New Fuel Economy Standards (CAFE)

[Lazarus]

Okay then, let me give a refresher course in "How to screw up a major branded product 101", since it seems that the new coke debacle isnt well remembered.

Coke was a flagship worldwide branded product with a rapidly growing competitor that had a sweeter, somewhat different tasting product, Pepsi. Seeing that Pepsi was quickly catching up to them in product sales, Coke elected to change their product recipe to simulate Pepsi, drop their regular product, and "join them if you cant beat them". Clearly this was a fundamental error in judgment on behalf of company management.

People bought Coke because they liked Coke, it was what they wanted to drink, and because it was probably what they'd been drinking for years. Changing the formula meant that most of your existing customers would stop buying it because it was no longer the same. In parallel, there was no reason for existing Pepsi drinkers to say "well hey, this new coke tastes almost the same, lets abandon what we know and like for this other thing!". All the advertising in the world wouldnt change that, because there was no impetus for existing customers to stay and no reason for prospective customers to switch.

The approximate equivalent would have been Chevy saying "well, those Ford truck guys were right and they make better trucks, so we're going to make a near duplicate of the Ford pickup, except we're going to put a Chevy badge on it.". Ford buyers arent likely to stop buying Fords and start buying Chevy's that are just about the same as Fords. And your long time Chevy buyers arent going to be thrilled with it either.

This isnt a case of "lets make something people dont want and then shove it down their throat with advertising that makes them do things they otherwise wouldnt", its "Lets excite people about buying what they want anyway - a big powerful heavy safe vehicle that makes them feel big and powerful, then build lots of what they really want."

The advertising isnt creating the demand, its simply helping elevate the original desire in the customer.

Creating an advertising and product strategy around small fuel efficient cars would be like the Beef industry putting up ads telling you that tofu and broccoli are better for you, so eat that instead. Its not what you want. On the other hand, putting on a "BEEF! Its whats for dinner!!!" while showing large sizzling slabs of meat on a grill? That'll work.

Perhaps theres a fundamental disconnect in that people here think that the average american consumer cares about oil economics and politics and wants to do the right thing for the country and the earth.

People are largely interested in being comfortable, serving their own base needs, covering up their inadequacies and avoiding things they fear (or conquering them).

Marketing and advertising simply plays on those instincts.

Except for a small percentage of intelligent, earth-crunchy people, gas mileage isnt of interest for most people. In a recent survey I saw of car buying criteria, gas mileage hovered in the #4/#5. With $3.25 gas in evidence.

The car buying public is more interested in speed, safety, power, comfort and reliability, not mileage or emissions. The car companies make more money selling big, feature rich vehicles with big motors and aggressive looks.

Its a win/win for the car makers and the buying public...all the latter needs is just a little push.

By the way, I'm not getting the Lexus stuff. Its just proving my point. My wife was advertised into believing that a Toyota with a different name on it would tell everyone that she's wealthy and powerful and has "arrived", and she never had a nice new expensive car before. I had no need to deny her something that she wanted.

/Well said!

 

[mb]

[/i]

Whether gas is $2,$3, $4, or more is immaterial to some extent. UPS, FedEx, and all the trucking companies aren't going to reduce their consumption of gas, they can't. The consumer can lower overall demand but not make a HUGE difference, IMHO.......
....

Not necessarily true. Delivery applications such as those that you site are among the very best applications for hybrids because of all of the stops and starts.

MB

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Its a short matter of time before package delivery involves rail freight to a number of distributed central stations and you go get your own when it comes in.

To-the-door delivery is simply not going to be financially feasible.

I think centralization in a lot of products will go the same route. Neighborhood grocery stores will fall to cheaper more centralized warehouse style grocery sales.

 

[samclem]

To-the-door delivery is simply not going to be financially feasible.

Not when the courier s running up the driveway with a singe Matchbox car one day and a potholder the next! (see http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/recomend-crock-pot-slow-cooker-31885-2.html for more on CFB's feud with his USPS carrier)

On a serious note, I don't know if centralized pickup of consumer goods will be the model (rather than having them delivered to homes, as they are now). It's certainly less efficient (fuel and manhour wise) for 40 people tp make a trip to/from a centralized pickup spot than to have the items delivered on a well designed route. Add in the inconvenience of waiting in line and muscling heavy items out to the car, and I think people would choose to pay more to have the item delivered to their home. Which, I think, is exactly what is happening now (with the delivery price incorporated into the price of the item).

 

[Zathras]

Actually they can reduce their fuel consumption.
UPS instructed its drivers to plan their routes to take as few left turns as possible. In NYC alone UPS has saved millions of gallons of gas.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/09/magazine/09left-handturn.html

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I dont think UPS is very interested in customer delivery related costs or nationwide system efficiency that includes a customer picking up their packages.

Hell, the USPS already did a "come get it" to me once, as described in the referenced thread.

Which has worked out great for that guy. He avoided one trip up the driveway with a heavy package and has made about 30 largely unnecessary trips as a result. Today it was pouring rain. I mean, coming down in absolute gigantic buckets.

I saw his truck pull up out front and alerted Ted to be at the ready...

 

[clifp]

You arent really expecting that the people who floor it through a stop sign to get to the next red light .2 seconds faster and who pass you on the right in the breakdown lane on an entrance ramp to get into heavy traffic one car further up are going to make good long term rational decisions about this matter, are you?

Absolutely, I always expect people to make rational decisions about everything using a 10+ year planning horizon, while also carefully balancing the welfare of society at large vs their personal desire.

Of course, I also root for the Cylons to wipe out the hUmans in Battlestar so I guess I'm not typical.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

The "new" cylons certainly are a bit better looking than the old ones, arent they?

At least the female ones.

 

[jazz4cash]

I work with trucking companies. Some would be surprised how efficient and technically capable UPS is. Also very practical as they never let thier highway drivers run over 55mph...ok maybe 59. Never compare them to USPS (though they also do a fine job managing thier trucks). The point-to-point logistics are great, but the home delivery part is not efficient at all. I am surprised they have not implemented a regional delivery at a very reduced cost program (like the big box stores have) I am currently trying to buy an item that Wal-Mart no longer carries in thier stores. Its a 30-40 dollar item, but the delivery charge for online order is 25 dollars.