Here’s an interesting podcast with Dr. Gottlieb on the corona virus and near future. Also some speculation on what corona virus has taught us about national security vulnerabilities.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...rning-the-corner/id1539292794?i=1000507009319
He thinks that within two months the vaccine supply problem will be a demand problem.
Let’s hope so.
I really like listening to Dr. Scott. This is a worthwhile listen. If you don't have the time, just go to minute 5 in the podcast and he discusses this supply/demand issue at that time. This interview is from Jan 29. He says in 4 to 6 weeks, he expects there will be an inflection point and the authorities will be shifting to trying to get people enrolled. The interviewer challenges him on this because he says: "In our world, everyone is struggling to get signed up and get the vaccine. So, really?" And Dr. Scott comes back and says, yes. It is going to shift and people may be surprised.
I hope so.
I thought it was because J & J will come on line at this time. He addresses that, including J & J's probable back loaded deliveries. Even if they are back loaded, he still insists come April or so, we'll be surprised at availability.
I hope he is right.
He also adds a few other points:
- There is angst because states have developed a system with "friction" in it, because supply is so low. People are feeling the "friction," i.e. calling 1000 times to get an appointment.
- The current population of older folks are highly motivated to get it. They see the statistics. This is likely to not follow once the other populations get on line.
- General availability will be a must-have by sometime in spring (i.e. states release the friction). Basically, he is saying people will just have to go show up and get it. He is concerned states have focused on creating friction and are going to have to pivot away from that and get shots in arms, because the doses will be available.
- States are focusing on under-served population. That's ok, but a dual system should be in place. General availability and a focused effort for under-served populations, otherwise distribution will continue to have too much friction (he addresses this at about minute 29).