No data?

You clearly didnt read the seeking alpha article, then. You can download the entire dataset used for the study and run it yourself. Linked from article.

**snipped to keep this short**

In the 3 links provided, 2 were forums and one was a blog. I hardly call those reputable sources.

Back to math class for you.

I'd watch the person you question without knowing more.

Consider 3 sets of 6 data points, representing returns of a fictitious investment.

There is a simple mathematical reason why a 2X fund will NOT match the yearly returns even though each day it met it's objective. Exponential math and volatility.

1%

2%

3%

-3%

-2%

-1%

if these were returns of an investment, the end result would be a .14% loss if taken straight up. If each return was *2, then the loss would be .55% (4 times bigger).

The look at more negative situation

-1%

-2%

-1%

-3%

-1%

-5%

first loses 12%, other loses 24%. Because returns were on same side of zero, the 2X leverage held true.

repeat on plus side

5%

1%

3%

1%

2%

1%

the first gains 13.66%, the leverage fund actually is more than double at 28.69%.

There are 3 key forces working on math side

1) exponential functions do not mean 2X is 2X. The same way as an ice skater reduces their radius 1/2 when spinning, it increases their speed 4X. That is math and physics.

2) We cannot predict returns. If enough data points exist, the 2X number will close to what a person sees if invested in the leveraged fund.

3) The sequence of returns matters. If someone has $100 and loses 25%, they need a 33% gain to break even. If same person has a 33% return and then the 25% loss, they are ahead.

A position like this (1/3 aggressive and 2/3 diversified) requires constant rebalancing (I am thinking 4X per year, maybe 12, maybe 24). I need the stomach for the risk. If market generally goes upward, this strategy will work well, if in a volatile market, I need enough cash to keep rebalancing in and the brain to know that when the bull comes, I will get better returns.

24X rebalancing is because I get paid 24X per year, and this is my 401k at work (in a self directed brokerage).