I admit to being both stupid (ask the moderators) and greedy.
I have never been able to match the performance of Wellington (NAV+dividends). And so it goes.
Moderator here. Gypsy Ed is a smart guy.
I admit to being both stupid (ask the moderators) and greedy.
I have never been able to match the performance of Wellington (NAV+dividends). And so it goes.
Well, I managed to take $1.25M out of the equity market in 2007 and put it into cash. But by not being able to decide when to get back in I pretty much broke even or even lost a little over the next 5 years. So no, you have to be right at least twice.
You're also a gambler every time you climb into your car and every time you buy lettuce. Your point is?
Whether you are 100% equities or 100% treasuries, you’re not an investor, you’re a gambler.
I went into 3.0% and 3.5% 5-year CDs in mid 2019. BND is spanking me because of the decline in interest rates since then but I keep telling myself that my day will come when rates rise.
Really? Do you arrange to have no other vehicles near the roads and intersections when you drive? Do you have bridges inspected before you drive over them? Have you arranged to have the pickers of the lettuce you eat to be inspected for e coli? There are a lot of dead people who risked driving and lettuce and lost the gamble.No I’m not...I’m not relying on luck when I drive or buy lettuce.
No I’m not...I’m not relying on luck when I drive or buy lettuce.
Assuming you have a 50% chance of being correct, that means you have a 25% chance of success with market timing. Because you have to be correct twice, when you pull money out, and when you put it back in. I prefer better odds with the money I need to live off of.
To each his own...
Well I gamble a lot (casinos and markets). I'm not an investor (I'm a swing trader) so I can see many similarities. However, from my POV there are some important differences between the two like: Casino's limit how much I can bet on each bet, (spin of the wheel, turn of the card or roll of the dice), markets don't have such limits. OTH, casinos are pretty much a 100% win or lose proposition per "bet", markets are not since I can sell if I don't like the way the bet is going.I belong in the camp that there is very little difference between gambling and investing. In both cases, you do not know whether it was a good gamble or a good investment until after the fact.
Agree.I belong in the camp that there is very little difference between gambling and investing. In both cases, you do not know whether it was a good gamble or a good investment until after the fact. In both cases, successful gambling and investing partly depends on both luck and experience. There are successful gamblers and successful investors and there are unsuccessful ones.
Going to the "car to buy luttuce" analogy: It takes experience to drive your car and avoid an accident. It also takes luck that a drunk driver does not plow into you from your blind spot.
I may have reallocated from a 60/40 portfolio to 100% treasuries 6 months before the decline but I freely admitted there was some luck involved since I did not predict the corona virus. NOBODY could have. The corona virus comes close to that drunk driver plowing into you from your blind spot.
IMO the only difference between gambling and investing is that the odds are better with investing and that some people are lucky and experienced while some people are not.
Assuming you have a 50% chance of being correct, that means you have a 25% chance of success with market timing. Because you have to be correct twice, when you pull money out, and when you put it back in. I prefer better odds with the money I need to live off of.
To each his own...
So you're ready to buy back into equities now at 20%? Not a terrible plan, but as I remember in 2008/2009 the market would drop, rise, drop more, rise a bit, on and on. That's why it was so hard for me to decide when to get back in. I ended up missing the final upswing and by the time I was sure there wasn't another drop coming I had missed a lot of the gains. How will your plan deal with that? Also, do you reset to the current market price or are you basing the numbers on the highest point?