Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds Discussion

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jldavid47 said:
Except the FOMC isn't dropping rates. They are simply going to slow the rate of increase then hold. There is no drop coming, so even if you hold the belief that the Fed funds rate affects the short end of the curve quickly there is no reason to believe T-Bill rates will be dropping any time soon.
I said stopping not cutting, big difference, they could hold rates for all of 2023 at whatever level they think is appropriate. In fact I said I thought they wouldn't consider cutting for 6 months and that would be the end of June. I tend to doubt they'd cut that soon but I'd assume certainly no sooner than that.
Um, I'm gonna have to throw the challenge flag on that one. :D Let's go to the replay:
I have heard and read that the Fed funds rate effects the short end of the curve fast so it seems reasonable the T bills will reflect a drop in the FOMC rate faster than say a note which may have that already priced in.
"A drop in FOMC rate" implies cutting the (discount) rate. That's what I was responding to. Maybe you meant the rate of increase instead, but that's not what you said.
 
[waving arms and blowing whistle]

The ruling on the field is that Graybeard's statement, as quoted by JlDavid47, was intended to be factual, not predictive of rate direction.

Graybeard and JlDavid47's posts are under further, but friendly, review.
 
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What kills me is thinking that todays rates are high. While I'd love it, that means inflation is under control. I have my doubts. But then again who knows?
 
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Well you said that you assumed T-bill rates would go down once the market feels like the Fed is getting close to stopping rate hikes. Thus the confusion and wondering why you were assuming that, because stopping rate hikes is not enough.

Yeah that was kind of a statement that was more a question in disguise! ;)
 
Um, I'm gonna have to throw the challenge flag on that one. :D Let's go to the replay:

"A drop in FOMC rate" implies cutting the (discount) rate. That's what I was responding to. Maybe you meant the rate of increase instead, but that's not what you said.

Yes a "drop in the FOMC rate" is a cut. I was responding to your comment questioning why I said T bills would start to drop (was it first or quickly) if the Fed were to cut and it is because the short end of the curve will respond to a Fed rate cut faster than 2, 5, 10 year notes which may well have already priced in the expectations of a Fed cut. I doubt the Fed will cut the FOMC rate in 2023 but my crystal ball is cloudy. A cut prior to 7/1 would really be a surprise but perhaps in the final month or two of 2023? Who knows.:greetings10:
 
I've gotten a check for IRA rollovers 3x over the years. 2 out of those 3 times resulted in an IRS audit centered on the rollover. The last one was extremely messy and frightening with the IRS threatening to freeze our accounts for a rollover that occurred the same day (the two banks shared a parking lot).

From now on, if the new institution can't pull the IRA/401k from the old institution without the funds going through my hands, they stay put. I'm never taking an rollover check again ever.



I am nearly overwhelmed by how complicated it is to perform rollovers and transfers. I wonder exactly why you were audited? It’s been quite awhile since I’ve jad to handle a check but the only problem I had was convincing my credit union to accept the check. More often than not there some issue but Fidelity has only been the problem once. My worst experience was a 1099 issued by mistake from a local bank. That held up our tax return for a year but at least I didn’t get audited!
 
Yes a "drop in the FOMC rate" is a cut. I was responding to your comment questioning why I said T bills would start to drop (was it first or quickly) if the Fed were to cut and it is because the short end of the curve will respond to a Fed rate cut faster than 2, 5, 10 year notes which may well have already priced in the expectations of a Fed cut. I doubt the Fed will cut the FOMC rate in 2023 but my crystal ball is cloudy. A cut prior to 7/1 would really be a surprise but perhaps in the final month or two of 2023? Who knows.:greetings10:
Really the only reasons for the Fed to cut rates once they stop raising rates would be: the US enters recession and unemployment climbs a lot; inflation drops below 2%; or some sudden unexpected financial crisis hits the US.

So I’m not even expecting a late 2023 rate cut unless the above occur and the trend is looking really bad. Could be quite a while.
 
I've gotten a check for IRA rollovers 3x over the years. 2 out of those 3 times resulted in an IRS audit centered on the rollover. The last one was extremely messy and frightening with the IRS threatening to freeze our accounts for a rollover that occurred the same day (the two banks shared a parking lot).

From now on, if the new institution can't pull the IRA/401k from the old institution without the funds going through my hands, they stay put. I'm never taking an rollover check again ever.


