tonights DOW futures

[al_bundy]

A sustainable stock rally requires that the housing situation be solved.

Does anyone believe that the real estate market is turning around?

did you forget the 1990's? deflation in the RE market frees up a lot of money for spending

 

[al_bundy]

This incredibly complex crisis has been developing and festering for YEARS. Somehow, I just can't believe that this mess will suddenly go away because the various central banks have waved a magic wand -- and we will suddenly be "off to the races" again. The fundamental problems that created this crisis, for the most part, still exist. I believe it is going to take a lot of hard work, and a fairly substantial period of time, to resolve them. I wish I could still believe in Hollywood endings . . . but I suspect those who are counting on one may be disappointed.

the stock market was pricing in the end of the world, now that it's over it can rally until it figures out what stocks are reall worth.

 

[maddythebeagle]

the stock market was pricing in the end of the world, now that it's over it can rally until it figures out what stocks are reall worth.

Since we are all still here, I suspect that stocks are worth more

 

[al_bundy]

last month the SP500 2008 earnings were estimated to be around $63. my guess the real number will be closer to $50 by the end of the year. no one really cares about 2008 earnings now.

once the rally ends earnings will again be center stage and the fallout of the crisis won't come out until next year.

in the past the Fed would wait until options expiration week to cut rates and send the shorts on a mad buying spree to cover. they didn't have the luxury this time.

my prediction is the SP500 rallies to 1200 or so, Naz to around 2000 - 2100 in the next few months then starts to sell off a bit. by next year we'll see the economic and corporate damage that was done.

Circuit City will probably go under along with a few other weak retailers. wouldn't surprise me if Federated is going to have problems as well.
BAC is starting to have problems with the Countrywide purchase. I think US Bank will have problems next year as CRE problems come up.
GM, Ford and Chrysler are going to be front page stories on a regular basis. in the last few years average auto sales were around 17 million per year. estimates are now 13 million for the next few years. that's a lot of subcontractors that will lose a lot of business and layoffs to come.

 

[TromboneAl]

Didn't CFB call the bottom here? Calling the bottom!

No, he was off by two days. I called it here. I da man.

 

[Zoocat]

What will DOW futures look like overnight? Anyone want to guess?