Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds Discussion

[jldavid47]

Where do you folks buy secondary treasuries? Everything on Fidelity seems to have a 100 bond minimum, sometimes 250 or more.

I don't know about Fidelity but on Schwab if I am checking in the evening I see similar minimums. During the trading day there are always treasuries available in the secondary market with minimums between 1,000 and 10,000.

 

[jldavid47]

Yes I think the Q1 GDP upward revision was the driver but Powell's unexpectedly hawkish comments still reverberating.

Powell's comments were "unexpectedly hawkish" only to market participants have not been listening to what he has said consistently over the past year. People have been hearing what they want to hear and have not been receptive to what he has actually been saying. The cognitive bias toward reading anything less than aggressively hawkish as dovish has been astounding.

 

[11522914]

Powell's comments were "unexpectedly hawkish" only to market participants have not been listening to what he has said consistently over the past year. People have been hearing what they want to hear and have not been receptive to what he has actually been saying. The cognitive bias toward reading anything less than aggressively hawkish as dovish has been astounding.

+1

 

[Montecfo]

Powell's comments were "unexpectedly hawkish" only to market participants have not been listening to what he has said consistently over the past year. People have been hearing what they want to hear and have not been receptive to what he has actually been saying. The cognitive bias toward reading anything less than aggressively hawkish as dovish has been astounding.

Nonsense.

He announced a pause only last meeting. The premise for the pause was to let the market digest 10 hikes in a row totalling 500 bp. In light of that his comments were surprisingly hawkish. In fact, he seemed to have forgotten the basis for the pause or the definition of the word.

And in fact the Fed not been consistently hawkish since the hike cycle began. It is one of the problems with this Fed is messaging is inconsistent and there are too many voices. And we see strong reactions from the market.

In the Fed's May 4th statement, the language stating the Fed "anticipates" more rate hikes may be needed was dropped from their statement. Reuters described that as " dovish".

AP described Chairman Powell as a "dove" after the pause was announced last meeting.

The Fed's minutes when released throughout the hike cycle have sometimes been described as "dovish".

I watch and read carefully but you may interpret things differently. I personally would not attribute that to bias as that seems presumptive. But calling a view different than yours astounding suggests you may not be watching as closely as some.

 

[vinhmen]

Nonsense.

But calling a view different than yours astounding suggests you may not be watching as closely as some.

What does calling a view different than one's "nonsense" suggest?

 

[Montecfo]

What does calling a view different than one's "nonsense" suggest? [emoji23]

A measured and appropriate response I'd say, considering. And I do see and enjoy the humor aspect. Thank you for that. Who knew the word "surprisingly" should cause angst?

Differing views are what keeps things interesting.

 

[joesxm3]

I just noticed that some of my Series I Bonds have interest rates lower than short term T-Bills.

2005 - 4.60%
2006 - 4.40%
2021 - 3.38%
2022 - 3.38%

My 2000 to 2002 are still higher.

 

[audreyh1]

Looks promising for you guys who have placed orders for the auction tomorrow. Pre-market shows another little pop in the rates.

 

[Another Reader]

Looks promising for you guys who have placed orders for the auction tomorrow. Pre-market shows another little pop in the rates.

Loaded for bear tomorrow!

 

[Healthy Lifestyle]

Loaded for bear tomorrow!

On Vanguard, I got in at 9:29am this morning to buy a 6 month Treasury (auction) accepted @ ~5.44%. Also have one maturing this week to take advantage of more market volatility.
This thread has been a great fix-income lesson for me as I am now retired
and playing defense.

Thank you all for the helpful comments.

 

[audreyh1]

On Vanguard, I got in at 9:29am this morning to buy a 6 month Treasury (auction) accepted @ ~5.44%. Also have one maturing this week to take advantage of more market volatility.
This thread has been a great fix-income lesson for me as I am now retired
and playing defense.

Thank you all for the helpful comments.

Just FYI the auction hasn’t occurred yet. We’ll find out in a little over an hour what today’s auction results were. I think there is a very good chance it will exceed 5.5%.

