Social Security Benefits Could Get Their Biggest Boost in 40 Years.

[Gumby]

Based on today's CPI-W release, the 2023 Social Security COLA will be 8.7% if there are no further changes in September. The CPI-W went down again from 292.219 to 291.629 between July and August 2022.

 

[single2019]

Based on today's CPI-W release, the 2023 Social Security COLA will be 8.7% if there are no further changes in September. The CPI-W went down again from 292.219 to 291.629 between July and August 2022.

Thank you. As usual Gumby calculates this number before the media (and explains it better)

 

[Koolau]

Thank you. As usual Gumby calculates this number before the media (and explains it better)

I think we should double Gumby's salary.

Wait! Gumby is retired. Never mind.

 

[11522914]

Based on today's CPI-W release, the 2023 Social Security COLA will be 8.7% if there are no further changes in September. The CPI-W went down again from 292.219 to 291.629 between July and August 2022.

Thanks

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Do we REALLY think that SS increases will be 8.7% or is it just speculation at this point.

Looks like the media is taking Gumby's numbers to heart.

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/09/13/social-security-cola-for-2023-estimated-at-8-7/

 

[ShokWaveRider]

1 Year Treasury is 3.8% today, or at least it was last time I checked.

 

[Gumby]

Do we REALLY think that SS increases will be 8.7% or is it just speculation at this point.

Looks like the media is taking Gumby's numbers to heart.

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/09/13/social-security-cola-for-2023-estimated-at-8-7/

Who knows what September holds? But assuming no large changes in CPI-W in September, the math is the math, and it says 8.7%

 

[single2019]

Do we REALLY think that SS increases will be 8.7% or is it just speculation at this point.

Looks like the media is taking Gumby's numbers to heart.

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/09/13/social-security-cola-for-2023-estimated-at-8-7/

Two hours after Gumby called it

 

[Time2]

Two hours after Gumby called it

Keep this up and we will get $70k in SS, oh wait, I guess I have to spend that and more just to keep up.

 

[Koolau]

Keep this up and we will get $70k in SS, oh wait, I guess I have to spend that and more just to keep up.

Heh, heh, and you also have to pay taxes on it!

 

[single2019]

Heh, heh, and you also have to pay taxes on it!

If you already pay tax on 85% of SS income, change in the chained CPI will result in tax bracket increase.

 

[Golden sunsets]

Two hours after Gumby called it

Gumby didn't call it. He just knows where and when to look. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) releases the number at exactly 8:30AM on a date predetermined and posted for anyone to see. Scroll down to the second paragraph beneath the heading "Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures" for the specific data on CPI-W.

The next and final factor will be published on 10/13/22 at 8:30 AM. At that point we will all know what our 2023 SS, VA Disability, and Government pensions will be adjusted by, as of 1/1/23.

 

[single2019]

Gumby didn't call it. He just knows where and when to look. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS.gov) releases the number at exactly 8:30AM on a date predetermined and posted for anyone to see. Scroll down to the second paragraph beneath the heading "Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures" for the specific data on CPI-W.

The next and final factor will be published on 10/13/22 at 8:30 AM. At that point we will all know what our 2023 SS, VA Disability, and Government pensions will be adjusted by, as of 1/1/23.

I was acknowledging Gumby’s being quick to process the data.

 

[Gumby]

Thank you, single 2019. I was aiming for 8:31, but I slept too late this morning.

 

[Dtail]

Do we REALLY think that SS increases will be 8.7% or is it just speculation at this point.

Looks like the media is taking Gumby's numbers to heart.

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/09/13/social-security-cola-for-2023-estimated-at-8-7/

It is just math.

 

[Lawrence of Suburbia]

I suppose they'll raise Medicare premiums, too.

 

[braumeister]

I suppose they'll raise Medicare premiums, too.

I don't know. Wouldn't that imply that the government's right hand knows what its left hand is doing?

 

[Dtail]

I suppose they'll raise Medicare premiums, too.

Well the rise could be less in this category due to the adjustment on the Alzheimers drug adjustment.

 

[MissMolly]

Even if they did raise Medicare 8.7% you are only talking about an increase of $14.80 (for the lowest tier). That amount is FAR below the average monthly SS payment of $1,641 which would see an increase of $142.67.

 

[Lawrence of Suburbia]

Even if they did raise Medicare 8.7% you are only talking about an increase of $14.80 (for the lowest tier). That amount is FAR below the average monthly SS payment of $1,641 which would see an increase of $142.67.

Well, that gives me some hope! Thanks

 

[Golden sunsets]

Thank you, single 2019. I was aiming for 8:31, but I slept too late this morning.

Actually, It's 8.6%, not 8.7%, isn't it? Rounding to the nearest 1/10th, 8.646 becomes 8.6.


This link explains the calculation. https://www.myfederalretirement.com/fers-csrs-cola-watch/

Splitting hairs, I know.

 

[Katsmeow]

Do we REALLY think that SS increases will be 8.7% or is it just speculation at this point.

Looks like the media is taking Gumby's numbers to heart.

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/09/13/social-security-cola-for-2023-estimated-at-8-7/

I don't really understand your question. This is a mathematical calculation based upon a formula that is used every year to determine this. There is no speculation, however, not all data used is yet known. They will use the average of July, August and September. We don't know September yet. If the CPI-W was unchanged in September then the COLA would be 8.7%. You can model what it would be by using various possibilities for September

Actually, It's 8.6%, not 8 7%, isn't it? Rounding to the nearest 1/10th, 8.646 becomes 8.6.


This link explains the calculation. https://www.myfederalretirement.com/fers-csrs-cola-watch/

Splitting hairs, I know.

No, they are using only the number for August. The actual calculation will average July (which was higher), August, and September. When you use July and August you get the 8.7.

 

[Gumby]

I don't really understand your question. This is a mathematical calculation based upon a formula that is used every year to determine this. There is no speculation, however, not all data used is yet known. They will use the average of July, August and September. We don't know September yet. If the CPI-W was unchanged in September then the COLA would be 8.7%. You can model what it would be by using various possibilities for September



No, they are using only the number for August. The actual calculation will average July (which was higher), August, and September. When you use July and August you get the 8.7.

Exactly so. Here's the real math:

Avg CPI 3Q22/Avg CPI 3Q21 = ((CPI Jul22 + CPI Aug22 + CPI Sep22)/3)/((CPI Jul21 + CPI Aug21 + CPI Sep21)/3)

((292.219 +291.629+291.629*)/3)/268.421 = 1.08719 = 8.7% increase

* Assumed, i.e. "if there are no further changes in September."

 

[Vincenzo Corleone]

Thank you. As usual Gumby calculates this number before the media (and explains it better)

+1

 

[Golden sunsets]

Exactly so. Here's the real math:

Avg CPI 3Q22/Avg CPI 3Q21 = ((CPI Jul22 + CPI Aug22 + CPI Sep22)/3)/((CPI Jul21 + CPI Aug21 + CPI Sep21)/3)

((292.219 +291.629+291.629*)/3)/268.421 = 1.08719 = 8.7% increase

* Assumed, i.e. "if there are no further changes in September."

Ok got it. Given that this month's number is lower than last month's, if next month's number continues the trend, the final number will trend lower, like the 8.6 vs 8.7.