Second, there are two parts to this discussion, which shouldn't be confused. The impact on contributors to SS and recipients of SS. The focus of my "window dressing" comment was as to recipients. The pain of adjustment will be shared though I highly suspect it will favor the current recipients as to where the pound of flesh will be extracted.
Semantics and terminology, as always, play a big part in these discussions. By "means testing," I take the broader view and define it as any adjustments that impact either inputs or outputs based on "means" (income or assets). For example, if my SS benefit is reduced because of my relatively higher income, that's "means testing." If my benefit stays the same but, while I'm a contributor, I pay higher FICA taxes and therefore benefit less per dollar contributed, I also call that "means testing." Or if part of my SS benefit is clawed back in the form of fed income taxes, well, that's "means testing" too.
if you try to Means Test (and by that I mean phasing out benefits) our way out of the funding problem with SS we would have to deny benefits well into the middle class ranks. And that is not going to happen.It is easy to make an example of why Warren Buffet not getting his SS benefits... but it is "window dressing".
Take a look at the IRMAA system and how it causes higher income folks to pay more for their Medicare Parts B and D. IRMAA impacts more folks than just the Warren Buffet types (a LOT more) but does not go deep into the middle class. Similar could be done to tinker with SS benefits. And I'm guessing they won't try to solve the SS problem using only means testing. It will be just one part.
I never believed the feds would means test Medicare for many of the same reasons you've given for why you think they won't means test SS. But, along came IRMAA, reducing my Medicare supplement (thus increasing my Part B and Part D premiums) and Medicare turns out to be pricey for me in retirement. And the last I looked, I'm not quite as wealthy as Warren Buffet!
Finally, I am 100% convinced any Means Testing will be Income based, which is how we handle all taxes. The ability to track Assets, and value them, is a nightmare.
Gee, I just paid the first installment of my real estate property taxes, a hefty tax here in Illinois. That's asset based. Should I ask for a refund?
Tracking the bulk of our assets would not be a nightmare at all LARS. It would be simple for banks and brokerages to report your accounts and, in fact, they are already reporting your TIRA account year end amounts. And the states could easily report your real estate holdings. As far as personal possessions, the feds could ask you to report them and few would....... and who cares? Like unreported income, stuff happens........
SS is already being means tested (by my broader definition). I'm fearful the trend will grow in the future. The precedent has already been set by means testing Medicare via IRMAA. Expanding means testing within SS won't be as unpopular (with the voting majority) or difficult as you imagine. And they'll eventually slide into including some of your assets in your "means" add-up too. IMHO of course.
I wish I could be as optimistic as you about it not happening LARS. I hope you're correct, but I feel means testing (broader definition) coming to SS.