Social Security COLA 2024

[Gumby]

It all seems to work out the same for me. SS gives ---and IRMAA takes it all away.

It never works out that I am even a little bit even or ahead.

For 2023, if you get the maximum social security check possible and didn't start until you were 70, you would be getting $54,660 per year ($4555 x 12) gross and at 85% taxable, $46,461 of that goes to AGI. If you are a single filer, the 1st IRMAA surcharge starts at $97,000 in AGI. Which means you have at least $50,439 in other income counted in AGI. Perhaps you can adjust that other income to come in under IRMAA?

 

[molly312]

I shouldn't complain as I realize that I am so much luckier than most.

I am too old to do anymore conversions and a widow. However, those RMDs and IRMAA really bite.

 

[Marc]

CPI-W Y/Y 3.6% but SS COLA will be 3.2% based on formula; this isn't going to go over too well.

Marc

 

[Gumby]

The formula has always been the same. They average it over a quarter to smooth the data. Also CPI-U is not the same as CPI-W.

 

[Marc]

The formula has always been the same. They average it over a quarter to smooth the data. Also CPI-U is not the same as CPI-W.

Are you trying to criticize my reporting? I said CPI-W and not CPI-U. And I stated that the formula is different than Y/Y number.

On the other Inflation thread we can address CPI-U and impact on IRMAA; I posted on 2024 COLA thread to just state the final numbers.

Marc

 

[Golden sunsets]

2024 Cola - 3.2%

 

[aja8888]

I shouldn't complain as I realize that I am so much luckier than most.

I am too old to do anymore conversions and a widow. However, those RMDs and IRMAA really bite.

Well, you don't have to spend the RMD's.

 

[Gumby]

Are you trying to criticize my reporting? I said CPI-W and not CPI-U. And I stated that the formula is different than Y/Y number.

On the other Inflation thread we can address CPI-U and impact on IRMAA; I posted on 2024 COLA thread to just state the final numbers.

Marc

My apologies. No criticism was intended. You did specify CPI-W year over year and I read too fast. My point is that since the data is averaged over the quarter for the COLA, it is rare that it will exactly match the CPI-W for September over September. Sometimes it may be higher, sometimes lower. I should have been clearer.

 

[gauss]

For those age 60 and younger , (ie those who's PIA value has not been determined yet) the more important figure announced today is the increase in the National Average Wage Index (AWI) for 2022.

For 2022 the AWI value increased 5.32% to 63,795.13. This is the factor used to scale all of your historical wages for inflation. I believe that the figures shown on your individual SSA accounts still reflect the prior years value until they are updated.

-gauss

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

For those age 60 and younger , (ie those who's PIA value has not been determined yet) the more important figure announced today is the increase in the National Average Wage Index (AWI) for 2022.

For 2022 the AWI value increased 5.32% to 63,795.13. This is the factor used to scale all of your historical wages for inflation. I believe that the figures shown on your individual SSA accounts still reflect the prior years value until they are updated.

-gauss

Thank you for that reminder. I turn 60 this year, and I am aware of the formula/importance of that figure, but I did not know it had been announced.

Edit: I just realized I have one more year (2023) to go before my final scaling is determined. Right?

 

[Sunset]

For those age 60 and younger , (ie those who's PIA value has not been determined yet) the more important figure announced today is the increase in the National Average Wage Index (AWI) for 2022.

For 2022 the AWI value increased 5.32% to 63,795.13. This is the factor used to scale all of your historical wages for inflation. I believe that the figures shown on your individual SSA accounts still reflect the prior years value until they are updated.

-gauss

Another to wish I was younger

 

[W2R]

2024 Cola - 3.2%

So our 2024 COLA will be 3.2%?

3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

THANK YOU! Now I can go figure out how much more I'll get in SS and in my FERS monthly retiree payments next year.

 

[Sunset]

I shouldn't complain as I realize that I am so much luckier than most.

I am too old to do anymore conversions and a widow. However, those RMDs and IRMAA really bite.

I don't think it was really luck, unless you won a big lottery. It was probably due to your willingness to actually work for starters...

 

[W2R]

So our 2024 COLA will be 3.2%?

3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

THANK YOU! Now I can go figure out how much more I'll get in SS and in my FERS monthly retiree payments next year.

OK! The increase in my COLA'd SS plus FERS "diet-COLA'd" deposits in 2024, minus the increase in FEHB (BCBS), will put $69.45 more in my checking account every month than in 2023.

Assuming Medicare goes up to $174.80 (which I'm not sure is final?) I'll get $59.55 more each and every month than I did in 2023.

That should help a bit!

