Vaccine Trials

[Brat]

I listened to the Moderna executive interview this morning. I heard that none of the folks who got the vaccine and caught Covid19 had severe cases.

I had been waiting for the J&J vaccine but testing is just started, so I read. If I am offered either of the approved vaccines I will not wait. The J&J vaccine is evidently a different technology and is easier to store and administer. That being the case, assuming we will need a vaccine annually, I will choose that for a 'booster'.

 

[easysurfer]

Back to vaccines: As much as big Pharma charges us US citizens too much, sometimes for not enough (tweaking a med to prolong a patent, for example), it is a relief to see such good preliminary results.

It feels like we can see a light at the end of a long tunnel. It’s been several months since I have felt this way. I intend to enjoy it.

Yes, the recent vaccine news is really good news.

Now I'm having second thoughts whether I needed to order a big box of 96 rolls of toilet paper. That's a good thing to have second thoughts about.

Back to the vaccine ... Someone who works as a nurse mentioned to me that her sister (who is also a nurse) said that by Dec 1, her sister will be offered to take the vaccine if she wants it.

Yes, there is light ... .

 

[harllee]

Regarding the Covid vaccines under development--will people with autoimmune diseases (like DH who has psoriatic arthritis and is on Humira) be able to take these vaccines? There are some vaccines out there made with live viruses he cannot take. Thanks.

 

[gerntz]

No, people who've been vaccinated are still supposed to follow the same precautions as everyone else. The test subjects are supposed to be a cross section of the population by age, race, gender, etc. Some have frontline jobs where they normally experience high exposure, some are leading more isolated lives. Some are carefully following mask mandates, others are not. They are divided into two groups and half get the vaccine while the other half get a placebo. Nobody receiving or giving the shots knows which ones are placebos and which ones are vaccines.

The theory is that if the vaccine is 0% effective, then once there have been 100 cases among the test subjects, ~50 will be in the placebo group and ~50 will be in the vaccine group. These people were randomly assigned to groups and the groups are large enough that the number of people exposed in each group should be about the same. Since they're saying that the test so far shows 94% effectiveness, that means that among the first 100 cases, 3 were in the vaccine group and 97 were in the placebo group. If you expected 50 people to get sick, and only 3 actually got sick, you prevented 94% of the infections.

Thank you. Good description.

I'd take that in a heartbeat.

 

[gerntz]

If this is true I don't have a ton of confidence in the effective number.

Well, if 90-94% isn't a ton, I agree.

 

[gerntz]

I am asking why you would think that something that is injected into the body will be more tolerable to people who won't even wear a mask which is an act that requires no such injection of a foreign substance into one's body?

1. Injection is a 1-2x thing (per year?) vs. multi - x/day for mask plus it's not a nuisance all day long.
2. Based on the test results reported, the injection appears way more effective than a mere mask.

 

[Mark1]

I had been waiting for the J&J vaccine but testing is just started, so I read. If I am offered either of the approved vaccines I will not wait. The J&J vaccine is evidently a different technology and is easier to store and administer. That being the case, assuming we will need a vaccine annually, I will choose that for a 'booster'.

I'm no expert on vaccines, but I suspect that boosters will only work on the specific vendor's vaccine. For example, let's say the first vendor's mRNA tells you body to make a section of the virus protein spike (say the first 1/3 of it), whereas the other mRNA approach tells your body to make the mid-section of the protein spike. Both vaccines work fine for making your body produce antibodies to attack the spike, however, in this case, the second mRNA is not really a booster for the first one as your body has never made this section of the spike (?).

 

[ivinsfan]

Well, if 90-94% isn't a ton, I agree.

bigger sample size might be nice..

 

[gerntz]

bigger sample size might be nice..

Sure. But it is what it is today & I take it as a very positive sign & do not wince that there isn't more of it sooner.

 

[Alan]

bigger sample size might be nice..

Tens of thousands were vaccinated and in normal circumstances I believe they would have waited until about 150 to 200 had been infected with Covid before unblinding the study. If the efficacy had been half what it appears to be then they would have hit the number of infected they expected sooner than this.

