So Why Is It Not A Loss If I Sell Everything? SELL THE DIP

RHONDAVE

Recycles dryer sheets
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I keep checking my total valuation of investments right now along side of their value in December 2021.
I call it SELL THE DIP. Even though its only a 4% valuation decline, it still hurts. Maybe too late to make it back if I just sit on it. Any one else?
 
Your AA is likely not appropriate for your risk tolerance.
 
Sell the dip and then do what with the monies and when do you get back in?
 
The idea is supposed to be:

  • Buy low
  • Sell high
  • BTD
But for some reason, when prices are low and sinking, some people want to sell ("before I lose my shirt!"). And when prices are high and rising, some people want to buy ("I could have made so much if I had bought this stock last year!").

So then, what those people actually do is:

  • Buy high
  • Sell low
  • OMY (+OMY, OMY, OMY....)
Makes no nevah mind to me. I try to tell them but they won't listen to me. According to Google, Sudan has the lowest cost of living in the world so maybe their ultimate goal is to move someplace like that where they won't need investment money.

As for me, I am no investment guru and I want to live in the US so I invest in broad mutual funds and do this:
  • Don't buy
  • Don't sell
  • Enjoy my retirement life living on dividends, SS, RMD's, and mini-pension.
 
I keep checking my total valuation of investments right now along side of their value in December 2021.
I call it SELL THE DIP. Even though its only a 4% valuation decline, it still hurts. Maybe too late to make it back if I just sit on it. Any one else?

A suggestion, when you check the value of your investments, do it alongside their value on December 31, 2020 rather than 2021.

Feel better?
 
Your AA is likely not appropriate for your risk tolerance.
Rather than changing AA, though, it would be better if you ride this one out and toughen up your risk tolerance. That's what we did in '87 and dips since then have been easier and easier to ignore. This is the dip strategy I suggest to my Adult-Ed investing class:

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Worth posting again, I suppose: Taylor Larimore's market timing quotes -- https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_Larimore's_market_timing_quotes
 
I keep checking my total valuation of investments right now along side of their value in December 2021.
I call it SELL THE DIP. Even though its only a 4% valuation decline, it still hurts. Maybe too late to make it back if I just sit on it. Any one else?
If you are talking about tax loss harvesting, sure, take the loss and reinvest in something else different enough to avoid a wash sale, but similar enough to keep your AA. I would do that.

Otherwise, I wouldn't be selling at a low. Maybe it's not bottom, maybe it is. I don't know, so I just stay invested. What do you mean "Maybe too late to make it back if I just sit on it."? You don't think the market will recover 4%?

I've never heard of a SELL THE DIP strategy. There's a good reason for that. It's a bad strategy. But, it's your money.
 
A suggestion, when you check the value of your investments, do it alongside their value on December 31, 2020 rather than 2021.

Feel better?

How did you know? Its 2K more now than Dec 20.
If I look back even farther, say 27 years, when I was 40 and had nothing saved and now have over 2.1m net worth... I guess I needed that "SLAP". Thank You. As Gilda Radner used to say....Never Mind....
 
I keep checking my total valuation of investments ...
Behavioral Finance research has shown that people who check frequently have poorer investment results than those who do not. The explanation is that we humans have a hard-wired risk aversion. As prices change, the "downs" have a bigger mental effect on us than the "ups" do. This makes the frequent checkers more prone to sell into down markets where those who do not check do a better job implementing a consistent buy and hold strategy.

IIRC, Richard Thaler talks about this in "Misbehaving," IMO a worthwhile read for any investor.
 
The piece of information I would like a few minutes ahead of time is when the hedge funds, who control the ups and downs of the "market", are going to start buying back after they drew it down to take profits. :cool:
 
First post about “SELL!” So maybe we’re starting to be close to a bottom, although none of the comments so far jump on the sell bandwagon.
 
I keep checking my total valuation of investments right now along side of their value in December 2021.
I call it SELL THE DIP. Even though its only a 4% valuation decline, it still hurts. Maybe too late to make it back if I just sit on it. Any one else?

Depends on your financial situation, age, tolerance for additional risk/losses and "need" for additional gains - eg: to meet your goals.

We don't "need" to take risk, so I've been selling. Sold roughly $10K today, in fact. Not a big sale, but I was up on one fund 17+% and the other 27% since 1/1/21, and I decided that was "enough" gain. It still exceeded historical gain averages handsomely, and I had no "need" to take additional risk with those dollars. So I locked in the profits before further erosion (which I see as VERY likely for a variety of reasons including pretty extreme geopolitical events and ramifications on our economy from them, coming into a Fed raising cycle and likely recession as a result, etc, etc) were to occur.

One thing you'll find here (and on Bogleheads) is an overwhelming preference to just "buy and hold" no matter what. That's great for some people, but I'm a big believer that prudent risk management is far more beneficial in preserving profits and meeting one's goals. Markets have had many periods of lengthy and painful downside in the past, and those periods tend to get glossed over as "no big deal". They can in fact be a VERY big deal depending on your timeframe and ability to psychologically live through them, particularly when you have no W-2 paychecks or other source of consistent income coming in. My general advice is - think LONG AND HARD about how you'd feel if the market were down 50+% and it took 5+ years to get back to even (which it did starting Feb 2001). If you can live through that - great! I can't, so I manage risk accordingly.

