Between now and then I'll turn 59. I've run my numbers through every simulator I can find in addition to my own spreadsheets. If I use my most pessimistic assumptions (e.g. - only get 50% of the expected equity when selling our house, only get 75% of my SS), Firecalc has me at an 86% success rate. If I use "normal" assumptions, I am at 95-100% success.
There are a few things that worry me:
1) Sequence of return risk. Market is currently up as are my investments. That can certainly change. And with 2 kids graduating HS next year, reducing my expenses within the next 1-2 years is highly unlikely. After that, I am only planning on a 5-10% reduction in expenses per year for a few years. That could change as well.
2) I will need healthcare to cover the gap and that cost is definitely something that could change. I've gone through the ACA enrollment process so I know what my costs will be this year. After that is anybody's guess. So I've estimated on the high side.
But one of the things that I've always done well is adapt. So I'm not going to worry too much.
Wish me luck.
There are a few things that worry me:
1) Sequence of return risk. Market is currently up as are my investments. That can certainly change. And with 2 kids graduating HS next year, reducing my expenses within the next 1-2 years is highly unlikely. After that, I am only planning on a 5-10% reduction in expenses per year for a few years. That could change as well.
2) I will need healthcare to cover the gap and that cost is definitely something that could change. I've gone through the ACA enrollment process so I know what my costs will be this year. After that is anybody's guess. So I've estimated on the high side.
But one of the things that I've always done well is adapt. So I'm not going to worry too much.
Wish me luck.