 

[RetireBy90]

Somebody help me understand. They say they vaccine is 90% effective. Yet from what I understand it's considered unethical to just expose someone to the virus so they don't do that. Basically they just let people go about their lives and after a time they see how many got the virus. If 10% of the people got the virus it's considered 90% effective? But what if those people happen to have just been very careful? Do they send them out with instructions not to wear masks and take other precautions? Are these people all working, going to restaurants, etc? I bet if the people on this forum were tested we'd likely have a better than 90% effective rate if none of us got any vaccine just because it seems the majority here are taking more precautions then the population at large.
The US just hit 11 million cases of covid. Let's say it's really 3 times that to account for people who never got tested. That's 33 million cases or about 10% of the population for an "effective rate" of 90% for NO vaccine.
I'm just trying to understand the testing protocol of the vaccine manufacturers. Is 90% really anywhere near 90%? Now if they actually exposed the test subjects to the virus and only 10 % got the virus then I could see where 90% wouls be a true number. What am I missing?

The Moderna CEO talked about this, they have the 2 groups go about life after receiving placebo or vaccine. They then track them with testing and monitoring.

The analysis evaluated 95 confirmed Covid-19 infections among the trial’s 30,000 participants. Moderna, which developed its vaccine in collaboration with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said 90 cases of Covid-19 were observed in the placebo group versus five cases observed in the group that received its two-dose vaccine. That resulted in an estimated vaccine efficacy of 94.5%, it said.

 

[MissMolly]

Regarding the Covid vaccines under development--will people with autoimmune diseases (like DH who has psoriatic arthritis and is on Humira) be able to take these vaccines? There are some vaccines out there made with live viruses he cannot take. Thanks.

The Pfizer vaccine is not a live virus and I would assume the Moderna one is also not a live virus. I am on Humira and will not hesitate to take this vaccination when I am able to do so.

 

[harllee]

The Pfizer vaccine is not a live virus and I would assume the Moderna one is also not a live virus. I am on Humira and will not hesitate to take this vaccination when I am able to do so.

Thank you Miss Molly. We new hoping DH will be among the first groups eligible to get the vaccine and DH will definitely get the vaccine as soon as his doctor recommends.

 

[Chuckanut]

Peter Attia #137 - Vaccines with Paul Offit

The link below will take you to Peter Attia's latest interview with a doctor who is very knowledgeable about vaccines. Plenty of good stuff along with an abundant amount of medical terms.

https://peterattiamd.com/pauloffit/

He describes the phases of testing.

At about 32 minutes he discusses the latest attempts to develop a corona virus vaccine and Operation Warp Speed.

We discuss:

• How Paul’s experience as a child in a chronic care hospital as child informed his path in pediatrics and vaccine development (3:30);
• Addressing the anti-vaccination sentiment and explaining the fraudulent origins of the anti-vaccination movement (8:00);
• Lessons and insights from 26 years studying rotavirus and creating a successful rotavirus vaccine (17:00);
• Developing a new vaccine: the different phases of clinical trials, overall timeline, and financial costs (27:15);
• Operation Warp Speed: the expedited process of creating a coronavirus vaccine (32:30);
• Various vaccine strategies—RNA, DNA, virus vector—and the challenges associated (35:00);
• The Moderna and Pfizer mRNA vaccines: strategy, timeline, and Emergency Use Authorization (41:15);
• Paul’s confidence level in the safety of the first coronavirus vaccines (48:30);
• The risks associated with different types of vaccines, and updates on the Johnson & Johnson and Astrazeneca coronavirus vaccines (52:15);
• What we know about the coronavirus vaccines approved in Russia and China (55:45);
• The latest on the Merck coronavirus vaccine (57:15);
• The recombinant/purified protein vaccine approach for coronavirus—big players, risks, and the best vaccine for the elderly (57:45);
• Attenuated and inactivated vaccine strategies for coronavirus (1:02:00);
• The genetic drift of SARS-CoV-2: Impacts for protection and vaccine development (1:02:30);
• Paul’s take on the hypothesis that a previous coronavirus infection offers protection against the novel COVID-19 (1:06:45);
• Addressing the concern that antibodies fade over time (1:09:15);
• Blood type and protective against coronavirus (1:13:00);
• Distribution: the challenge of prioritizing the limited doses of vaccines after approval (1:13:15);
• Paul’s perspective on COVID-19 vaccine safety (1:16:15);
• Considerations regarding vaccinating children for coronavirus and the role of a fever immune response (1:21:45);
• Why vaccine development can be challenging and risks of current COVID-19 strategies (1:29:45); and

 

[explanade]

Regarding the Covid vaccines under development--will people with autoimmune diseases (like DH who has psoriatic arthritis and is on Humira) be able to take these vaccines? There are some vaccines out there made with live viruses he cannot take. Thanks.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html


There are all kinds of vaccine platforms being used, including weakened measles and influenza viruses to deliver the payload.

