What age will you die?

[DangerMouse]

I have run our numbers through the Life Expectancy calculator on various websites and have concluded they are a crock of crap.

Mine always comes out as me living to 93 which seems unlikely. Parents died at 58 and 69 of cancer, 3 of 4 grandparents died before 69. Heart disease, diabetes and cancer is rife throughout my family on both sides.

On the other hand DH's life expectancy comes in at 85, his parents died at 85 and the other is 88 going strong. Grandmother lived to 95, no history of any disease.

I'm thinking mid 80s for both of us.

 

[Mulligan]

I certainly understand most peoples reasons to over estimate their life expectancy, because the fear of running out of money would be a scary thought. I imagine that most of us envision ourselves alive at 85, with the only difference being a few more wrinkles. Unfortunately for the majority of people that is not the way it's going to play out. No harm in being an optimist though!

 

[GregLee]

So many people plan to live to their 90s and beyond! This matches with the statistics showing most people believe themselves to be a better-than-average driver, and investor too.

I often see this sort of thing mentioned with the apparent implication that it is self-contradictory. But it isn't, really. The people who devise some plan involving their longevity are not a random population sampling, and no more the people who formulate specific opinions about their driving or investing skills.

 

[Midpack]

By that point, I'll probably only be "half-fast" so it will take me twice as long to accomplish hobby projects...thus using half the money. R

 

[Midpack]

Other than long-term care, I do not see what a typical 80-yr old would need money for. One only needs to walk through a nursing home or a convalescent home to see what its occupants long for: to regain the ability to walk, even if it means using a walker, to be able to make it to the toilet by oneself, to be able to reach and scratch that itchy spot. Travel, fancy homes, cars, and clothes have been purged off their minds.

Good luck if you're wrong when you're 80 though, and of course that's the rub, and the reason many plan to their mid-90's or beyond.

My parents didn't do anything special to preserve themselves when they were younger, but they're both 89 years old and maintained a 3400 sqft house entirely themselves. They still live in that house and begrudgingly hired someone to cut the grass about 2 years ago and a once/week maid about a year ago. They still do everything else for themselves, albeit slower.

Life is uncertain, at every age...

 

[GregLee]

Some are deciding that large amounts of money will not be important to them in old age, because large amounts of money are not very useful to very old people now. Well, maybe. But what if, say 20-30 years from now, methods of extending life for a decade or so are developed; however, the treatments cost 500k per person plus more for additional maintenance treatments? What will you do then?

 

[DFA]

Some are deciding that large amounts of money will not be important to them in old age, because large amounts of money are not very useful to very old people now. Well, maybe. But what if, say 20-30 years from now, methods of extending life for a decade or so are developed; however, the treatments cost 500k per person plus more for additional maintenance treatments? What will you do then?

Put it on my Visa and hope to pay it off over time maybe.

 

[Danmar]

Planning on 100, every decade the maximum life expectancy goes up by about a year, so I think that is reasonable for my young age. My great grandfather lived to 102, and both my grandfathers into their late 80s, despite one falling off a high ladder three separate times in his 80s, and the other having a chronic depression disorder for a long time.

Interesting point about the historical nature of life expectancy tables. Nobody really knows the actual life expectancy of a given age cohort until they all die.

Another point: if so many people plan for very long lives but don't expect to actually make that age, wouldn't it make more sense to buy an annuity and spend more without worries?

 

[NW-Bound]

That makes your father-in-law 93. Was he like the typical 80-yr old you mention?

I do not know how to compare the nursing home occupants' physical conditions, other than seeing that many have lost most of their mobility. Some are bedridden. Many are like my FIL, who could not do anything himself, and has problems even turning in bed. He needs help to get out of bed, and to be seated in a wheelchair. At first, he was able to feed himself with a spoon. Now it becomes a difficult task to even bend the elbow.

A man in the bed next to him was a former soldier, a colonel, not even 80, I don't think. He was a tall man, though not fat. He was bedridden, and could not get up by himself. When the little woman nurses helped him by pullling on his arms, my wife said he cried murder: "You are dislocating my shoulders!". It's sad to see a former soldier turned into that debilitating condition.

Good luck if you're wrong when you're 80 though, and of course that's the rub, and the reason many plan to their mid-90's or beyond...

As I said in an earlier post, I will keep my WR low. I will not spend all my money, because I want to die rich. My intention is that money will not be a problem. But there are things that money cannot buy.

I will try to maintain my health. But I am not optimistic that I will live that long, or if I do, that the quality of life is like what I want.

Some are deciding that large amounts of money will not be important to them in old age, because large amounts of money are not very useful to very old people now. Well, maybe. But what if, say 20-30 years from now, methods of extending life for a decade or so are developed; however, the treatments cost 500k per person plus more for additional maintenance treatments? What will you do then?

