R0

[eytonxav]

My DD was telling me that the R naught of the new Covid variants is much higher than previous variants and is now rivaling measles in terms of transmissibility. I found the following which seems to confirm what she told me. Further there is a new stain that could be even worse. Hopefully, these will cause milder symptoms and if not, it does not bode well for the population:
https://www.yahoo.com/video/move-over-measles-dominant-omicron-203027510.html

 

[W2R]

My DD was telling me that the R naught of the new Covid variants is much higher than previous variants and is now rivaling measles in terms of transmissibility. I found the following which seems to confirm what she told me. Further there is a new stain that could be even worse. Hopefully, these will cause milder symptoms and if not, it does not bode well for the population:
https://www.yahoo.com/video/move-over-measles-dominant-omicron-203027510.html

Oh lovely (NOT!!).

Thanks for letting us know. Guess I should fill up the pantry and freezer again, and buy a new video game.

Glad I'm not in NYC, since it sounds like they are expecting to get slammed by this one. On the other hand, maybe I'm no better off. New Orleans and NYC were hit by the very first Covid really hard, early in the pandemic and at the same time.

 

[Irishgirlyc58]

I was reading that the other day.
As a retired administrator over a local public health department I can tell you one of their worst fears was Covid becoming as contagious as measles.
It may even be surpassing measles.
I think a new video game is a great idea!

 

[Beldar]

I don't need to catch it a third time. Fortunately, we've learned a lesson and can hunker down (again) for a extended time if necessary.

_B

 

[2HOTinPHX]

I posted this a few days ago in another thread. Seems like news is just starting to talk Covid again.

Seems like every time we think its getting safe out there we start hearing more news like this on Covid....Saw similar report on the ABC evening news tonight...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/05/healt...isk/index.html

From CNN

Repeatedly catching Covid-19 appears to increase the chances that a person will face new and sometimes lasting health problems after their infection, according to the first study on the health risks of reinfection.

The study, which is based on the health records of more than 5.6 million people treated in the VA Health System, found that, compared with those with just one Covid-19 infection, those with two or more documented infections had more than twice the risk of dying and three times the risk of being hospitalized within six months of their last infection. They also had higher risks for lung and heart problems, fatigue, digestive and kidney disorders, diabetes and neurologic problems.

The findings come as a fresh wave of coronavirus variants, notably Omicron’s BA.5, have become dominant in the United States and Europe, causing cases and hospitalizations to rise once again. BA.5 caused about 54% of cases nationwide last week, doubling its share of Covid-19 transmission over the past two weeks, according to data posted Tuesday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. BA.5 carries key mutations that help it escape antibodies generated by both vaccines and prior infection, leaving many people vulnerable to reinfection.

Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis, led the research, which was posted as a preprint ahead of peer review. He said he decided to do it after watching reinfections become more and more common among his own patients.

“If you asked me about reinfection maybe a year and a half ago, I would tell you that maybe I have a patient here or there, but it’s really, really rare,” Al-Aly said. That’s not true anymore, though.

“So we asked a simple question that if you got Covid before and now you’re on your second infection, does this really add risk? And the simple answer is that it does.”

bad news..Local...

Nine of Arizona’s 15 counties are now in a high level of COVID-19 community transmission.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Coconino, Yavapai, Mohave, Apache, Navajo and others have all experienced rising infections in recent weeks.

The CDC recommends all people in areas of high transmission wear masks indoors in public and take additional precautions.

The most recent virus report released on Friday showed cases were on the rise after a slight decline since early June.

Statewide, COVID infections have increased since early May but still remain well below the pandemic’s all-time high point last January.

More than 16,500 cases have been confirmed in Arizona in the last week.

 

[W2R]

I don't need to catch it a third time.

Wow! Somehow I missed that you caught it twice already. Hope you got the "just the sniffles for a week" variety instead of the "respirator and month in the ICU" variety. Either way, my sympathies.

Fortunately, we've learned a lesson and can hunker down (again) for a extended time if necessary.

I can do that pretty easily too, since I am an introvert and a home body who doesn't like to travel. All I need for companionship and affection is Frank, who lives next door. He always has something new and interesting on his mind to talk about. With him to talk to, and the internet to explore, and my books and video games, there's no way I could get bored here at home.

But that said, it seems most our forum members do love to travel. Many have waited for decades or more, for the chance to go to places I'd pay good money to avoid. It's their dream! So staying home can be awful, nearly tragic, for them.

Also there are the children. Covid restrictions have already marred the childhood development (physical, mental, and emotional) of a generation of kids, and I hate to see more lives affected by it.

