March 22nd. FOMC FED Funds Rate Guess - Poll

[ShokWaveRider]

Still banking (pun intended) on 25bps

 

[Car-Guy]

^^^^^

+1

 

[PaunchyPirate]

Magic Eight Ball says 25bps.

 

[Freedom56]

25, pause, and ease the monthly QT by half.

 

[Chris7]

A few bank runs doesn't solve the inflation issue, but to try to show understanding that rates going up so fast can cause problems, they will switch to 25 BPs. If more banks don't need rescuing, probably 25 at the next meeting. If inflation shows signs of coming down, than maybe the pause at that point.


cd : O)

 

[pb4uski]

A few bank runs doesn't solve the inflation issue, but to try to show understanding that rates going up so fast can cause problems, they will switch to 25 BPs. If more banks don't need rescuing, probably 25 at the next meeting. If inflation shows signs of coming down, than maybe the pause at that point.


cd : O)

I think he'll use some variation of "The Fed will continue to be data driven" at least five times between his speech and in the Q&A.

These. 25 bps and focus on a message that job #1 is to tame inflation but they will be data driven and that any weakness of the economy caused by the banking crisis would be reflected in the economic data and MAY result in allowing them to pause earlier that they otherwise would, but only time will tell.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Getting down to the wire, we will know in 16 minutes.

 

[street]

I think raise .25%

 

[Car-Guy]

and it's official @ .25

 

[ShokWaveRider]

For all those that were correct, your prize is knowing that you were right all along. Those that stuck with their initial vote of .25bps and did not flip flop along the way are the ONLY ones entitled to this prize. Congratulations to all those folks of whom I am one. Your/our lives as prognosticators is just beginning.

 

[kgtest]

Raised rates .25% So my "guess was wrong". I thought they would keep the pedal to the metal at .5% but am glad they are at least tapering off.

Markets seem to like the news.

 

[Dtail]

For all those that were correct, your prize is knowing that you were right all along. Those that stuck with their initial vote of .25bps and did not flip flop along the way are the ONLY ones entitled to this prize. Congratulations to all those folks of whom I am one. Your/our lives as prognosticators is just beginning.

Me too. Now can we predict the lottery numbers?

 

[TheCaptain67]

What I found interesting was in the press conference, Powell alluded to probable credit restrictions that could come out of the banking mess. He said they factored those into their decision and that they acted in the same way as increases in interest rates.

Seems like he was hinting that absent the banking mess, the increase might have been larger ?

 

[pb4uski]

That isn't surprising to me.

 

[audreyh1]

What I found interesting was in the press conference, Powell alluded to probable credit restrictions that could come out of the banking mess. He said they factored those into their decision and that they acted in the same way as increases in interest rates.

Seems like he was hinting that absent the banking mess, the increase might have been larger ?

Yes, I suspect otherwise it would have been 50 basis points which he had hinted at right before the recent bank failures.

 

[Car-Guy]

Agree with the post directly above AND directly below...

 

[Born2Fish]

Powell made it clear to me that the Fed does not envision easing anytime soon. I think easing is NOT in the picture.

I don't think that market interpreted it the same as me...

 

[cyber888]

Seems like there is one more 0.25 rate hike after this 0.25 today, or even pause, with terminal rate at 5.1%. Then hold it till end of the year.

 

[audreyh1]

What was that? Serious case of whiplash! Most of it occurred in the last 20 mins before market close.

Almost like a flash crash.

 

[Born2Fish]

What was that? Serious case of whiplash! Most of it occurred in the last 20 mins before market close.

Almost like a flash crash.

That is what I THOUGHT would happen immediately after Powell finished. Guess it took a while to sink in.

 

[audreyh1]

That is what I THOUGHT would happen immediately after Powell finished. Guess it took a while to sink in.

That close to a close is a little fishy.

 

[Montecfo]

Fed raised .25 and...wait for it... treasury interest rates fell virtually across the board. All but the 1Month treasury declined.

It appears the top in rates has long been in.

 

[Montecfo]

What was that? Serious case of whiplash! Most of it occurred in the last 20 mins before market close.

Almost like a flash crash.

"Following the central bank’s latest decision, major U.S. indexes rose. Then, stocks turned down after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference that a rate cut this year wasn’t part of the central bank’s “baseline expectation.” "

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-03-22-2023-a552669c

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I guess this post is CLOSED now. On to Next Meeting on May 2nd. and 3rd. Speculations. New poll is warranted no doubt.

 

[audreyh1]

"Following the central bank’s latest decision, major U.S. indexes rose. Then, stocks turned down after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference that a rate cut this year wasn’t part of the central bank’s “baseline expectation.” "

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-03-22-2023-a552669c

Do you have a time stamp on that statement? Ha ha.

They have been clearly saying no rate cut this year for several months now.