BTW, what I'm saying here is pretty heretical :) and violates the Boglehead and ER "stone tablets from Mount Sanai" belief system in at least a hundred different ways. But you have to do what makes YOU comfortable and able to sleep well at night.

On the flipside of all that, be careful of "Anchoring" bias - that is, the tendency to say "but wait..I HAD X $, and now I don't". Focus instead on..does my current position meet my goals? And act accordingly. You may or not ever get back to $X. You may wind up a lot lower than $X. Or higher. But $X truly should not matter, psychologically painful as that may be. What matters is meeting your goals.
 
During the start of the pandemic, the market tanked and I was smart enough to get out right at the bottom (March of 2020). :facepalm: In one sense it was a big mistake because as we know now, the market recovered everything and then some. However, one thing I did is reevaluate my risk tolerance. Prior to selling I was at 60% equities. I did make a commitment to myself to get back in but at a much lower equity percentage. I’m now at about 30% which is up from my initial getting back in percentage of 20%.

I have to say that I believe I did a lot better at evaluating my risk tolerance because this time I’m much more comfortable holding tight. I also have a better plan now. I started out (got back in) at 20% and I’ll let it float up or down until me an DW are both on SS. With that and my pension, most of our expenses will be covered and my withdraw rate will be very low. At that point, my MYGA will come due and we’ll go back to 60% equities. At that point forward, I’ll be basically trying to maximize my portfolio for either late life healthcare or my heirs. I’m not sure if I’ll go up to 100% equities, but I don’t plan on rebalancing and I plan on drawing down my bonds/fixed investments.

When the pandemic hit, there was a very insightful post written and I wish I could find it and thank whoever wrote it - even though I didn’t take the advice. The post was about “this time it’s different”. The writer went on to discuss all the times people thought the world/market was going to collapse and how that time it was different (as in it would actually happen), but it wasn’t. He assured the reader that while the pandemic was scary, in the grand scheme of things, it wasn’t that different and indeed he was correct. I suspect those words still ring true. It’s terrible to see what’s going on, but the world has pretty much always had wars going on and even in WWII, life went on and the markets did what they do. I suppose anything short of nukes flying would therefore fall into the category of, no, it’s not different this time.

Note also - when the pandemic hit, the market was around 3300 (the S&P). It “crashed” to about 2300. It is now still over 4000. So, we’re not that close to the bottom of just two years ago. That would take another 50% drop. And, if it drops by about another 25%, we’d just be back to the highs of about two years ago. Point being, if the OP has been in the market for awhile, rather than “selling low” or taking some losses, he would actually be locking in some gains.
 
Depends on your financial situation, age, tolerance for additional risk/losses and "need" for additional gains - eg: to meet your goals.

We don't "need" to take risk, so I've been selling. Sold roughly $10K today, in fact. Not a big sale, but I was up on one fund 17+% and the other 27% since 1/1/21, and I decided that was "enough" gain. It still exceeded historical gain averages handsomely, and I had no "need" to take additional risk with those dollars. So I locked in the profits before further erosion (which I see as VERY likely for a variety of reasons including pretty extreme geopolitical events and ramifications on our economy from them, coming into a Fed raising cycle and likely recession as a result, etc, etc) were to occur.

One thing you'll find here (and on Bogleheads) is an overwhelming preference to just "buy and hold" no matter what. That's great for some people, but I'm a big believer that prudent risk management is far more beneficial in preserving profits and meeting one's goals. Markets have had many periods of lengthy and painful downside in the past, and those periods tend to get glossed over as "no big deal". They can in fact be a VERY big deal depending on your timeframe and ability to psychologically live through them, particularly when you have no W-2 paychecks or other source of consistent income coming in. My general advice is - think LONG AND HARD about how you'd feel if the market were down 50+% and it took 5+ years to get back to even (which it did starting Feb 2001). If you can live through that - great! I can't, so I manage risk accordingly.

BTW, what I'm saying here is pretty heretical :) and violates the Boglehead and ER "stone tablets from Mount Sanai" belief system in at least a hundred different ways. But you have to do what makes YOU comfortable and able to sleep well at night.

On the flipside of all that, be careful of "Anchoring" bias - that is, the tendency to say "but wait..I HAD X $, and now I don't". Focus instead on..does my current position meet my goals? And act accordingly. You may or not ever get back to $X. You may wind up a lot lower than $X. Or higher. But $X truly should not matter, psychologically painful as that may be. What matters is meeting your goals.

I can relate - I have a couple of health issues that make me question my mortality. 10 years ago I wouldn't have worried at all - now its make me think but I'm fighting it - Good luck to us both.
 
Depends on your financial situation, age, tolerance for additional risk/losses and "need" for additional gains - eg: to meet your goals.

