jclarksnakes
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Jun 2, 2006
- Messages
- 927
Sounds pretty basic.
Glad to see we have all gotten away from the caustic comments.
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Sounds pretty basic.
I'll assume you wanted to type "lye"...Make your bed and ly in it.
Midpack said:FIFY. Of course from reading the OP link you know 4% was a SAFE WR for a 30 year planning horizon with a 95% success rate. And people say Dr Pfau's being repetitive...
+1 (so do I/DW, while updating our PROI - Personal Rate of Inflation)...For the record I recalculate my SWR every year.
Except you've specified a 4% SWR which is based on 30 years as indeed your link clearly states. The SWR for 48 years is not the same, 4% would be a WR, not a SWR unless you accept a lower success rate. 4% isn't meant to apply to every number of years, it's more than 4% for 15 years and less than 4% for 45 years.If you look at the definition Safe Withdrawal Rates - Bogleheads here you won't see any mention of 30 years. It says "any time within the specified time period." For the record I recalculate my SWR every year.
Limitations of the Trinity study
One scenario backtested in the Trinity study suggests that a retiree with a suitably allocated $1 million portfolio could withdraw $40,000 the first year, give herself a cost-of-living adjustment every year afterwards, and have a 98% chance of the portfolio lasting at least 30 years.
5. The 4% rule is based on a planning horizon of 30 years. Those with other planning horizons must adjust their withdrawal rate accordingly.
Midpack said:Except you've specified a 4% SWR which is based on 30 years as your link states clearly states. The SWR for 48 years is not the same, 4% would be a WR, not a SWR. 4% isn't meant to apply to every number of years, it's more than 4% for 15 years and less than 4% for 45 years.
For the record I recalculate my SWR every year.
For those with a premium membership in Morningstar, this interview might be worth the time to watch or read the transcript (don't know if it's available elsewhere for others). It features Bill Bernstein, Sue Stevens and John Ameriks discussing a lot of the same stuff covered by Dr. Phau relative to this thread.
No new secrets revealed. I think we know pretty much what there is to know at this point. But interesting to see relative points of view at least.
retirement income M*
Since Obgyn isn't yet retired, I think his annual calculation of SWR is nothing more than a "what if" exercise.