Risk/Reward question

lawman

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I know nothing about those numbers that describe risk and volatility for mutual funds. I'm considering selling VFIDX and replacing it with BLNDX..BLNDX is an all weather fund that on face looks like it would be VERY risky and volatile but the historical share prices are very stable regardless of what equities and bonds are doing..Is BLNDX a relatively safe investment?
 
You cannot have both safe and high return at the same time (if such a thing existed, we would all rush in and spoil your party). Investments give you winning returns over time precisely because they are not safe in the short term.

BLNDX's stated goal is to match total world equity funds. It's happened to do well recently as it moved half to cash. However, anything active enough to move half its funds in to cash is overwhelmingly likely to miss out in the long run by leaving you out of the market when you should be back in. This looks like a classic terrible product for the customer (an outrageously expensive 1.28% expense ratio) and if it can move so much in and out of cash, will leave with with a tax bill too.

The way to turn the tables on the Wall Street casino is to avoid these games where they are making all kinds of complex bets and instead stick with the low fee index funds like you are already in. Then, you become "the house", winning as the market moves up over time while the folks that got fooled by Wall Street's slick marketing are all busy betting against the pros.

So relax, your S&P 500 fund is a fine place to be over time.
 
You cannot have both safe and high return at the same time (if such a thing existed, we would all rush in and spoil your party). Investments give you winning returns over time precisely because they are not safe in the short term.

BLNDX's stated goal is to match total world equity funds. It's happened to do well recently as it moved half to cash. However, anything active enough to move half its funds in to cash is overwhelmingly likely to miss out in the long run by leaving you out of the market when you should be back in. This looks like a classic terrible product for the customer (an outrageously expensive 1.28% expense ratio) and if it can move so much in and out of cash, will leave with with a tax bill too.

The way to turn the tables on the Wall Street casino is to avoid these games where they are making all kinds of complex bets and instead stick with the low fee index funds like you are already in. Then, you become "the house", winning as the market moves up over time while the folks that got fooled by Wall Street's slick marketing are all busy betting against the pros.

So relax, your S&P 500 fund is a fine place to be over time.


"BLNDX's stated goal is to match total world equity funds" Where does this come from?
 
Use Sharpe ratios for comparison - risk adjusted returns. The higher the better.
 
Thanks....Do you have much confidence in those numbers?

Short term funds like your BLNDX will overstate its Sharpe, but any longer term fund should be accurate. It’s somewhat of a math equation so it is what it is.
 
Can you suggest a link for doing that?

I tried to get Sharpe for both of your funds on Fidelity, but neither will show up. It’s a common measure of risk. I’ll leave that to you to discover.
 
I tried to get Sharpe for both of your funds on Fidelity, but neither will show up. It’s a common measure of risk. I’ll leave that to you to discover.

VFIDX shows a sharpe ratio of .39 VTI shows a sharpe ratio of .96 Does that mean VTI is less risky than VFIDX?
 
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okay thanks..I never considered investment grade bond funds to be riskier than equity funds so that measure of risk does not help me much..

You are missing the point. Its the return vs the risk taken. Somehow I think you are thinking volatility and associating that with risk.
 
VFIDX shows a sharpe ratio of .39 VTI shows a sharpe ratio of .96 Does that mean VTI is less risky than VFIDX?

VTI is stocks and VFIDX is intermediate term invest grade bonds. Seems to be apples versus oranges i.e. not to be compared.

I will acknowledge that VFIDX has a component of equity risk in it. You could probably find a mix of intermediate Treasury and VTI that gives a similar long term return on a historical basis.

One thought, probably a mix of 65/35 of SP500/VFSUX would equal a 60/40 mix of SP500/VFIDX. Something like that although I haven't done the exact analysis. This would reduce the interest rate risk in the bond part of the portfolio.
 
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