We also did some rollovers where we took possession of the money. I did everything by the book. The money was deposited promptly in the new account yet we got a bill for 5 figure from the IRS. I had a CPA do our taxes that year and if I remember right she did them correctly. Guilty until proven innocent of actually doing the rollovers! I sent the IRS a copy of our bank records showing us receiving the money and then the money going out to Fidelity, plus the transactions at Fidelity showing the money going into IRAs. And then we they said we were fine. But that letter with the amount owed was pretty scary to open and then we had to worry all during the time they took to review the documentation I sent in.
 
We also got one of those "you owe 5 figures" letters from the IRS when they incorrectly assumed the basis in some employee stock purchase was zero. Feels a bit like they act like the scammers...send out 100 letters and a couple people will pay the bill out of stupidity.
 
Really the only reasons for the Fed to cut rates once they stop raising rates would be: the US enters recession and unemployment climbs a lot; inflation drops below 2%; or some sudden unexpected financial crisis hits the US.



So I’m not even expecting a late 2023 rate cut unless the above occur and the trend is looking really bad. Could be quite a while.
Don't disagree. But how do you evaluate the last 3 monthly CPI readings. They annualize to a rate under 2%. According to the figures, inflation is rising at a much lower rate than the annual headline number suggests.
 
This weeks T-bill auction results:
BillsCMBCUSIPIssue DateHigh RateInvestment RatePrice per $100
4-WeekNo912796ZJ112/13/20223.650%3.711%$99.716111
8-WeekNo912796ZT912/13/20223.940%4.019%$99.387111
13-WeekNo912796YK912/08/20224.270%4.377%$98.920639
17-WeekNo912796CT412/13/20224.400%4.527%$98.545556
26-WeekNo912796ZP712/08/20224.570%4.743%$97.689611

Looks like 4 and 8-week dropped a little, as did the 13 week.
Last weeks results: https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...d-bonds-discussion-115186-47.html#post2860883

Interestingly, the 26-week (6 month) T-bill crossed to a higher rate than the 52-week (1 year) T-bill this week on the secondary market. The 52-week T-bill won’t be auctioned again until Dec 27.

I'm glad I hit the 52-week hard on the most recent 1-year T-Bill auction.
OTOH, in delaying my 401k->Rollover conversion until near Thanksgiving, I missed out on some of the post 2023 higher rates (I have less than 10% allocated to post December 2023 CD's or T-Notes.) I was originally planning on going in on the Dec 12th 3-year and maybe even a bit of the 10-year but now I might just wait it out.

The peak of the treasury curve is now around the 7-8 month mark, and after the 1 year mark yields drop pretty drastically/quickly.
 
Don't disagree. But how do you evaluate the last 3 monthly CPI readings. They annualize to a rate under 2%. According to the figures, inflation is rising at a much lower rate than the annual headline number suggests.
0.1 0.4 and 0.4? Looks higher than 2% annualized.
 
I am nearly overwhelmed by how complicated it is to perform rollovers and transfers. I wonder exactly why you were audited? It’s been quite awhile since I’ve jad to handle a check but the only problem I had was convincing my credit union to accept the check. More often than not there some issue but Fidelity has only been the problem once. My worst experience was a 1099 issued by mistake from a local bank. That held up our tax return for a year but at least I didn’t get audited!

So it wasn't an audit in terms of going through the return and checking numbers. The IRS has a special section (forget the name, it was 10 years ago) that apparently focuses on IRAs. I got a vague letter stating there was a problem with my IRA without telling me what the actual problem was and requesting (demanding) additional info... again, without saying what info was needed.
Over the span of about 4 months of repeated cycles of:

  1. taking my documentation down to the local IRS office to talk to them in person.
  2. the local office saying "this looks clear, I'm sure this will resolve the problem" AND the locals sending the additional documentation to this special IRS group.
  3. receiving yet another letter from the IRS stating the documentation is unsatisfactory (without saying why) and escalating warnings (threats) that penalties and interest would apply and finally threatening to freeze ALL of my bank accounts.
I finally called a CPA that I worked with on audits of a local charity. He pointed me to the Taxpayer Advocates office. The Taxpayer Advocate was able to give me the direct phone number to the "IRA group" within the IRS. I called them and asked what, exactly, is their concern. The conversation went like this.
IRS: All they wanted to know was that the IRA was rolled over within 60 days.
ME: I replied the IRA was rolled over that same afternoon as I literally walked the check across the parking lot from the old bank (Wells Fargo) to the new bank (Wachovia).
IRS: "Oh... OK. That's what we needed".
ME: "Do you need any proof? I can send more documentation with dates".
IRS: "Nah... we're good".
End of 15 minute call. End of story.
The IRS was about to impound my entire life savings but didn't need any proof over what I was verbally telling them on the phone.

