"START HERE" Spending? That's annual spending right?

[PTPatrick]

Maybe I'm an idiot?

 

[MissMolly]

Yes

 

[skyking1]

Welcome PTPatrick. It is quite the useful tool, you will keep going back and tweaking your input. Keep digging at all the tabs in there. Most things are covered.

 

[pb4uski]

Maybe I'm an idiot?

Yes

That's not very nice MissMolly!

 

[skyking1]

 

[MissMolly]

I meant yes, it's annual expenses. FIRECalc can be a little intimidating the first time. It takes awhile to figure out it's annual numbers everywhere. I guess I should have added that the annual number also includes how much one will pay in taxes.

 

[old medic]

Maybe I'm an idiot?

Only if you start like I did.... took a few days to notice and figure out the other tabs... But then it became an addiction... I also have added $12K up till I started getting under 100%... also pulling half my 401K out to buy the DW a nice BTD retirement gift in 6 years...
Enjoy

 

[PTPatrick]

Thanks for the input guys!

 

[Rianne]

I have trouble with the inflation tab. CPI consumer price index, PPI producer price index, or 3, 4, 5, 6 inflation rate. I did play around with these numbers and adding 1% to inflation put me under 100%.

 

[Chuckanut]

I have trouble with the inflation tab. CPI consumer price index, PPI producer price index, or 3, 4, 5, 6 inflation rate. I did play around with these numbers and adding 1% to inflation put me under 100%.

Is it necessary to get to 100%?

In reality this is simply a report on what would have happened in the past. 100% success in the past is no guarantee of success in the future.

Firecalc is a good source of information, and a great tool to test your current financial condition against real data from the past. But, it is not able to predict the future.

I think one is better off focusing on things like multiple sources of retirement income. I would rather have income from three sources with 90% past success than all my income from one source with 100% past success.

 

[ERD50]

I have trouble with the inflation tab. CPI consumer price index, PPI producer price index, or 3, 4, 5, 6 inflation rate. I did play around with these numbers and adding 1% to inflation put me under 100%.

I really, really would not "play around" with those numbers/settings. Stick with the historical analysis (default method).

The way I see it, the real value of FIRECalc and other historical calculators is that they look at history, and don't try to assume anything. Inflation, market returns, etc, are not completely independent.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

I... In reality this is simply a report on what would have happened in the past. 100% success in the past is no guarantee of success in the future. ....

Of course - but I sure don't feel comfortable retiring with a profile that I know failed in the past!

... I think one is better off focusing on things like multiple sources of retirement income. I would rather have income from three sources with 90% past success than all my income from one source with 100% past success.

Sure, but they are not mutually exclusive. Most here probably have some SS and/or pension, so it's not just one source.

And I'd rather have 3 sources and 100% historical success, than 3 sources and 90% historical success!

-ERD50

 

[street]

I haven't used FIRECalc for a while or any other financial calculators. When I was planning FIRE I would use everyone under the sun 3 times a day for a year. Lol

This thread got me interested enough to go punch in some numbers. I entered just a quarter of my portfolio (not net worth) of what I have now and got 100% using my same spending number and 30 years. If I did lose 75% of my holdings and things got bad I still could cut my expenses from how I live today.

I'm sure most here are in the same shoes and could still survive in loosing half to three quarters of portfolio. Having a plan when things go bad to is key.

 

[COcheesehead]

I haven't used FIRECalc for a while or any other financial calculators. When I was planning FIRE I would use everyone under the sun 3 times a day for a year. Lol

This thread got me interested enough to go punch in some numbers. I entered just a quarter of my portfolio (not net worth) of what I have now and got 100% using my same spending number and 30 years. If I did lose 75% of my holdings and things got bad I still could cut my expenses from how I live today.

I'm sure most here are in the same shoes and could still survive in loosing half to three quarters of portfolio. Having a plan when things go bad to is key.

You can get similar results by putting in your current portfolio value and ask it to investigate lowest portfolio value for 100%. It will show you how low you can go and still hit 100%.

 

[youbet]

I really, really would not "play around" with those numbers/settings. Stick with the historical analysis (default method).

The way I see it, the real value of FIRECalc and other historical calculators is that they look at history, and don't try to assume anything. Inflation, market returns, etc, are not completely independent.

-ERD50

+1 Totally agree.

Use the FireCalc defaults until you've investigated and understand the back-testing FireCalc is doing. Then try some variations if you wish, but only change/customize from the defaults if when you see the difference in outcomes, you truly understand why they changed.

Also, understand and become comfortable with the wide range of outcomes presented by any FireCalc run. Sometimes it's hard to get your head around the concept that an 95% successful run, in addition to the 5% where you run out of money, has far more outcomes where you die rich!

Remember that the distribution of outcomes is not normal but skewed to the right. The "average" is not the most likely outcome.

FireCalc is really a very "rough and tough" tool. (They all are.) It's kinda silly to make fine tweeks.

 

[street]

You can get similar results by putting in your current portfolio value and ask it to investigate lowest portfolio value for 100%. It will show you how low you can go and still hit 100%.

Thanks, I will have to go back and revisit that option