 

[street]

Nice!!! Just heard.
Since I started SS I have had a total of >20% increase in SS payments. It is one thing that seems never to come up when the topic comes up about when to take SS or the breakeven point for 62 to 70. Those increases add up for those starting SS early and does make difference when comparing time of taking SS.

Just my 2¢. I'm defiantly not saying it is best or trying to convince anyone to take SS at age 62.

 

[MissMolly]

The increases are applied regardless of when you take SS, so those waiting until later aren't missing out on anything.

 

[djsander]

OK! The increase in my COLA'd SS plus FERS "diet-COLA'd" deposits in 2024, minus the increase in FEHB (BCBS), will put $69.45 more in my checking account every month than in 2023.

Assuming Medicare goes up to $174.80 (which I'm not sure is final?) I'll get $59.55 more each and every month than I did in 2023.

That should help a bit!

I only worked for the feds for a little less than 9 years and my ex convinced the young and not so on the ball me not to buy my 6 years of Navy time so my fers diet cola’d will be about $6 otherwise it would be about $10! I’ll try not to spend it all in one place! Not drawing SS yet.

 

[Koolau]

2024 Cola - 3.2%

That will be a "blip" toward OUR inflation, but I'll take what ever I can get.

 

[street]

The increases are applied regardless of when you take SS, so those waiting until later aren't missing out on anything.

Thanks I misunderstood how that worked some years back. Sorry about that that is great for the ones waiting.

 

[G-Man]

For those age 60 and younger , (ie those who's PIA value has not been determined yet) the more important figure announced today is the increase in the National Average Wage Index (AWI) for 2022.

For 2022 the AWI value increased 5.32% to 63,795.13. This is the factor used to scale all of your historical wages for inflation. I believe that the figures shown on your individual SSA accounts still reflect the prior years value until they are updated.

-gauss

When will we know what the new indexing factors will be?

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awifactors.html

So do you take the 2023 indexing factor for each year and multiply it by 5.32% to get the 2024 indexing factors for each year. I guess we don't know the bend points for 2024.


Year 2023 Factor 2024 Factor
1962 14.1154565 14.8663988
1963 13.7775824 14.5105498
1964 13.2366334 13.9408223
1965 13.0025136 13.6942473
1966 12.2662321 12.9187956
1967 11.6190212 12.2371531
1968 10.8718017 11.4501816
1969 10.2778311 10.8246117
1970 9.7919043 10.3128336
1971 9.3234299 9.8194364
1972 8.4912767 8.9430126
1973 7.9912654 8.4164007
1974 7.5428814 7.9441627
1975 7.0183793 7.3917571
1976 6.5653499 6.9146265
1977 6.1941246 6.5236520
1978 5.7384329 6.0437175
1979 5.2768223 5.5575492
1980 4.840793 5.0983232
1981 4.3980709 4.6320483
1982 4.1685811 4.3903496
1983 3.9749404 4.1864072
1984 3.754249 3.9539750
1985 3.6008342 3.7923986
1986 3.4970384 3.6830808
1987 3.287387 3.4622760
1988 3.1330788 3.2997586
1989 3.0137525 3.1740841
1990 2.880689 3.0339417
1991 2.7771952 2.9249420
1992 2.6411145 2.7816218
1993 2.618594 2.7579032
1994 2.5501502 2.6858182
1995 2.4518701 2.5823096
1996 2.3375513 2.4619090
1997 2.2086732 2.3261746
1998 2.0988236 2.2104810
1999 1.9880337 2.0937971
2000 1.8838566 1.9840778
2001 1.8399616 1.9378476
2002 1.8216921 1.9186061
2003 1.7782228 1.8728243
2004 1.6992296 1.7896286
2005 1.639249 1.7264570
2006 1.567215 1.6505908
2007 1.4991796 1.5789360
2008 1.4654679 1.5434308
2009 1.4879065 1.5670631
2010 1.4535518 1.5308808
2011 1.4093909 1.4843705
2012 1.3667145 1.4394237
2013 1.3494665 1.4212581
2014 1.3032076 1.3725382
2015 1.2593928 1.3263925
2016 1.2453206 1.3115717
2017 1.2037519 1.2677915
2018 1.1616481 1.2234478
2019 1.1196873 1.1792547
2020 1.0889195 1.1468500
2021 1 1.0532000
2022 1 1
2023 1 1

 

[G-Man]

Are these the new Social Security bend points for 2024?

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/bendpoints.html

Year First Second
2024 1,174 7,078

 

[G-Man]

Ok. For someone that turned 60 in August of this year, should they be using the 2024 Indexing factor and 2024 bend points in my previous two posts to calculate PIA?

 

[gauss]

When will we know what the new indexing factors will be?