Probably the happiest thing I have seen in the past few years was the playground at a local school, soon after the mask requirement was removed. Kids were playing soccer, jumping rope, running after one another, hugging one another, laughing, and so on, some with masks on and others with masks off, and the ecstatic smiles were contagious.

 

[eytonxav]

I am also hearing that even mild covid can cause longer term brain damage. As far as we know, DW and I never contracted covid, but who knows whether what we assumed to be allergies or a sniffle wasn't covid

 

[donheff]

Repeatedly catching Covid-19 appears to increase the chances that a person will face new and sometimes lasting health problems after their infection, according to the first study on the health risks of reinfection.

Interesting. I wonder if this is because Covid damage is cumulative and it can happen to anyone somewhat randomly, or is it the other way around and some people are simply more susceptible to Covid and thus get infected more frequently and hit harder.

 

[harllee]

A dear friend died 2 days ago of Covid complications. He was in his 80s and this was his second bout with Covid. He had the first 2 shots but as far as I know no booster. The first time he had Covid (last winter) it was fairly mild. According to his wife it looked like this second bout was going to be mild too. He tested positive for covid 10 days ago, seemed to be getting over it (not sure if he had the antivirals) and then suddenly 3 days ago got much sicker and then collapsed and was dead before he could get to the hospital. He is going to be greatly missed.

 

[Chuckanut]

Speaking of predictions, who back in January predicted this new nasty variant BA.5 that is so very infectious? None of the big name talking heads did, IIRC. So far I have avoided getting Covid, but most of my friends and relatives have had it. Sometimes I feel like I have a target on my back.

I know a number of people who have traveled in Europe this year. One couple returned after a three week tour in France and German and had no Covid problems. Another group of six is currently there. They are wallowing in the glory of the dollar-euro parity, and so far - no Covid.

My big trip this year is in the American West and Southwest. Mostly nature destinations such as national parks, monuments, state parks and old mining towns that are now scenic tourist traps. Mostly outside activities and I will keep it way. N95 masks for crowded indoors except when eating. Can I say Picnics? You bet!

I had planned a European trip for this year, but a sudden health issue made me think it best to cancel that while I could get all my money back. I must admit I have some regrets about that. But, the above road-trip is mostly to areas I have never been to in the USA, and that's good. I bought my Hybrid vehicle three years ago (just before Covid) because I wanted to drive it many many miles, at least 250,000. I want to claim I could have driven it to the moon. Sadly, I am well behind where I want to be.

Back to predictions..... The future is always uncertain At my time of life, putting off trips for 3,4 or 5 years is no longer a reasonable option. There aren't many decades of future left. Plan, execute, adjust as necessary. Half a loaf is better than none.

 

[HawkeyeNFO]

I am also hearing that even mild covid can cause longer term brain damage.

My years at a college known for its parties already killed off any of the weaker neurons, so I'm not too worried about brain damage.

 

[Scuba]

It seems that everyone we know has gotten back to their pre-COVID lifestyle, generally planning and going on long-delayed trips, masking where required but not generally, and attending large events such as graduations and weddings. Once people realized there would likely be a never-ending stream of new variants, I think most got boosted and are now trying to live their remaining “good years” fulfilling their bucket list dreams while they can. Many friends and neighbors have had COVID at least once, and fortunately we don’t know anyone who’s had lasting effects.

When people thought the pandemic had a finite, relatively short lifespan, they hunkered down. Now that we understand there is no end in sight, people are adapting in ways that they find acceptable and moving on with life.

 

[harllee]

My years at a college known for its parties already killed off any of the weaker neurons, so I'm not too worried about brain damage.

Not a joking matter. My mother was in very good shape until she had Covid in February. She never has fully recovered and the worst part is the "brain fog" she lives with.

 

[Katsmeow]

Yes, the R0 is much higher.

From what I read the original Covid had an R0 of 3.3

Delta was 5.1

Original Omicron 12 9.5

BA.4/Ba.5 - 18.6

This supposedly ties or is worse than measles which was the world;s mot infectious disease.

This latter number is from a pre-print publication from South Africa.

https://theconversation.com/austral...eres-what-to-expect-from-ba-4-and-ba-5-185598

So, my understanding is that is what this one report says about the current variant but I imagine they will want more reports to be certain.

Anecdotally, I will say that a number of people who never had Covid and have been careful have gotten it recently.

DH - vaccinated and double boosted - got it about 5 weeks ago. We think he got it from DS. DS was also vaccinated and boosted. I never got it. A friend of mine who was vaccinated and boosted once got it about a month ago. Several other people were reported to me.

