Midpack
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I just read a blog that referred to this NYT Op-Ed from a few months ago. We're in a fringe neighborhood IMO and I'm a little nervous about resale longer term. I believe there's a good chance this trend will continue and plan to buy our next home in a walkable, urban area or equivalent - in or near a large metro area with good prospects.
I've also read two convincing books on the topic, The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 and The Great Reset.
Even if we're wrong, hedging in this direction holds little if any downside for us. Time will tell...
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/26/opinion/the-death-of-the-fringe-suburb.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print
I've also read two convincing books on the topic, The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 and The Great Reset.
Even if we're wrong, hedging in this direction holds little if any downside for us. Time will tell...
Simply put, there has been a profound structural shift — a reversal of what took place in the 1950s, when drivable suburbs boomed and flourished as center cities emptied and withered.
Many boomers are now empty nesters and approaching retirement. Generally this means that they will downsize their housing in the near future. Boomers want to live in a walkable urban downtown, a suburban town center or a small town, according to a recent survey by the National Association of Realtors.
Over all, only 12 percent of future homebuyers want the drivable suburban-fringe houses that are in such oversupply, according to the Realtors survey. This lack of demand all but guarantees continued price declines. Boomers selling their fringe housing will only add to the glut. Nothing the federal government can do will reverse this.
Many drivable-fringe house prices are now below replacement value, meaning the land under the house has no value and the sticks and bricks are worth less than they would cost to replace. This means there is no financial incentive to maintain the house; the next dollar invested will not be recouped upon resale. Many of these houses will be converted to rentals, which are rarely as well maintained as owner-occupied housing. Add the fact that the houses were built with cheap materials and methods to begin with, and you see why many fringe suburbs are turning into slums, with abandoned housing and rising crime.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/26/opinion/the-death-of-the-fringe-suburb.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print
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