily deaths are way down, about 4x fewer than in May/June , and about flat at that lower level for over a month

More good news is that hospitalizations are also down to about 3x fewer than in May, and have been flat at this lower level for about a month and a half.

Bad news is, the local media and politicians are focused (like many in this thread) on "cases! cases! cases!!! People, cases are a function of testing. "Cases" w/o context is misleading, very misleading. More tests can mean more "cases", even if things are improving. The case numbers are getting people worked up for all the wrong reasons. Not only the number of tests, but the profile of the group being tested could be another variable (it hasn't been a random cross section at anytime, as far as I know).

Even the hospitalizations and deaths are somewhat questionable, as we can't be sure the same methodology has been followed for the reporting, but it is far more meaningful than "cases".

edit/add: And he news this morning (I generally tune out, I'm so frustrated at the bad reporting), keeps reporting single day numbers. Look at those graphs, the daily numbers are all over the place. Look at 7 day averages (I wish they had 30 day as well). I'm used to working with "noisy" data from my career, you need to apply some analysis to it or you come to very bad conclusions.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/illinois#historical

-ERD50
 
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harllee said:
At least with 14 new cases NZ was able to quickly do contact tracing and lock things down.
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NZ had 14 new cases (not sure how the virus snuck in) but they will get things under control soon since they do strict contact tracing, strict quarantine and the whole city of Aukland has gone under lock down.
 
harllee said:
...not sure how the virus snuck in....
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My guess is that the root cause will be found to have been the same as it always is in such cases - human failure.
 
I just heard on the news that the CDC has announced that after you test positive for Covid-19 you don't need to be tested again for 3 months. Does this mean the CDC has decided that a person has immunity for 3 months after they test positive for Covid-19? What I heard seemed confusing.
 
harllee said:
I just heard on the news that the CDC has announced that after you test positive for Covid-19 you don't need to be tested again for 3 months. Does this mean the CDC has decided that a person has immunity for 3 months after they test positive for Covid-19? What I heard seemed confusing.
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It’s confusing to me too, but it sounds like if you test positive with no symptoms you don’t need to be tested again for 3 months. They don’t say anything about people who develop symptoms.
 
harllee said:
I just heard on the news that the CDC has announced that after you test positive for Covid-19 you don't need to be tested again for 3 months. Does this mean the CDC has decided that a person has immunity for 3 months after they test positive for Covid-19? What I heard seemed confusing.
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It means they tested for a three month period after infection and found immunity.

It says nothing about after the three month period is over, probably because not enough time has passed. If feels like years, but in reality has only been months since this thing started.
 
MichaelB said:
It means they tested for a three month period after infection and found immunity.

It says nothing about after the three month period is over, probably because not enough time has passed. If feels like years, but in reality has only been months since this thing started.
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Well, even a 3 month immunity is better than what we were earlier thinking --that having Covid gave you no immunity. Would this mean that health care workers who have had Covid can now work with patients who are sick with Covid for at least 3 a month period without fear of recatching the disease?
 
it's "at least" 3 month immunity, tbd, etc.
 
ERD50 said:
..... Bad news is, the local media and politicians are focused (like many in this thread) on "cases! cases! cases!!! People, cases are a function of testing. "Cases" w/o context is misleading, very misleading. More tests can mean more "cases", even if things are improving. ...
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But aren't cases indicative of people who have been tested and confirmed to be infected with the virus... and were contagious for some period before they tested positive and will be contagious for some period after they test positive?

If so, wouldn't more cases (especially recent cases) possibly be a future indicator of spread?

Now OTOH, of those who do get infected less hospitalizations and deaths is obviously good news.
 
New Mexico had a quarantine placed on the state back in April. Anyone entering had to quarantine for 14 days; we changed our travel plans in June because of it. It is still in effect.

Hawaii also had a 14 day quarantine period for arriving residents and visitors. There were arrests made for folks who violated the quarantine, specifically those who stopped for groceries on their way home. It is still in effect.

New Zealand has also been in complete lockdown for months, their rate was extremely low for cases and deaths. Their lockdown was still in place, and just got stricter.

All three now have growing amount of cases and deaths, despite their efforts.
 
Winemaker said:
New Mexico had a quarantine placed on the state back in April. Anyone entering had to quarantine for 14 days; we changed our travel plans in June because of it. It is still in effect.

Hawaii also had a 14 day quarantine period for arriving residents and visitors. There were arrests made for folks who violated the quarantine, specifically those who stopped for groceries on their way home. It is still in effect.

New Zealand has also been in complete lockdown for months, their rate was extremely low for cases and deaths. Their lockdown was still in place, and just got stricter.

All three now have growing amount of cases and deaths, despite their efforts.
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I have been following NZ because I have spent time there and would like to go back. Until this week they had no new cases in 90 days (and have had no deaths in 90 days). Just this week they had 30 new cases and they have imposed a new lock down in Aukland where the cases occurred. They are doing extensive tracing to figure out where the new cases originated. According to what I have read there are 3 theories:

1. The virus came in on freight received from outside NZ. They think this is unlikely and if it were true--that Covid could survive on freight being shipped from far away over several days --that would be very bad for NZ and everywhere else.

2. The virus was circulating at a low level for 3 months in NZ and spread by asymptomatic carriers. This is also bad and would make it very difficult to stamp out the virus anywhere.

3. A few people (mainly New Zealanders) have been able to reenter the country and have to quarantine for 14 days. The third theory is that the virus came in on one of these persons. This would mean that maybe the 14 days is not long enough to quarantine or maybe a person with the virus flew to NZ and infected someone at the airport--but they are all masked and gowned and the encounters with passengers are very brief. I personally think that the most likelihood is that someone who was in 14 day quarantine sneaked out of quarantine somehow and spread the virus even though they are closely monitored.

However the new NZ cases originated it is bad--it most likely means the virus is even more infectious than was earlier believed.
 
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