 

[Bruno]

Just FYI the auction hasn’t occurred yet. We’ll find out in a little over an hour what today’s auction results were. I think there is a very good chance it will exceed 5.5%.

I have a 6mo Tbill that matures on 7/6. Called Fido to buy the 6Mo 912797FW2. Does Fido just buy what i have or what i will have at maturity? If so I guess my interest from that bill just goes to SPAXX?

 

[ExPatKiwi]

Just FYI the auction hasn’t occurred yet. We’ll find out in a little over an hour what today’s auction results were. I think there is a very good chance it will exceed 5.5%.

26W cleared at 5.494%

 

[audreyh1]

I have a 6mo Tbill that matures on 7/6. Called Fido to buy the 6Mo 912797FW2. Does Fido just buy what i have or what i will have at maturity? If so I guess my interest from that bill just goes to SPAXX?

Hopefully they set up an automatic rollover for you and the proceeds you’ll receive on 7/6 from the maturing bill will be used to settle the new one. Did you not specify amount? It should be in your orders list. The difference between the redemption and the new one will go to SPAXX. The interest is the redemption amount minus what you paid to purchase the T-bill 26 weeks ago.

 

[audreyh1]

26W cleared at 5.494%

Well, pretty close.

 

[Bruno]

Hopefully they set up an automatic rollover for you and the proceeds you’ll receive on 7/6 from the maturing bill will be used to settle the new one. Did you not specify amount? It should be in your orders list. The difference between the redemption and the new one will go to SPAXX. The interest is the redemption amount minus what you paid to purchase the T-bill 26 weeks ago.

Thanks You audreyh1, yes I did set up auto roll. Can not call to have auto roll put on but can cancel anytime. I just told Fido i wanted to use the money from maturing Tbill to buy the new issue and add Auto roll.

 

[milford]

Can someone point to me where I can find the expected or possible range of what the interest rate would for an upcoming auction?

 

[Marc]

Can someone point to me where I can find the expected or possible range of what the interest rate would for an upcoming auction?

Fido includes it on the New Issues screen.

 

[milford]

Fido includes it on the New Issues screen.

I don't think Schwab has it ? I'm assuming treasurydirect has it somewhere on their website?

 

[audreyh1]

I don't think Schwab has it ? I'm assuming treasurydirect has it somewhere on their website?

No, you won’t get an expected range on an upcoming auction from Treasury Direct.

But the US Treasury publishes a daily sample of the secondary market which should be close enough. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-...treasury_bill_rates&field_tdr_date_value=2023

Fido expected yield numbers tend to be way conservative. I ignore them.

 

[madatrub]

Fidelity showing 97.3261 for the 26W, 912797FW2

So either you don't get the rate quoted above, or Fido takes a cut.

Should be $97.253

 

[Marc]

Fidelity showing 97.3261 for the 26W, 912797FW2

So either you don't get the rate quoted above, or Fido takes a cut.

Should be $97.253

My fidelity account shows that I will earn 5.494723% for six months based on the 97.3261. Treasury direct site shows 97.340778 so I don't know where the 97.253 comes from.

 

[grasshopper]

TREASURY AUCTION RESULTS
Term and Type of Security 182-Day Bill
CUSIP Number 912797FW2
High Rate 1 5.260%
Allotted at High 72.92%
Price 97.340778
Investment Rate 2 5.494%
Median Rate 3 5.220%
Low Rate 4 5.130%
Issue Date July 06, 2023
Maturity Date January 04, 2024

 

[Midpack]

TREASURY AUCTION RESULTS
Term and Type of Security 182-Day Bill
CUSIP Number 912797FW2
High Rate 1 5.260%
Allotted at High 72.92%
Price 97.340778
Investment Rate 2 5.494%
Median Rate 3 5.220%
Low Rate 4 5.130%
Issue Date July 06, 2023
Maturity Date January 04, 2024

That’s the price I got.

 

[Marc]

That’s the price I got.

I wonder how I got a cheaper price (97.3261) at Fido?

edited to add:

Fido shows order filled at 97.3408 but current value as 97.3261. I guess everything is good.