#### cute fuzzy bunny

##### Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...

One of the wonder twins noted that if you switched two the returns in any 2 years at random in a 30 year SWR run, you fundamentally changed the SWR for the worse. The derived presumption was that our historic SWR's were therefore based on the luck of things falling the right way and returns coming up the way they did.

So heres the discussion point. Presuming that this case is in fact true (confidence factor: somewhat low) does it say that returns are in fact somewhat random and we've just had good luck, or does it indicate some sort of correlation of returns from one year to the next that creates a positive influence on SWR's?

I have a few opinions, but I'm interested in what others think first.