Some info from an economist I saw live yesterday.......

[FinanceDude]

I guess take it for what its worth. His name is Jeff Roach, he worked for B of A and now works at Horizon Investments. There are a few nuggets I gleaned I thought I would share:

1)He doesn't see a recovery until early Summer 2009 at the earliest.

2)Oil should remain low, near $70, because demand is imploding in several large markets.

3)There is a 75% correlation between the University of Michigan Consumer COnfidence index and the retail price of gas..........

4)For every 1% change in the dollar, there's a 7-8% change in the price of oil. So, if the dollar stregthens 1%, the price of oil should drop 7-8%

5)In 2005, up to 52% of all home loans were to people with BELOW median income..........

6)He is adamant that folks should have 10% of their AA in things like commodities and/or natural resources.........

That's the main points. He thinks a 2nd stimulus package is likely. However, in the first stimulus package, Congress brought back favorable depreciation recovery laws, so a lot of companies have incentive to do capital expenditures, as they can take large deductions up front.

 

[Leonidas]

That's the main points. He thinks a 2nd stimulus package is likely. However, in the first stimulus package, Congress brought back favorable depreciation recovery laws, so a lot of companies have incentive to do capital expenditures, as they can take large deductions up front.

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/105996/Ideas-for-2nd-Stimulus-Cover-Broad-Swath

 

[riskadverse]

The house isn't burning down fast enough - pour more gas on it.

 

[Abreutime]

3)There is a 75% correlation between the University of Michigan Consumer COnfidence index and the retail price of gas..........

What follow what? I suspect that the consumer confidence index is influenced by the retail price of gas, which is one of the most "in-your-face" prices that consumers face on a day to day basis. In other words, no way to make money off of this finding.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

maybe i'll time just right the selling of my houses and buying back into the market at bottom. (working theory: elevator down, escalator up.) though the only thing i've timed well so far is my upcoming 3000 mile roadtrip. at 17 mpg, since i started planning, i've already "saved" almost 200 bucks. hey, that's two nights at a roadside motel. excellent.

 

[FinanceDude]

What follow what? I suspect that the consumer confidence index is influenced by the retail price of gas, which is one of the most "in-your-face" prices that consumers face on a day to day basis. In other words, no way to make money off of this finding.

I just thought it was an interesting state. As the price of gas keeps falling, folks are getting more confidence about the economy, even though its a debacle.........