Do you have ACA concerns? AT 55 times spend rate once you add SS and RMD's your taxes will be going up anyway.
In a previous post I detailed it like this.
"Yes, I don't need to, I probably could stay in the 12% bracket, problem is I can't predict tax rates in the future. What I can predict is I could have almost a double in my tax deferred accounts by the time the wife and I are 72. That puts our RMDs over $100,000 add $50k for two SS checks and dividends on the taxable accounts, and our tax bracket is high? So, maybe 22% isn't so bad."
You have a lot of moving parts. I'd be loath to deplete the Roth for living expenses in your shoes.
Maybe, but I don't expect to ever touch my Roths, between SS and RMDs, I expect it to be way more than our spending.
Can you do some long term tax modeling? Have you a guesstimate on the amount of your SS and RMD's.
Long term tax modeling, I'd like to, but not sure how. It seems it would involve a lot of guessing, Re: market growth and future tax rates.
As said about $150k of SS and RMDs, if we have no great market upheaval.
Pulling from the IRA might be a wash as far as taxes are concerned. I'm with Sunset on that point.
If it's a wash, then I see the advantage that I reduced my RMDs. First year RMD $70k x 6 years growth x 3.65%. At 7% that is $105k x 3.65% = $3,832.
If lucky the tax bracket stays at 22% I pay $843 in taxes. If the market is good and tax rates go even higher, (I expect this) Then it could $1200.
This is not huge, but converting over the next 10 years it gets bigger and the RMD percentage goes up every year. I have a friend at 12.3% RMD, he's 96!
Agreed, just looking for the best financially. All I'm doing is optimizing for my kids, and I hope it makes no difference to their finances. Hopefully they will be in their 50s and financially secure.