ok and so, what are you doing differently, if anything, if we are or are not?
First, I'm tired of the endless word games taking place. There is one and only one occurrence that I know of where we've had two quarters of negative GDP growth in which it wasn't a recession, and that was right after WW II. Now we have Wikipedia and other sources being edited to remove definitions because it causes political discomfort.
Having said that, my plan and actions are independent of what the talking heads speak, or even whether everyone around me talks about how nice the emperors clothes are when I can see nakedness.
"When you find yourself in a hole, the first thing should be to stop digging." THIS is my issue with the mass denial we have in society, and why the happy talk about employment and no recession and everything is great is a problem. I can't do anything about it, other than b*tch here and more importantly prepare myself as best as possible given the current course and speed.
I don't pretend to know the future - all I can do is assess risk and probabilities, and adapt quickly if my hypothesis is incorrect. My thesis is that most of the fed action is talk - QT has been minimal so far and the nominal rates are FAR below the inflation rate. They will play this game as long as they can, hoping that the economy magically cools w/o significant unemployment issues. However, I think they will pivot before the end of the year because they will finally see the deterioration (even with "sticky" inflation) and we still have fiscal stimulus offsetting monetary tightening, both from the ongoing deficit and also via more "inflation fighting" spending programs. If I thought the Fed and government were truly going to tame inflation, I believe it would require a severe recession (worse than 2008/09/10). Given "they" don't want a repeat of the Great Depression, they will err on the side of stimulus, thus my believe they will pivot earlier than expected.
I may be right or may be wrong about the above. I don't post here because I think I will convince everyone of my genius ability to predict the future - I can't. Heck, I've given up long ago trying to convince just about anyone of anything. I'm posting my thoughts mostly to express them to myself, and as a way of getting others ideas and thoughts.
Below I will lay out where I am as of today:
I am about 50% cash, which is high for me. Typically I run somewhere between a 60 to 70% equity allocation. I have no long term fixed investments - it is all short term (yes, inflation is killing it) or inflation adjusted (TIPS, iBonds). My pension is a good size, but fixed (the no colar is a problem, but what can I do about it). In my tax-deferred accounts, I've raised a lot of cash over the last year - but still have some of it invested in equities. In my non-tax-deferred accounts, I have taken a more measured approach because I have large LT capital gains (over a million $). So I need to be careful of selling in terms of tax ramifications. [I have taken some LT CG, approximately 40k or so YTD.] So a good chunk of that remains in holdings that WILL GO DOWN if the market goes down, but also (hopefully) allows me to hedge if my thesis is correct. Thus, I need to keep $ in stocks and hope I am wise enough to increase my allocation for the pivot.
I also have hedged a bit in commodities and precious metals. While I have Gold purchases from 2013, etc., most of my purchases have been more recent and it is more there if things get really bad vs. current conditions. [I have about 5-6% in PM's. Not enough to live forever, but enough for a couple years if absolutely necessary.]
Each day I assess things. We are rallying, am I wrong? The market is falling, am I too long? Or, is it an opportunity to pick up something low in its trading range? Is this the end of the bear market (e.g. we will have a very mild recession and then upward) or just a bear market rally (e.g. the market rallied 48% from 11/13/1929 to April 1930)? Yes, I know the market will rally BEFORE economic conditions show the all clear. Which is it? We will only know in retrospect, but I will respect this rally, try to play it, but at the same time keep a short leash on positions. (For example, I trimmed things Wednesday-Friday). Did I sell everything I had bought over the last month? No - but I did take some profits because they were there for the taking. Should I buy other things - are they going to join in? And so on. [This is the active investing, market strategy and alternative assets area.
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Finally, back to your original question - which I can summarize as "At this point, what does it matter?" The truth matters, and crafting policy that recognizes economic conditions matter.