Now we're speaking... I read it once (with an open mind), need to read it again (with a skeptical mind!), but I really like their general line of reasoning. Capital preservation rule, prosperity rule, eliminate inflation rule, try to start high and enjoy life while staying adaptive and very cautious about the final outcome, etc, this all seems VERY WELL grounded in common-sense and sensible logic.
What I also really like that it seems to auto-adjust by itself, whatever happens. So to a large extent, it should auto-correct even if the future is way different from what we've seen in the past. Now THAT is very re-assuring.
The only reservation I have is that the 20% threshold triggers and 10% rate adjustments (reduction or increase) seem a tad discontinuous. I would have expected something more incremental.
Now of course, the $1M question is... Did they get it right with their financial model, was it validated enough by peer reviewers, are the conclusions (which seems amazingly rosy) correct? 5% to 6% initial WR, that seems a lot...
Anybody aware of further analysis on this paper? Seems rather ground breaking to me? Or... is it a fake Holy Grail?
Last edited: