V-shaped or U-shaped recovery?

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I predict W shaped recovery
The lows set in this crisis will need to be tested before going onto new highs so definitely W shaped recovery over next two years
 
Last week, a health official predicted the virus cases in the US should peak in about 14 weeks. That's some time in July, and that's the peak. If it's a bell curve, and the down side is the same, it's October to be where we are today.

So what is 6 months of shutdown impact on US economy?
 
So if it's October, and you can become infected again, and a vaccine takes 12 to 18 months, well here we go again! Scarry thought!
 
Masquernom said:
Last week, a health official predicted the virus cases in the US should peak in about 14 weeks. That's some time in July, and that's the peak. If it's a bell curve, and the down side is the same, it's October to be where we are today.

So what is 6 months of shutdown impact on US economy?
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I wonder when I see these predictions of 2, 3, 4 months (or 14 weeks) to peak. China peaked in about 4 weeks. The serious infection rate there took off in mid-January and was clearly flattening out by mid-February.

China imposed authoritarian restrictions to do it, but we are fast approaching that. I'm in Maryland and the Governor just shut down all restaurants, bars, and gyms starting at 5:00 p.m. today.

I think we are looking at an Ariel Narrow U.
 
Masquernom said:
Last week, a health official predicted the virus cases in the US should peak in about 14 weeks. ...
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Weather prediction accuracy deteriorates after a couple of weeks into the future and the mathematics of weather is very well understood.

The mathematics of epidemics was somewhat understood when people lived in villages and didn't travel. Now it's a complete crap shoot.

The only sure thing about predictions like this is that most of them will be wrong. Not unlike predicting the market, actually.
 
"V" as in "Vhy is this happening?"

All the stories about toilet paper, hand sanitizer, masks, etc., convince me that huge numbers of people are not acting rationally; they are panicking. Why should I expect that the insane market swings do not reflect the same irrational thought patterns?

In which case, once the virus New Infections start to decline (I predict within about 10 days*) there will be a Panic Relief overreaction on the upside. I vote V.

* Please don't ask me why I think this. Explaining would require me walking a tightrope of logic stretched over a boiling pit of emotion.**

** I like that metaphor and I'm gonna use it in a novel someday. :)
 
I don’t understand what happens even if we are able to control things in the US. What then? How will the countries that can’t clamp down on this fare? How long do we close our borders to everyone because the infections rage on for months or longer?

Everyone assumes that once we flatten the curve here that all will be well. But if the whole world has it it opens us back up to round 2, or 3.

I really hope I’m wrong and my gut tells me to get out of equities cuz this is going to be bad. But I did that in 2008 and pulled out at the bottom after losing almost 40%. worst mistake ever. Now it’s keeping me from pulling out when I see everything pointing to a prolonged mega-bankruptcy situation for many companies.

Sigh. Everyone do their part and stay safe.
 
Based on the unsuccessful St.Patrick's Day we had around here, I think the Leprechaun will not come out of his hole and have a pint to kick off the new Bull Market until September 1, 2020.
 
It would be interesting to speculate about how this would have played out 25 years ago. What would the natural history of this epidemic have been without the internet, and the current state of medical knowledge and political climate.

I'm thinking a broad U for various reasons but obviously no one knows.
 
Retireby45ish said:
I don’t understand what happens even if we are able to control things in the US. What then? How will the countries that can’t clamp down on this fare? How long do we close our borders to everyone because the infections rage on for months or longer?

Everyone assumes that once we flatten the curve here that all will be well. But if the whole world has it it opens us back up to round 2, or 3.

I really hope I’m wrong and my gut tells me to get out of equities cuz this is going to be bad. But I did that in 2008 and pulled out at the bottom after losing almost 40%. worst mistake ever. Now it’s keeping me from pulling out when I see everything pointing to a prolonged mega-bankruptcy situation for many companies.

Sigh. Everyone do their part and stay safe.
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Don’t sell your stocks! That would be incredibly foolish. And the round 2 and round 3 risk will be gone as soon as ee have a vaccine/cure, which will be sooner than you think.
 
Trying to figure out how to type a square root sign . I think we’re in for a long low plateau- maybe 10 years or more with high inflation to boot
 
On a side note, BreathFree, your user name always gives me pause, especially now that coronavirus is with us. Anyone who gets a severe case of Covid-19 wants to breathe free, not be breath free. :(
 
I have no idea what the stock market will do, but I don't see a quick recovery for the economy. Just getting past the apex of the coronavirus curve does not allow workers to return. It is the very fact that workers are self isolating that we reached the apex.

The communities will still have infected among their ranks. As soon as we ramp up business, the curve will head north again. The only solution I see is immunity through vaccines or herd immunity, or discovering effective treatments that reduce the severity of the disease. Businesses, governments, and workers are in for a long period of low revenue and most likely more bailouts and stimulus to make it to the end of the pandemic.

On the hopeful side, maybe Summer will have an effect or current pharmaceuticals prove effective as treatment.
 
What I worry about, in todays 24 hour news cycle, is that the next strain of flu which likely causes much more death, will be treated the same as this virus and the market is an L with no recovery within sight.
 
REWahoo said:
On a side note, BreathFree, your user name always gives me pause, especially now that coronavirus is with us. Anyone who gets a severe case of Covid-19 wants to breathe free, not be breath free. :(
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Ha! I hadn't considered the relevance of my user name in the context of current events. It came from I book I was reading at the time but does seem a bit morbid in the midst of the coronavirus. I would be happy to add an 'e' for the comfort of everyone involved. :)
 
BreathFree said:
Ha! I hadn't considered the relevance of my user name in the context of current events. It came from I book I was reading at the time but does seem a bit morbid in the midst of the coronavirus. I would be happy to add an 'e' for the comfort of everyone involved. :)
Click to expand...

If you PM one of the mods I'm sure they will be happy to help you.
 
This virus is old news next year. There will be a vaccine and people will go back to buying luxuries.

SpaceX will continue to astound and deliver a complete network of LEO satellites giving everyone gigabit internet speeds anywhere on earth for low cost. People in a hut in some jungle will realize they can now order a 48 inch TV on Amazon.

Computers will get faster, AI will get smarter.

V shaped recovery.
 
Like a rocket rising after launch, the recovery will start slowly and pick up speed.

This quarantine is simply a way to buy time for the medical professionals to figure out how to deal with CV19 until we get a vaccine. Those 3+ million newly unemployed people are paying with their economic lives to buy us that time.

Things will start to normalize when people feel that if they get CV19, the medical system has the resources to help them recover quickly. Herd immunity and a more robust ability to treat people will allow us to get back to normal. But, CV19 will be with us through most of 2021 I would think. What won't be with us, I hope, is the current level of fear we have.

My 2¢. I have no particular knowledge or expertise.
 
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