Super-spreader Situations
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harllee
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Calico, you are not the only person left in NC who is quarantining, etc. My husband and I are doing exactly as you are doing. I too am amazed at how people are acting (and in the case of some of my family, lying about it). If I can't trust friends and family to tell me the truth about their actions during this pandemic can I ever trust them again?
Calico, I have decided the only people we can control is ourselves. DH and I are staying safe and taking care of each other, that is all we can do. I figure if we don't get a vaccine pretty soon that is pretty effective then eventually everyone will get the virus. But personally I want to be one of the last to get it--I figure by then there will be more effective treatments.
JDARNELL
What's your 'best guess' number on the percentage of Sturgis activities that were held outside?
omni
80 percent or more. People ride during the day or visit vendors. In vendor tents people would usually social distance. At night some will go into the bars but most bars are outside. One eyed jacks (a mega bar) could probably hold 1000 people and a lot of it is inside. Concerts are mostly outside also or under large tents open on 3 sides. Tables in here were spread Out a few feet. There was one place that I usually go watch live music at night that I did not visit. Lineup was bad and unless there would have been someone over the top I would not have gone and in that case I would have worn a mask. A lot of camping and outside activities with the rally. Make no mistake though people did pile up at times. By now most Sturgis related clusters should be understood. I wasn’t really concerned about going to the rally as I kind of knew what my routine would be. If I felt something was to crowded I simply did something else.
Here is a link to the Deadwood Kool Nights and it looked like a great event. Some are social distance others are not. https://youtu.be/ujxiUrOMNB8
Calico
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Agree 100%.
retire-early
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as an example take one of my next door neighbors
husband and wife both in their 50s
the wife works as some sort of health aid so she is only home on weekends usually
Tuesday-Friday every week the wife's daughter and daughter's boyfriend comes and stays; do not know what they do the other days of the week
husband and wife goes to his parents for dinner one meal each weekend
today -- the husband's parents are here for lunch along with husband's sister and her family (husband and 2 kids)
The rate of infection is edging higher for the 9th day in a row in the state.
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husband and wife both in their 50s
the wife works as some sort of health aid so she is only home on weekends usually
Tuesday-Friday every week the wife's daughter and daughter's boyfriend comes and stays; do not know what they do the other days of the week
husband and wife goes to his parents for dinner one meal each weekend
today -- the husband's parents are here for lunch along with husband's sister and her family (husband and 2 kids)
The rate of infection is edging higher for the 9th day in a row in the state.
.
harllee
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Intergenerational spreading of Covid-19 is a major problem according to my friend who works for the county in Covid 19 tracing. Many older folks are being infected by their children and grandchildren. This is going to especially be an issue in the winter when it is too cold to meet outside and with the upcoming Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.
Personally I know of 3 instances of intergenerational spreading with bad consequences:
A friend of mine went to a work meeting with no mask, he and some others caught Covid at the meeting. Before he knew he had been infected he invited his father over for dinner. His father caught Covid and later died. My friend is suffering from terrible guilt.
Second friend was keeping her grandchildren this summer while her daughter worked. The daughter caught Covid and gave it to her children and her mother caught Covid from her daughter or grandchildren. The grandmother was hospitalized for weeks with Covid. She has been released but is not fully recovered.
I just recently found out about a third friend who had been at a family get together. Several at the family get together are now sick with Covid ( the get together was outside but masks were not worn ). My friend and her daughter are both hospitalized. The daughter is seriously ill in intensive care and my friend is very sick also but not yet in intensive care.
My Church sends out a prayer list every Sunday. Today's prayer list had about 20 people on it and 8 of those were for Covid-19 (including 3 deaths).
Personally I know of 3 instances of intergenerational spreading with bad consequences:
A friend of mine went to a work meeting with no mask, he and some others caught Covid at the meeting. Before he knew he had been infected he invited his father over for dinner. His father caught Covid and later died. My friend is suffering from terrible guilt.
Second friend was keeping her grandchildren this summer while her daughter worked. The daughter caught Covid and gave it to her children and her mother caught Covid from her daughter or grandchildren. The grandmother was hospitalized for weeks with Covid. She has been released but is not fully recovered.
I just recently found out about a third friend who had been at a family get together. Several at the family get together are now sick with Covid ( the get together was outside but masks were not worn ). My friend and her daughter are both hospitalized. The daughter is seriously ill in intensive care and my friend is very sick also but not yet in intensive care.
My Church sends out a prayer list every Sunday. Today's prayer list had about 20 people on it and 8 of those were for Covid-19 (including 3 deaths).
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audreyh1
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I know that some of your examples are from much earlier in the epidemic. But it seems like the same stuff keeps happening over and over again. Like people just can’t learn.
This just really drives me crazy. Why do younger more exposed folks insist on getting close enough to infect their older relatives? Maybe older relatives are demanding they do so as well. I guess they all really don’t believe anything bad will happen, that somehow they will be spared.
This just really drives me crazy. Why do younger more exposed folks insist on getting close enough to infect their older relatives? Maybe older relatives are demanding they do so as well. I guess they all really don’t believe anything bad will happen, that somehow they will be spared.
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And why are older relatives allowing it? My cousins keep going over to visit my mom. Who I haven’t seen since December because I feel it’s too risky, even though we’ve been relatively isolated. The worst is that they’re not even going to help out or bring groceries. Purely to visit socially. I’m very angry about it still.
Calico, I find what you described so disappointing. I feel like we’ve been making huge sacrifices so that our kids could have some form of in person learning and we don’t contribute to spread. It’s so frustrating to hear about people who aren’t modifying their behaviors at all.
Chuckanut
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A lot of it reminds me of smokers I knew in my younger days. When reminded of the risk of lung cancer their reply was "Well, I haven't got it yet."
I think many of these folks have probably spent time with their families, playing with the grands and it worked out OK back in May, June, July, etc. so they keep doing it figuring that repeated risk won't increase their chance of eventually getting the disease. It's sort of like playing Russian Roulette over and over since the bullet hasn't hit your brain yet.
I have taken a few very small risks - two dinners outdoors with one other couple, seeing the grandkids for a short time. But, now I am pulling back. I took some well managed chances. Won the bets. Time to take the winnings and walk away while I see what happens with future infection rates, vaccines and treatments.
FWIW, I consider well managed chances to be doing the above when the infection rate in my county was at or near it's lowest point of 30 per 100,000. Today it is about 90 per 100,000, down from 160 per 100,000 a month ago. Better, but not nearly good enough to schedule another dinner. In fact now that we are within a quarter or two of a useful vaccine (I hope) the infection rate is going to have to go plenty low for me to take a chance again. I am not a Winter person and am perfectly happy hunkering down at home, with well managed, easy to isolate myself day-trips from time to time.
GravitySucks
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I didn't know we went from kids being immune to being super spreaders. The truth ends up being in the middle as usual.
https://www.sciencefriday.com/radio/
https://www.sciencefriday.com/radio/
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audreyh1
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It’s pretty wild the swings about children. A lot of countries and organizations have made decisions about children based in reports that later turned out not to be true. I think the main confusion comes from children getting less sick, or much more likely to be asymptomatic. But that doesn’t mean that they can’t infect other people. It appears that they do easily. I think some of the early reports about kids not spreading it to other family members is simply that the kids were being kept home, so weren’t being exposed outside the family.
Lsbcal
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Reading some of this thread has made me think about our situation.
Our son and his fiancee were to be married in late March but the big wedding was cancelled. Now they are talking about having a small family outdoor wedding this month. We would have about 8 adults total and perhaps in our backyard. 4 adults are older (us included) and 4 are young adults (2 are medical doctors). 3 children would be there I think (one is a baby, one is about 1 year old and 1 is about 5 years old). We would all try to reduce our social interactions before the event to reduce risk.
In our area testing is available but it looks like you need to have a symptom or have been exposed in some way. The results are available in 2-3 days. So I don't know if DW and I would be able to get testing. But we are extremely careful about interactions and would double down on that.
Our backyard is pretty large and we'd try to spread out. I guess I would try to emphasize mask wearing to begin with until greetings are done and we could spread better. Seating for any food would be spread out as well.
We are somewhat conflicted about this but probably would go ahead if DS + fiancee want to proceed with the wedding.
Please be gentle with your criticisms. I'm a sensitive guy.
Our son and his fiancee were to be married in late March but the big wedding was cancelled. Now they are talking about having a small family outdoor wedding this month. We would have about 8 adults total and perhaps in our backyard. 4 adults are older (us included) and 4 are young adults (2 are medical doctors). 3 children would be there I think (one is a baby, one is about 1 year old and 1 is about 5 years old). We would all try to reduce our social interactions before the event to reduce risk.
In our area testing is available but it looks like you need to have a symptom or have been exposed in some way. The results are available in 2-3 days. So I don't know if DW and I would be able to get testing. But we are extremely careful about interactions and would double down on that.
Our backyard is pretty large and we'd try to spread out. I guess I would try to emphasize mask wearing to begin with until greetings are done and we could spread better. Seating for any food would be spread out as well.
We are somewhat conflicted about this but probably would go ahead if DS + fiancee want to proceed with the wedding.