What if it costs $1M, and you are still short? Or if they can keep you alive, but it is like in the movie Death becomes her?

And by the way, REW in an old thread has posted an on-line longevity estimator. It's here.

I tried the first estimator. It says my life expectancy is 93. But I do not rejoice. I am willing to trade that age for a fatal stroke or a heart attack at, say, 85 or even 80, if living to 90 turns me into one of the nursing home occupants I have seen.

 

[Khan]

Given all my inherited crap, the thought of 80 is horrifying.

The deterioration has begun and there shall be no one to take care of me.

 

[Rustic23]

Let's see at 93 my in laws were taking a trip down the Rein river in Germany. At 85 they were taking a train trip across Europe slinging bags on and off at every stop. So I don't know what you think you will be spending money on at 80, but I am sure DW and I have lots of plans. Being almost 68 and knowing 80 is only 12 years away, I don't plan of cutting my spending back anytime soon. However, as they say, time will tell.

 

[Mulligan]

Let's see at 93 my in laws were taking a trip down the Rein river in Germany. At 85 they were taking a train trip across Europe slinging bags on and off at every stop. So I don't know what you think you will be spending money on at 80, but I am sure DW and I have lots of plans. Being almost 68 and knowing 80 is only 12 years away, I don't plan of cutting my spending back anytime soon. However, as they say, time will tell.

No such thing as an average person I know, but I was reading my Smart Money magazine today and they quoted a mildly interesting stat. Average person ages 55-64 spent a little over $52000 a year. Average person aged 65-74 spent about $43000. What they could not conclude was the reason for this. Whether it was by choice, or because they couldn't afford to spend more.

 

[NW-Bound]

Let's see at 93 my in laws were taking a trip down the Rein river in Germany. At 85 they were taking a train trip across Europe slinging bags on and off at every stop. So I don't know what you think you will be spending money on at 80...

Some of us may have to pay for someone to push our wheelchairs around, if we want to travel.

And talk about Eurail, it is impressive for an 85-yr old couple to climb on and off the train. Come to think of it, perhaps I did not know where to look, but I never spotted elevators or some kind of platform to help elderly and invalid people board these trains. Yet, trains are the most used mode of transportation there. What did I miss?

No such thing as an average person I know, but I was reading my Smart Money magazine today and they quoted a mildly interesting stat. Average person ages 55-64 spent a little over $52000 a year. Average person aged 65-74 spent about $43000. What they could not conclude was the reason for this. Whether it was by choice, or because they couldn't afford to spend more.

My mother no longer spends a lot of money on travel. But, she would never pass up an opportunity to get more jewelry and clothes when she was convinced she was getting a good deal. And she is even older than 74.

 

[Mulligan]

Some of us may have to pay for someone to push our wheelchairs around, if we want to travel.

And talk about Eurail, it is impressive for an 85-yr old couple to climb on and off the train. Come to think of it, perhaps I did not know where to look, but I never spotted elevators or some kind of platform to help elderly and invalid people board these trains. Yet, trains are the most used mode of transportation there. What did I miss?

My mother no longer spends a lot of money on travel. But, she would never pass up an opportunity to get more jewelry and clothes when she was convinced she was getting a good deal. And she is even older than 74.

I guess you just never know. I was watching the STL Cardinal opening baseball ceremony today and former manager Red Scheondeist who is about 90 hoped right off the back of the truck and walked around the infield like a 50 year old unassisted , while Stan Musial who is about the same age, also attended, but hasn't walked in a couple of years.

 

[MDJO]

If you live in the United States, death is optional....so I would plan on forever

 

[kyounge1956]

I'm 55 now, plan to retire in a little over two years, and use a lifespan of 100 for planning purposes. Both of my parents are still living in their mid-80's, and planning to fly cross-country to my niece's college graduation in May. My mom's two sisters are 87 & 89, and my dad's cousin died last year at age 100, so there is longevity in my family on both sides. I think it's likely enough that I'll reach the century mark that I don't want to assume otherwise. I'd rather have the money and not need it, than need it and not have it!

My parents and aunts have definitely slowed down since turning 80, but all still live in their homes of many years (my two aunts have a condo together), although I think my oldest aunt no longer drives and for the last few years my parents have been using a yard service and have a cleaning lady who comes periodically.

The descriptions of elders in such poor shape in nursing homes make me wonder: did they end up in the nursing home because they became decrepit—or did they become decrepit because they were in the nursing home?

 

[kyounge1956]

(snip)Another point: if so many people plan for very long lives but don't expect to actually make that age, wouldn't it make more sense to buy an annuity and spend more without worries?

