March 22nd. FOMC FED Funds Rate Guess - Poll

[Car-Guy]

I guess this post is CLOSED now. On to Next Meeting on May 2nd. and 3rd. Speculations. New poll is warranted no doubt.

I'll cast the first vote... My guess -.50 to +.50... I'll firm that up the day before the meeting.

 

[Toocold]

Are we assuming that all the regional banks aren't going to crash and burn? j/k +25bps, then pause.

 

[SecondCor521]

Me too. Now can we predict the lottery numbers?

Hey, I'm in the cool kids club too.

The lottery numbers are going to be 3, 8, 14, 27, 31, and 35.

I'll tell you the name of the lottery and the date as soon as they're announced.

What was that? Serious case of whiplash! Most of it occurred in the last 20 mins before market close.

Almost like a flash crash.

CNBC commentators tentatively attributed it to a comment by Treasury Secretary Yellen to the effect that they're not planning on universally bailing out depositors' uninsured funds. She apparently said this right when the market changed directions.

Which is a little interesting, because Fed Chair Powell said nearly the opposite at about the same time.

:shrug:

 

[Montecfo]

Do you have a time stamp on that statement? Ha ha.

They have been clearly saying no rate cut this year for several months now.

I know. And yet the dots show rate cut late in year. Will be interesting to see the latest dots, though they have little true predictive value.

And I think if you go back into 2021 they were saying no rate hikes through the end of 2023.

The market desperately wants a pause, and with good reason honestly. How will the Fed avoid recession if they keep raising but do not wait the 12-18 months required for prior hikes to impact the economy?

 

[aja8888]

I know. And yet the dots show rate cut late in year. Will be interesting to see the latest dots, though they have little true predictive value.

And I think if you go back into 2021 they were saying no rate hikes through the end of 2023.

The market desperately wants a pause, and with good reason honestly. How will the Fed avoid recession if they keep raising but do not wait the 12-18 months required for prior hikes to impact the economy?

Today's Dot plot summary is in this short article;

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/22/f...ghtening-while-providing-liquidity-for-banks/

 

[Montecfo]

Today's Dot plot summary is in this short article;



https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/22/f...ghtening-while-providing-liquidity-for-banks/

Thanks. That is a bit different from my memory. But need to see out to end of 2024 also.

 

[NW-Bound]

Saw this thread just now, wandered in and saw the poll was still open. So, I voted. Heh heh heh...

Well, I was thinking 0.25% all this time, honestly. It's the thing that makes the most sense, given the situation.

What is harder is to anticipate the market reaction. I was busy and did not watch Powell press conference this time to see what caused the market to keep sliding down the chute.

Earlier in the morning when the market was in the green, I closed out most of the March 24 puts that I sold, then sold a few OTM calls. This was done for a small hedge against an adverse market movement.

The option premium for today was only $1K or so, compared to the $40K+ drop of my stocks today, but that's $1K less loss.

 

[MarieIG]

The financial winds are certainty blowing in all different directions. Two weeks ago I was sure it would be .50 and now I'm thinking .25 and I'm not sure about that. I could probably throw darts at a dart board and be just as sure. Hey wait a minute, does Powell have a dart board?

I think you are on to something there.

 

[Trailwalker]

My .50 guess was off, but the bank failures were an unexpected surprise. I guess the lesson is to vote closer to the next meeting.