Among the early vaccines using viruses, the Astra Zeneca uses a chimpanzee virus and the J&J uses an adenovirus, as do several other candidates, including ones in Russia and China.

The questions about some of these adenovirus vaccines are that after the first shot, body may grow immune to the adenovirus so even though they are targeting the spike protein of the coronavirus, these adenovirus vector vaccines may lose effectiveness after the first shot.

 

[sengsational]

This is the page I go to for the list of vaccines:

https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

There are 50 items in the list, and 32 different mechanisms. I'm sure there's a lot of overlap.

Adenovirus-based vaccine, DNA vaccine, DNA vaccine (plasmid), Gene-based vaccine, gp96-based vaccine, Ii-Key peptide COVID-19 vaccine, Inactivated vaccine, Inactivated vaccine , Inactivated vaccine (formalin with alum adjuvant), Intranasal vaccine, Live-attenuated vaccine, Measles vector vaccine, Monovalent oral vaccine (bifidobacteria), Monovalent recombinant protein vaccine, mRNA lipid nanoparticle (mRNA-LNP) vaccine, mRNA-based vaccine, Multitope peptide-based vaccine, Nanoparticle vaccine, Non-replicating viral vector, Peptide vaccine, Plant-based adjuvant vaccine , Protein subunit vaccine, Recombinant protein subunit vaccine (delivered through microneedle array), Recombinant vaccine, Recombinant vaccine (adenovirus type 5 vector), Recombinant vaccine (vesicular stomatitis virus), Replicating viral vector, Replication-deficient viral vector vaccine (adenovirus from chimpanzees), RNA vaccine , Self-amplifying RNA vaccine, Self-assembling vaccine, Self-replicating RNA vaccine

The screen shot below is the from a search of "mRNA"

 

[kyzymurgist]

From my perspective, these results are even better than claimed. The mRNA vaccines have distinctive side effects that functionally unblind the subjects.

It is reasonable to expect those that realize they have been vaccinated to be less careful than those with no side effects. I would.

Also there is the difference in severity. Not many details yet but it appears that those testing positive after vaccination are asymptomatic or at least have mild symptoms.

Sign me up. Unless I already have antibodies.

 

[CaptTom]

The vaccines themselves are good news.

For something like the measles, scientists say 90-95% of people have to be immunized.https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-how-does-it-work. For less contagious like polio, 80% to 85%.

I agree the vaccines are good news. They are good news because I will have a much, much lower risk of getting infected after I get my dose.

Likewise, everyone else I care about, and everyone else who cares about their own health, will get one. At around 90% effective, we won't have to wait around for herd immunity to protect us.

I don't want to say anything negative about those who don't want to get one, so let's just say they will have a choice, and I won't have to worry about their choice affecting me or my loved ones. We all win.

 

[RetireBy90]

I agree the vaccines are good news. They are good news because I will have a much, much lower risk of getting infected after I get my dose.

Likewise, everyone else I care about, and everyone else who cares about their own health, will get one. At around 90% effective, we won't have to wait around for herd immunity to protect us.

I don't want to say anything negative about those who don't want to get one, so let's just say they will have a choice, and I won't have to worry about their choice affecting me or my loved ones. We all win.

I couldn't agree more. I feel bad for those that don't want to take a vaccine as they could get infected from others anytime. With the asymptomatic or mild nature for such a large portion of those that get infected you don't know if you are in danger or not.

The treatments that are available or are being developed/tested another 6 months could make this much less dangerous for those vulnerable. However, I plan to get a vaccine as soon as it is available for me. If others don't it doesn't put me in danger. I hope many many others also get vaccine but if they don't I can continue on with a more normal life and not worry if that person next to me is infectious right now.

 

[dixonge]

GOOD NEWS!: b/c people are adaptable.
They learn and are constantly evolving. When humans see the relevance to themselves personally (eg. self or a loved one adversely affected), they take appropriate action (eg. heeding cancer screening, or avoiding phishing emails, or complying with a vax). In those isolated communities that refuse measles vax, there’s nothing like a tiny outbreak to motivate previously non-vax-ers.

I love your faith in humanity. I've seen where one or two anti-vaxxers had some second thoughts, but I think the movement is still strong. Unfortunately, I think you may be a tad optimistic. These quotes are from a South Dakota nurse Jodi Doering, which has made her rather famous on Twitter lately...


