I don't think the question should be "how do we maximize our chances of getting the most money", but instead "how do I maximize my chances of achieving an acceptable level of money". They aren't the same question.
For example, if offered the chance to take my entire savings and gamble it on the flip of a coin, and I'd be paid 3:1 if I win, then I should >clearly< take the risk if I want to maximize my chances of getting the most money (question #1). But I should not take the risk if I want to maximize the chances of having enough money to be happy (question 2), because a loss brings me far more unhappiness than the quantity of happiness that a win would provide, and the chances of each outcome are equal. The first $10K of investment income per year has a lot more marginal utility than the 5th $10K.
DW will claim the spousal SS benefit under my record. For us, delaying SS is the cheapest way to provide a larger lifetime annuity, especially for her. If things go poorly on the investment front, that's a good backstop, and that's more important than trying to maximize the ultimate absolute amount of dollars by taking SS early and investing the difference, esp since 1) actuarilly speaking, the expected amounts from SS are about the same and 2) the assumptions about portfolio growth and other factors under each course of action are subject to quite a bit of uncertainty.
If the market is down and the economy is in a funk when I'm eligible for SS, I think it may be harder (not easier) to take SS early--to permanently reduce the size of the monthly SS checks just when it is clearest that the SS money might be really useful if markets don't recover well (i.e. if it really is "different this time").
For example, if offered the chance to take my entire savings and gamble it on the flip of a coin, and I'd be paid 3:1 if I win, then I should >clearly< take the risk if I want to maximize my chances of getting the most money (question #1). But I should not take the risk if I want to maximize the chances of having enough money to be happy (question 2), because a loss brings me far more unhappiness than the quantity of happiness that a win would provide, and the chances of each outcome are equal. The first $10K of investment income per year has a lot more marginal utility than the 5th $10K.
DW will claim the spousal SS benefit under my record. For us, delaying SS is the cheapest way to provide a larger lifetime annuity, especially for her. If things go poorly on the investment front, that's a good backstop, and that's more important than trying to maximize the ultimate absolute amount of dollars by taking SS early and investing the difference, esp since 1) actuarilly speaking, the expected amounts from SS are about the same and 2) the assumptions about portfolio growth and other factors under each course of action are subject to quite a bit of uncertainty.
If the market is down and the economy is in a funk when I'm eligible for SS, I think it may be harder (not easier) to take SS early--to permanently reduce the size of the monthly SS checks just when it is clearest that the SS money might be really useful if markets don't recover well (i.e. if it really is "different this time").
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