I don't time the market in the way that most people mean when they say market timing. In general, I hate to discuss investing because people almost always put up some strawman or red herring, which often involves some impossible criterion for success, or some bit of folk knowledge that may have or have had some validity but is clearly less than universal.
But in 40 years of active investing, I have never failed to vary my exposure to various equities depending on my assessment of risk/rewards. I walked into the 2008 downturn close to fuly invested, but I think that will be the last time.
Overall, intelligent timing which I think of as avoiding big risk will tend to pay off over time. I missed much of the late 90s blow off, but I also missed the aftermath as I was heavily invested in "the old economy", in particular tobacco stocks.
I perceive the dominant style on this board, as on other right thinking forums, to be agnosticism about expectations. That just isn't my personality, I will often have an opinion.
I remember sometime in the 00s, we were discussing Robert Shiller's first book Irrational Exuberance. I posted that I thought that although this was not what is often meant by market timing, it was in fact a very effective form of timing, and perhaps almost the only effective form there was or could be. A very popular, outspoken and verbose former denzen on this board pointed out that Shiller would have had us out of the market since the mid 90s. True indeed, but that is the reality of trying to minimize risk. It is not realistic think that you can ride a wild boom and be certain to dive off just before the crash. Like many other games of chicken, it can pay to be chicken when things are getting crazy.
Ha
While I think for the average person market timing is a fool's errand. I don't think this board is average when it comes to investment skills. As Buffett says temperament is more important than intelligence. To a large extent the same traits, the willingness to question conventional wisdom (what I don't to wait till 65 to stop working) that make somebody a good candidate for ER are the same traits that make some potentially a good investor.
It is rather gratifying to all the threads wondering if the market high means it is time to sell/rebalance etc. This is exactly the right view and probably quite a bit different than the average investor who sees a record high and thinks well I guess it is safe to get back into to stocks
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My AA has changed from just over 50/50 in 2000, to as high as 90% in early 2009. Like Ha I walked into the 2008 meltdown fully invested.
The internet bubble was painful, but would have been far worse, if I hadn't listened to smart people, and just as importantly done my own analysis that convinced me that the stock market as a whole and internet stock were crazily overvalued and took rather dramatic action.
There were less people predicting the 2008 meltdown, than the internet bubble bursting but board member RunningMan made many post about the coming credit/housing bubble. Now predicting a bear or bull market is easy, what isn't easy is making a cogent argument supporting your view in the face of conventional wisdom, he did. The same way Buffett did in July 1999. I don't beat myself up for not selling in 2008, I do beat myself up for not reading posts like RunningMan, thinking to myself he makes some good point and not doing some further analysis.
Likewise, there were plenty of people on this board all presenting argument passed on historical data that stocks were cheap at the end of 2008 and in 2009. If you sold out in 2008 and read the boards in 2009, you owed to yourself to at least question am I doing the right thing not buying stocks in 2009.
Right now I don't have a strong opinion on the stock market. Yes it has gone up pretty far pretty fast, but on an inflation adjusted basis it is 13% below its
2000 peak. This despite significantly higher profits and an economy which is 19% larger now than it was in 2000 (after inflation).
On the other hand I still hate bonds and I so I hold as little of them as possible, cause I agree with Buffett, bonds are "reward free risk" Now hating is bonds is pretty popular both on the board, and by most money managers, but it is worth remembering that until recently there have been huge outflows of money from stock into bonds, even while the market has rallied.