Please be gentle with your criticisms. I'm a sensitive guy.
San Diego State has issued stay at home orders for students living on campus. Not "go-home" - but stay in your dorm. Only a small fraction of students were living on campus - nursing students and science/engineering students who needed in person labs and practicals. That has now reverted to online.
They are specifically not sending students home because the positivity rate hit 28% and they don't want the students spreading it to their home households.
I suspect SDSU is typical for most universities that were trying a limited opening of in person. Bring a bunch of kids from all over the country and let them spread it amongs themselves and see what happens.
They are specifically not sending students home because the positivity rate hit 28% and they don't want the students spreading it to their home households.
I suspect SDSU is typical for most universities that were trying a limited opening of in person. Bring a bunch of kids from all over the country and let them spread it amongs themselves and see what happens.
timo2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Reading some of this thread has made me think about our situation.
Our son and his fiancee were to be married in late March but the big wedding was cancelled. Now they are talking about having a small family outdoor wedding this month. We would have about 8 adults total and perhaps in our backyard. 4 adults are older (us included) and 4 are young adults (2 are medical doctors). 3 children would be there I think (one is a baby, one is about 1 year old and 1 is about 5 years old). We would all try to reduce our social interactions before the event to reduce risk.
In our area testing is available but it looks like you need to have a symptom or have been exposed in some way. The results are available in 2-3 days. So I don't know if DW and I would be able to get testing. But we are extremely careful about interactions and would double down on that.
Our backyard is pretty large and we'd try to spread out. I guess I would try to emphasize mask wearing to begin with until greetings are done and we could spread better. Seating for any food would be spread out as well.
We are somewhat conflicted about this but probably would go ahead if DS + fiancee want to proceed with the wedding.
Please be gentle with your criticisms. I'm a sensitive guy.
For the wedding, use the noodle hats for physical distancing.
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explanade
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Reading some of this thread has made me think about our situation.
Our son and his fiancee were to be married in late March but the big wedding was cancelled. Now they are talking about having a small family outdoor wedding this month. We would have about 8 adults total and perhaps in our backyard. 4 adults are older (us included) and 4 are young adults (2 are medical doctors). 3 children would be there I think (one is a baby, one is about 1 year old and 1 is about 5 years old). We would all try to reduce our social interactions before the event to reduce risk.
In our area testing is available but it looks like you need to have a symptom or have been exposed in some way. The results are available in 2-3 days. So I don't know if DW and I would be able to get testing. But we are extremely careful about interactions and would double down on that.
Our backyard is pretty large and we'd try to spread out. I guess I would try to emphasize mask wearing to begin with until greetings are done and we could spread better. Seating for any food would be spread out as well.
We are somewhat conflicted about this but probably would go ahead if DS + fiancee want to proceed with the wedding.
Please be gentle with your criticisms. I'm a sensitive guy.
Bathrooms?
Open windows if possible.
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audreyh1
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Leave the masks on for the entire get together. And still social distance as much as possible.
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Also consider how to handle the food preparation and service. While fomite transmission appears to be a smaller concern than once thought, having a bunch of people hovering over a buffet table and handling the same serving utensils may not be the best way. Maybe one person is the server with the big spoon. Sort of like a military chow line.
The Cosmic Avenger
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Remember, individuals are responsible, but people are idiots. I would do the chow line, or better yet, boxed gourmet meals, that way they're not exposed to hardly anything after they're packed. Whether that would work depends partially on the menu, I guess, so having a server dish out foods to a socially-distanced line of people going past might be the most tenable solution.
I’ve been on a cruise that had a possible norovirus outbreak, and the buffets and beverage stations immediately switched to the chow line approach.
REWahoo
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Update on the spread of Covid 19 resulting from the Sturgis Rally:
Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota in August linked to more than 250,000 coronavirus cases, study finds
The article details how the estimates were calculated. Even if the estimates are off by half, the spread as a result of the rally is tragic.
Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota in August linked to more than 250,000 coronavirus cases, study finds
The article details how the estimates were calculated. Even if the estimates are off by half, the spread as a result of the rally is tragic.
USGrant1962
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That is pretty sketchy math. Per the article, they attributed 100% of all increased cases in the "inflow" counties to Sturgis. They apparently ignored reopenings, schools, and just the random variation in case counts to come up with that clickbait headline.
But hey, it is MarketWatch.
REWahoo
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audreyh1
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The estimate seems to come down to this:
I don’t see where they explain the trajectory that case increases in counties with visitors to Sturgis were already on, and how the rates increased. Also schools opening in those counties could have played a role in increased cases.
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