We don't "need" to take risk, so I've been selling. Sold roughly $10K today, in fact. Not a big sale, but I was up on one fund 17+% and the other 27% since 1/1/21, and I decided that was "enough" gain. It still exceeded historical gain averages handsomely, and I had no "need" to take additional risk with those dollars. So I locked in the profits before further erosion (which I see as VERY likely for a variety of reasons including pretty extreme geopolitical events and ramifications on our economy from them, coming into a Fed raising cycle and likely recession as a result, etc, etc) were to occur.

One thing you'll find here (and on Bogleheads) is an overwhelming preference to just "buy and hold" no matter what. That's great for some people, but I'm a big believer that prudent risk management is far more beneficial in preserving profits and meeting one's goals. Markets have had many periods of lengthy and painful downside in the past, and those periods tend to get glossed over as "no big deal". They can in fact be a VERY big deal depending on your timeframe and ability to psychologically live through them, particularly when you have no W-2 paychecks or other source of consistent income coming in. My general advice is - think LONG AND HARD about how you'd feel if the market were down 50+% and it took 5+ years to get back to even (which it did starting Feb 2001). If you can live through that - great! I can't, so I manage risk accordingly.

BTW, what I'm saying here is pretty heretical :) and violates the Boglehead and ER "stone tablets from Mount Sanai" belief system in at least a hundred different ways. But you have to do what makes YOU comfortable and able to sleep well at night.

On the flipside of all that, be careful of "Anchoring" bias - that is, the tendency to say "but wait..I HAD X $, and now I don't". Focus instead on..does my current position meet my goals? And act accordingly. You may or not ever get back to $X. You may wind up a lot lower than $X. Or higher. But $X truly should not matter, psychologically painful as that may be. What matters is meeting your goals.

The Triumph of the Optimists book, based on a multi-country and historical analysis, says stocks have always come out ahead in the long run, but the long run may be 40 years, which is beyond my current life expectancy. We keep some stocks but no more than a 50% loss wouldn't bother us (much). I'm not the type to be interested in any investment methodology that requires white knuckle and gut punch periods when there are more tranquil methodologies available, like asset matching.

A TIPS ladder at even a 0% real return provides a 3.33% safe withdrawal rate over 30 years, with limited angst and the safety of Treasury bonds. At my age, with a 20 year life expectancy, the SWR is 5%, even with a 0% real return. When we retired the real return on the 30 years was over 2%, and we just though good enough. TIPS are still kind of expensive now, but the prices should drop as interest rates rise.
 
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Depends on your financial situation, age, tolerance for additional risk/losses and "need" for additional gains - eg: to meet your goals.

We don't "need" to take risk, so I've been selling. Sold roughly $10K today, in fact. Not a big sale, but I was up on one fund 17+% and the other 27% since 1/1/21, and I decided that was "enough" gain. It still exceeded historical gain averages handsomely, and I had no "need" to take additional risk with those dollars. So I locked in the profits before further erosion (which I see as VERY likely for a variety of reasons including pretty extreme geopolitical events and ramifications on our economy from them, coming into a Fed raising cycle and likely recession as a result, etc, etc) were to occur.

One thing you'll find here (and on Bogleheads) is an overwhelming preference to just "buy and hold" no matter what. That's great for some people, but I'm a big believer that prudent risk management is far more beneficial in preserving profits and meeting one's goals. Markets have had many periods of lengthy and painful downside in the past, and those periods tend to get glossed over as "no big deal". They can in fact be a VERY big deal depending on your timeframe and ability to psychologically live through them, particularly when you have no W-2 paychecks or other source of consistent income coming in. My general advice is - think LONG AND HARD about how you'd feel if the market were down 50+% and it took 5+ years to get back to even (which it did starting Feb 2001). If you can live through that - great! I can't, so I manage risk accordingly.

BTW, what I'm saying here is pretty heretical :) and violates the Boglehead and ER "stone tablets from Mount Sanai" belief system in at least a hundred different ways. But you have to do what makes YOU comfortable and able to sleep well at night.

On the flipside of all that, be careful of "Anchoring" bias - that is, the tendency to say "but wait..I HAD X $, and now I don't". Focus instead on..does my current position meet my goals? And act accordingly. You may or not ever get back to $X. You may wind up a lot lower than $X. Or higher. But $X truly should not matter, psychologically painful as that may be. What matters is meeting your goals.

+1. It’s YOUR Goals/resources that matter. Especially like what I’ve heard called “The Lifeboat Drill” - how’d you feel if -50% & 5 years to recover, and what would you do?

24601-but sitting in cash is surrendering to inflationary erosion of wealth. So where do you sit?
 
Actually, now would be a good time to convert some of your losing stocks/ETF/mutual funds into your Roth IRA.

That's my plan. I have 2 mutual funds in my tIRA that have been good performers, but are down quite a bit YTD.

I will probably convert about 60% of my planned conversion in the next few days.

In the grand scheme of things, this is a minor plus. But I will take it.

As far as selling? No plans.
 
I have been very tempted to sell. Sell, sell, sell...

OTM put options that is.

And I would have done it, if I did not already have options out that could cause me to buy more stocks worth a 6-figure sum.

Stock AA is currently at 73.6%.
 
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