"I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that <snip> is going to ruin the USA. All while gasping for breath on 100% Vapotherm. They tell you there must be another reason they are sick. They call you names and ask why you have to wear all that “stuff” because they don’t have COViD because it’s not real. Yes. This really happens. And I can’t stop thinking about it. These people really think this isn’t going to happen to them. And then they stop yelling at you when they get intubated. It’s like a ****ing horror movie that never ends. There’s no credits that roll. You just go back and do it all over again. Which is what I will do for the next three nights. But tonight. It’s me and Cliff and Oreo ice cream. And how ironic I have on my “home” Hoodie. The South Dakota I love seems far away right now."

 

[Amethyst]

We feel the same as you. Moreover, getting vaccinated will not stop us wearing masks. We were wearing them when one still got funny looks for doing so, and we'll wear them until the doctors say they are no longer needed.

I couldn't agree more. I feel bad for those that don't want to take a vaccine as they could get infected from others anytime. With the asymptomatic or mild nature for such a large portion of those that get infected you don't know if you are in danger or not.

The treatments that are available or are being developed/tested another 6 months could make this much less dangerous for those vulnerable. However, I plan to get a vaccine as soon as it is available for me. If others don't it doesn't put me in danger. I hope many many others also get vaccine but if they don't I can continue on with a more normal life and not worry if that person next to me is infectious right now.

 

[sengsational]

From my perspective, these results are even better than claimed. The mRNA vaccines have distinctive side effects that functionally unblind the subjects.

It is reasonable to expect those that realize they have been vaccinated to be less careful than those with no side effects. I would.

I'm usually pretty skeptical about study methods, but in this case, I'm thinking we got a good result. Before the data was released, nobody knew if the vaccines would be effective, so teasing out side effects that might indicate you didn't get the placebo wouldn't give you licence to be reckless, right? Even if you "knew" you got the real thing, you couldn't know if it would protect you. I'm convinced that in the short term at least, there's an amazingly high effectiveness. I'm very impressed by this mRNA technology...I didn't think it would work, and it blows me away this good news about it

 

[ivinsfan]

I love your faith in humanity. I've seen where one or two anti-vaxxers had some second thoughts, but I think the movement is still strong. Unfortunately, I think you may be a tad optimistic. These quotes are from a South Dakota nurse Jodi Doering, which has made her rather famous on Twitter lately...


"I have a night off from the hospital. As I’m on my couch with my dog I can’t help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don’t believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that <snip> is going to ruin the USA. All while gasping for breath on 100% Vapotherm. They tell you there must be another reason they are sick. They call you names and ask why you have to wear all that “stuff” because they don’t have COViD because it’s not real. Yes. This really happens. And I can’t stop thinking about it. These people really think this isn’t going to happen to them. And then they stop yelling at you when they get intubated. It’s like a ****ing horror movie that never ends. There’s no credits that roll. You just go back and do it all over again. Which is what I will do for the next three nights. But tonight. It’s me and Cliff and Oreo ice cream. And how ironic I have on my “home” Hoodie. The South Dakota I love seems far away right now."

I detect a bit of embellishment here....I'll leave it at that..

 

[Chuckanut]

I detect a bit of embellishment here....I'll leave it at that..

I don't agree with the people who think CV is a big hoax. But, I do take such stories with a big grain of salt unless I know the person, or I know a trusted person who knows the person. We get enough garbage from the modern news media that is based upon unsubstantiated stories, anonymous sources, hysterical exaggeration, and people who literally don't know what they are talking about.

Social media is a poor choice for facts. (Yes, even this illustrious group - Trust but Verify). I cringe every time a local TV station tells us about their latest Twitter Poll on some controversial subject. Really? A Twitter poll?

Back to the topic of this thread:

FWIW, I have a trusted relative who works in a hospital. She reports that CV cases have been rising for two weeks, but so far they can handle it.

The local medical center in my area released it's latest CV report yesterday. Two weeks ago they had 5 CV cases in the hospital. As of yesterday they had 24.

Earlier I posted Petter Attia's interview with a doctor who knows a lot about vaccines and how they are tested. If you can tolerate all the medical jargon, I think it's worth a listen. #264

 

[REWahoo]

I don't agree with the people who think CV is a big hoax. But, I do take such stories with a big grain of salt unless I know the person, or I know a trusted person who knows the person. We get enough garbage from the modern news media that is based upon unsubstantiated stories, anonymous sources, hysterical exaggeration, and people who literally don't know what they are talking about.

FWIW, here is a link to a video interview with the nurse quoted above: Nurse: Some patients who test positive refuse to believe they have Covid-19

Truth or Fiction? Only The Shadow Knows