To this day my wife has a panic attack when mail arrives from the IRS... so I warn her in advance when I order tax forms and pubs to be sent by the mail.


I just moved my wifes IRA last week from a local credit union to Fidelity. I open the new IRA account at Fidelity, point Fidelity at the credit union and upload a copy of the last statement using Fidelity's document vault. The $ are now in Fidelity without me touching a check or even speaking to the credit union.
 
0.1 0.4 and 0.4? Looks higher than 2% annualized.
You have to dig out the actual reported unadjusted index figures and do the math. And you left out the 0.0 for July.

June index 296.311
Oct index. 298.012
Change: 1.701 over 4 mo
Annualized (x3): 5.103
% 1.72%

Even annualizing the seasonally adjusted, rounded monthly figures (0.0 , 0.1, 0.4, 0.4) gives you 2.7%.
 
Don't disagree. But how do you evaluate the last 3 monthly CPI readings. They annualize to a rate under 2%. According to the figures, inflation is rising at a much lower rate than the annual headline number suggests.

0.1 0.4 and 0.4? Looks higher than 2% annualized.

You have to dig out the actual reported unadjusted index figures and do the math. And you left out the 0.0 for July.

June index 296.311
Oct index. 298.012
Change: 1.701 over 4 mo
Annualized (x3): 5.103
% 1.72%

Even annualizing the seasonally adjusted, rounded monthly figures (0.0 , 0.1, 0.4, 0.4) gives you 2.7%.

Well, you did say last 3 months, ha ha, but point taken.

I suppose since the most recent months have gone back up the trend is not so promising. Plus July 0.0 and August 0.1 followed a 1.0 May and a 1.3 June.
 
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I've gotten a check for IRA rollovers 3x over the years. 2 out of those 3 times resulted in an IRS audit centered on the rollover. The last one was extremely messy and frightening with the IRS threatening to freeze our accounts for a rollover that occurred the same day (the two banks shared a parking lot).

From now on, if the new institution can't pull the IRA/401k from the old institution without the funds going through my hands, they stay put. I'm never taking an rollover check again ever.

Isn't it pretty easy to prove by simply providing them with a statement from the old IRA showing the withdrawal and a statement from the IRA that it was deposited to showing the deposit. Also, wouldn't the 1099-R indicate that the deposit was a rollover?

Whie I usually try to do a trustee-to-trustee transfer if I do a withdrawal and deposit I am very specific when I make the deposit that they code it as a rollover.
 
Plus July 0.0 and August 0.1 followed a 1.0 May and a 1.3 June.

Yes. Which was my point. The rate of inflation as measured by monthly CPI has already fallen sharply.

Will it hold at this level, rise from here or decline? Who knows? My guess is we have seen the peak and a new far lower trend has been established.
 
IMO, a 2-3% inflation rate will support T-Bill rates in the 4-5% range. That gives savers a chance to actually make money in real terms.

Interest rates that provide a negative real return have not been the norm in my life. Usually one gets 2-3% over inflation which can actually produce a positive real return after taxes. Today's rates are much more normal based upon my experience and memories

The 'war on savers' has conditioned us to accept a low or negative real return that just doesn't make sense. My 2¢. YMMV.
 
PPI announced today ran a little hotter than expected.
 
I had a 2.1% T bill mature yesterday that I bought in the spring. Now it’s earning 3.72% in the settlement fund. How times have changed in just a few months.
 
I spoke with the bond desk this morning at VG. We have a pretty long ladder of TN and will hold all of them to maturity. The bond desk walked me through the process of finding out the monthly and net coupon deposits on each but could not get me to the page where the net of each bond is at maturity. You have to do them individually from several different pages, one the confirmation page. Then, click on all these different routes to find the total net income at maturity.

I want to create a spreadsheet of each bond, coupon deposit, and net after maturity. For instance one of the bonds:
Purchase price: $97
Coupon: 2.75
YTM: 4.67 (close but not exact)
Purchase date: October 2022
Maturity date: December 2023

This is for cash flow and net income after maturity. Why is that so hard?



That takes 2 clicks at Fidelity. Hopefully Vanguard has something similar but I’m trying to learn capabilities of DW’s VG account and realizing it’s limitations
 
I had a 2.1% T bill mature yesterday that I bought in the spring. Now it’s earning 3.72% in the settlement fund. How times have changed in just a few months.
When determining settlement fund yields do you use the fund's 7-day SEC yield?
 
26-week auction results:
CUSIP: 912796X53
Price: 97.659278
Investment Rate: 4.807%
Settlement: December 15, 2022
Maturity: June 15, 2023

I'm happy with this one given the recent downticks.
 
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