I'm still in the process of developing my investment policy statement, but it's probably going to include put as much as possible of my finances on autopilot as I age, including gradual conversion of most or all of my portfolio to annnuities by maybe age 80 or 85. A recent thread at bogleheads.org disscussed a WSJ article about the biggest financial challenges faced by aging investors. Danger of losing one's capacity to manage a portfolio competently is certainly on that list, although omitted from the article.

 

[Alan]

And talk about Eurail, it is impressive for an 85-yr old couple to climb on and off the train. Come to think of it, perhaps I did not know where to look, but I never spotted elevators or some kind of platform to help elderly and invalid people board these trains. Yet, trains are the most used mode of transportation there. What did I miss?.

I can't speak for all Europe but would be surprised if it is different from the UK which is very accommodating for the disabled for all public transport, with elevators available for crossing platforms. The trains all had ramps available that a guard would put out when he saw a wheelchair, or on request for a person with walking difficulties. We traveled a lot last summer by rail with heavy suitcases, and our main complaint was that it was sometimes a heck of a walk to get to the elevator or bridge with ramp to cross over platforms.

The buses in major cities used to "kneel down" to allow wheel chairs or those with difficulty walking to get on board. In Toronto last Fall we commuted in by light rail several times from where we were staying in Whitby, and then by bus and underground around the city. We were with my wife's brother who is disabled, walks with difficulty but can't manage stairs. All the public transport there was very well suited to the disabled and the platforms were labeled as to where the carriages with ramp access would be when the trains arrived.

 

[NW-Bound]

I can't speak for all Europe but would be surprised if it is different from the UK which is very accommodating for the disabled for all public transport...

There might very well be facilities which were not obvious to us as we did not need them and did not look for them. In more rural settings, perhaps the train conductors would know to provide assistance to people who need help.

Would not make a difference to me though. When I need such help, I will just be staying home watching the Travel channel, but I suspect I will have lost interest in exotic places at that point.

The descriptions of elders in such poor shape in nursing homes make me wonder: did they end up in the nursing home because they became decrepit—or did they become decrepit because they were in the nursing home?

People do not come into nursing homes until they absolutely have too. And because it's old age and not a sickness that can be cured, they of course do not get better.

There are bad nursing homes, I am sure. But unless one is a hectomillionaire, or at least a decamillionaire, with an orderly at beck and call 24 hours a day, one cannot expect the diapers to get changed immediately, or the care level the same as one would give a disabled child.

 

[Alan]

There might very well be facilities which were not obvious to us as we did not need them and did not look for them. In more rural settings, perhaps the train conductors would know to provide assistance to people who need help.

That's probably the case.

Apart from BIL today, both MIL and my own mother were disabled for a good few years with arthritic joints so we became accustomed to looking for such facilities. The London Underground was about the worst in our experience for disabled access, but on the surface the buses and taxi's are very good so I guess they just figured there were other options.

 

[kcowan]

Mine always comes out as me living to 93 which seems unlikely. Parents died at 58 and 69 of cancer, 3 of 4 grandparents died before 69. Heart disease, diabetes and cancer is rife throughout my family on both sides...

I'm thinking mid 80s for both of us.

Wow you must have a great deal of faith...

Some are deciding that large amounts of money will not be important to them in old age, because large amounts of money are not very useful to very old people now. Well, maybe. But what if, say 20-30 years from now, methods of extending life for a decade or so are developed; however, the treatments cost 500k per person plus more for additional maintenance treatments? What will you do then?

I guess I would consider it to be like the maintenance charges for a yacht: "Interesting but not relevant!"

I tried the first estimator. It says my life expectancy is 93. But I do not rejoice. I am willing to trade that age for a fatal stroke or a heart attack at, say, 85 or even 80, if living to 90 turns me into one of the nursing home occupants I have seen.

The problem is that you will not have a choice. Your only choice is to plan to live to 100 (since 93 is the median)!

 

[NW-Bound]

The problem is that you will not have a choice.

Exactly. Hence, my fear of having to linger with a low quality of life.

Your only choice is to plan to live to 100 (since 93 is the median)!

I am hoping that in the decades ahead, society will recognize that what Dr. Kevorkian did was not an immoral thing, and in fact a very humane act, and I will have that as a choice, one of the last resort of course.

And by the way, I tried the 2nd longevity estimator in the REW's old thread that I mentioned. This one said I will croak at something like 80, a big difference with the 1st one that said 93. Go figure.

 

[packrat44]

I plan to live until my money runs out. So far its working.

 

[kcowan]

I am hoping that in the decades ahead, society will recognize that what Dr. Kevorkian did was not an immoral thing, and in fact a very humane act, and I will have that as a choice, one of the last resort of course...

My Dada lived to be 95 but he said that he would have preferred to go at 90 even though he was healthy. His life must have been pretty bad but we did not see it. I suppose it was loneliness since all his friends were dead. He seemed to have had enough of us...