Lsbcal
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Below is the 5 year TIPS rates. The historical average real rates for 5 year nominal Treasuries is about 2.3% (as per Swedroe) and TIPS will be below this by about the inflation rate plus a premium for taking inflation risk. We see that the last 10 years have seen a decline in the real rates and quite a dramatic decline over the last 3 years.I think intermediate gov bonds have negative real yield. The .3% for a broad portfolio doesn't seem off the mark to me.
What could happen (among an infinite set of possibilities) is that we get back up to normal real rates in 3 to 5 years. Then we could even overshoot and go to fairly high real rates. The 1983-2000 period was a time of high real rates and we had a fairly good economy in those years. So there is a precedent.
None of us knows what the future will bring. Much of the SWR calculations (including Pfau's I think) assume a constant withdrawal rate. Many of us will adjust withdrawals to mitigate declining portfolios and as others have pointed out, that is not generally in those SWR models.
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