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awifactors.html

So do you take the 2023 indexing factor for each year and multiply it by 5.32% to get the 2024 indexing factors for each year. I guess we don't know the bend points for 2024.


Year 2023 Factor 2024 Factor
1962 14.1154565 14.8663988
1963 13.7775824 14.5105498
1964 13.2366334 13.9408223
1965 13.0025136 13.6942473
1966 12.2662321 12.9187956
1967 11.6190212 12.2371531
1968 10.8718017 11.4501816
1969 10.2778311 10.8246117
1970 9.7919043 10.3128336
1971 9.3234299 9.8194364
1972 8.4912767 8.9430126
1973 7.9912654 8.4164007
1974 7.5428814 7.9441627
1975 7.0183793 7.3917571
1976 6.5653499 6.9146265
1977 6.1941246 6.5236520
1978 5.7384329 6.0437175
1979 5.2768223 5.5575492
1980 4.840793 5.0983232
1981 4.3980709 4.6320483
1982 4.1685811 4.3903496
1983 3.9749404 4.1864072
1984 3.754249 3.9539750
1985 3.6008342 3.7923986
1986 3.4970384 3.6830808
1987 3.287387 3.4622760
1988 3.1330788 3.2997586
1989 3.0137525 3.1740841
1990 2.880689 3.0339417
1991 2.7771952 2.9249420
1992 2.6411145 2.7816218
1993 2.618594 2.7579032
1994 2.5501502 2.6858182
1995 2.4518701 2.5823096
1996 2.3375513 2.4619090
1997 2.2086732 2.3261746
1998 2.0988236 2.2104810
1999 1.9880337 2.0937971
2000 1.8838566 1.9840778
2001 1.8399616 1.9378476
2002 1.8216921 1.9186061
2003 1.7782228 1.8728243
2004 1.6992296 1.7896286
2005 1.639249 1.7264570
2006 1.567215 1.6505908
2007 1.4991796 1.5789360
2008 1.4654679 1.5434308
2009 1.4879065 1.5670631
2010 1.4535518 1.5308808
2011 1.4093909 1.4843705
2012 1.3667145 1.4394237
2013 1.3494665 1.4212581
2014 1.3032076 1.3725382
2015 1.2593928 1.3263925
2016 1.2453206 1.3115717
2017 1.2037519 1.2677915
2018 1.1616481 1.2234478
2019 1.1196873 1.1792547
2020 1.0889195 1.1468500
2021 1 1.0532000
2022 1 1
2023 1 1

When will we know what the new indexing factors will be?

I think we know now with the update for 2022 to the AWI series.

I believe that what you suggest would yield a very close approximation.

As a check, I looked up your 1990 value - I divided the AWI for year 2022 (63,795.13) by the value for 1990 (21,027.98) from my links above and dividing I obtain 3.03382112785 -- which is pretty darn close to your 2024 value of 3.0339417 for 1990.

Back when I was still working, I had a spreadsheet that would take the yearly AWI factors and my earning earnings history to calculate my PIA benefit value.

I seem to have lost track of the spreadsheet, but now since I no longer have earned income to effect the calculation, the math is simpler.

I just multiple last years PIA value (actually I use the age 70 monthly payment) from my personal SS statement by either the % increase in AWI (or that ratio of the current year divided by the previous year value of AWI) and then expect to see this value when the new SS statements are published I think early in 2024. Once I get to age 60 I will probably need to look in closer detail again.


-gauss

 

[G-Man]

I think we know now with the update for 2022 to the AWI series.

I believe that what you suggest would yield a very close approximation.

As a check, I looked up your 1990 value - I divided the AWI for year 2022 (63,795.13) by the value for 1990 (21,027.98) from my links above and dividing I obtain 3.03382112785 -- which is pretty darn close to your 2024 value of 3.0339417 for 1990.

Back when I was still working, I had a spreadsheet that would take the yearly AWI factors and my earning earnings history to calculate my PIA benefit value.

I seem to have lost track of the spreadsheet, but now since I no longer have earned income to effect the calculation, the math is simpler.

I just multiple last years PIA value (actually I use the age 70 monthly payment) from my personal SS statement by either the % increase in AWI (or that ratio of the current year divided by the previous year value of AWI) and then expect to see this value when the new SS statements are published I think early in 2024. Once I get to age 60 I will probably need to look in closer detail again.


-gauss

I am using a spreadsheet I created to calculate my wife's PIA. Can't wait to see if it matches the same value on my wife's Social Security statement. I believe the Social Security statement should reflect the new PIA value in late November.

 

[G-Man]

Ok. For someone that turned 60 in August of this year, should they be using the 2024 Indexing factor and 2024 bend points in my previous two posts to calculate PIA?

Can someone answer this question.