DH and DS and my friend all had mild cases. DS was the most mild -- some minor congestion. The other had coughing and tiredness. DH had fever for the first two days. Both DH and my friend took Paxlovid (neither had rebound).

I have not had it (AFAIK) and am vaxxed and double boosted. I mostly no longer mask unless required or if I am going to be indoors for an extended time where I think people might not all be vaccinated. I went to a funeral in May and we masked for that. We have considered taking a trip that we could fly to or drive. We've decided to drive since I don't really feel comfortable with plane travel right now.

 

[Beldar]

Wow! Somehow I missed that you caught it twice already. Hope you got the "just the sniffles for a week" variety instead of the "respirator and month in the ICU" variety. Either way, my sympathies.

Thanks. Both times for DW & I it was just like a massive head cold. The second go-around added chest congestion and a cough.

The third infection will probably transform me into some Borg-like creature.


_B

 

[W2R]

Thanks. Both times for DW & I it was just like a massive head cold. The second go-around added chest congestion and a cough.

The third infection will probably transform me into some Borg-like creature.


_B

I hope not! Take care, and let's hope there isn't a third infection.

 

[harllee]

Why are many people getting Covid a second and third time? At one time it was thought that having Covid gave you some immunity. Is this no longer the case? Is this because of the new BA5 variant?

 

[Katsmeow]

Why are many people getting Covid a second and third time? At one time it was thought that having Covid gave you some immunity. Is this no longer the case? Is this because of the new BA5 variant?

Even for the earlier varieties of Covid, immunity wasn't forever. Maybe several months or sometimes longer. However, the Omicron varieties had a shorter immunity period and my understand is that this one that is so infectious now avoid avoids immunity or has immunity for only a very short period of time.

 

[2HOTinPHX]

Just watched an interview on PBS...This week, the CDC said BA.5 is now the dominant strain in the U.S. accounting for more than 60 percent of cases. It is also the most transmissible variant to date. Dr. Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, joins William Brangham to discuss.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/new-covid-variant-ba-5-prompts-higher-infections-and-reinfections

Some take aways from transcript:

So, BA.5 is here. Some people have been arguing, well, it doesn't seem to be that deadly and doesn't seem to be driving that many people into the hospital. Is there some comfort to be taken in that? Is that true?

Dr. Eric Topol, Scripps Research Translational Institute:

It is indeed, true,.

The point is, we have an immunity wall from all the prior vaccinations and infections and those combinations and boosters. So it isn't having the effect that we saw with the first Omicron, BA.1.

The problem with all the added mutations that the BA.5 has, on top of what was BA.1 and 2 and 2.12.1, it has more mutations, which basically makes it an escape artist. That is, our immune system doesn't recognize it like we did the previous versions to the virus.

And that's why some people who have had BA.1 in January, February are getting BA.5 here in July. So, this reinfection is a very significant signature of immune escape. It's the most reinfections we have seen since the beginning of the pandemic because it's the most immune escape of any variant.

One last question.

And I have traveled a fair amount around the country recently, and almost everywhere we go, despite the fact that we know that this virus is everywhere, people have moved on. Masks are increasingly uncommon. Bars and restaurants are crowded. Airplanes are crowded again.

I mean, do you feel like the horse has sort of left the barn, and this idea that we need to — like, this idea of people taking boosters or putting their masks back on, it just feels like the country is not there.

Dr. Eric Topol, Scripps Research Translational Institute:

You're absolutely right.

It's sad, because we basically have capitulated to the virus. And our fatigue and are trying to will it away, it just doesn't work, because the virus continues to evolve. We have never had an ability to contain it. So it's very likely things will get worse because of our unwillingness to try to keep up our guard.

And you either have to go aggressive, which we're not, or you surrender, which, unfortunately, largely, we are.

 

[audreyh1]

Why are many people getting Covid a second and third time? At one time it was thought that having Covid gave you some immunity. Is this no longer the case? Is this because of the new BA5 variant?

It’s a coronavirus. Immunity wanes.

Plus the variants have been different enough to reinfect people with prior infections. This “immunity escape” started to be common with Delta, but was much worse with different variants of Omicron.

Doesn’t matter whether vaccinated or prior infection.

Immunity waning, immunity escape = double jeopardy.

I guess there is a triple jeopardy in that each variant has been increasingly contagious such that BA.5 is as contagious as measles and airborne like measles (all Covid variants have been airborne).

Meanwhile few seem to worry about airborne transmission anymore……