What are your predictions to real estate market?

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The family moving in to the new house next door are selling their current home. Had an offer above asking price in March/April, then the buyers backed out due to job losses for both buyers. This family had to scramble and get their house re-staged and back on the market.

To make matters worse, both parents and one of the two kids were sick on the days when they needed to evacuate the house in order for it to be shown (never mind the four pets they needed to also gather up and take with them). Family was very sick, from the sound of it. None tested positive for COVID-19 (they were that ill), nor did they test positive for any known flu.

They currently have an offer and close date three weeks from now, with a backup offer. Going to be a very nerve-racking three weeks for this family. I suspect a lot of homeowners are going to see sales cancelled because of job and income losses. Since many house sales are contingent on other sales, there are several ways for these real estate deals to go south.
 
Real Estate is a long term investment and the best time to buy is when the market is depressed. It's all about location, location, location. The real estate prices fall over several years before recovering. We bought our home in Southern California at the end of 1995 about 18 months after the Northridge earthquake at a time when prices were extremely depressed. We closed the purchase in March 1996 (it was a new house) and it has more than quadrupled since then. California has been going through a labor pool shift for the past 25 years. Lower income working class families are moving out and are being replaced by more affluent professionals. This is why prices remain high and over the long run, this trend will continue. Keep in mind California is the 5th largest economy in the world and has an industrial base that supports highly skilled work force. The weather is also another attraction. After the 2008/2009 financial crisis, we were looking for properties around the Pacific Palisades and Santa Monica but prices were down but were still relatively high. Those properties are even higher today.

My generous father-in-law gave us a home in Switzerland just outside Lausanne in the late 90's. It's well located in a very affluent area with great views of Lake Geneva and the French Alps. We spent several hundred thousand over the years renovating this home which was built in the 50's. We saw the potential and decided it was worth the investment. It is currently worth 5 times the value of our home in Southern California and due to the limited supply of homes and the location of this home, it will continue to climb in value. My father-in-law turned 84 today and has 94 rental apartment units. He never invested in the stock market and has a great income stream that allows him to stay at home with full-time staff to take care of him and my mother-in-law. Plus his active involvement in his properties keeps his mind active and in good health. He certainly learned to play monopoly well.

In March 2011, I was still working and on a business trip in South East Florida, and just happened to see how far real estate prices had crashed in Florida. They were literally down to 1981 (Miami Vice days) prices in many coastal areas. I convinced my wife that we should buy property in South East Florida. We flew back to Florida in June 2011 with two other couples from Southern California that we knew well and spent two weeks looking at coastal properties in Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami Dade counties. We made all cash offers on three properties. All were modern upscale high rise condos located in Downtown West Palm Beach and Downtown Miami. Two fell through and one was accepted by the bank. Contrary to comments made about high transaction costs for real estate, it all depends on the location and type of transaction. In Palm Beach Country, the seller pays most of the closing costs. Since it was an all cash transaction, our closing costs amounted to $173. The property has quadrupled in value since our purchase in 2011. Incidentally, a very high profile real estate billionaire purchased the majority of the units in our condo as well as seven other properties in South East Florida and added them to his rental portfolio. The other two couples that we know bought homes in a gated community in Wellington Florida and have done well with their investments.

So here we are again heading into a deep recession. Would we buy another property? We are certainly looking again. If the price is right, we certainly would. We are sitting on a lot of cash now. Our experience is that real estate is one of the best long term investments you can make. It's all about location, location, location.
 
News Flash: the Cares act allows you to pull out $100,000 from your IRA or 401k tax free and penalty free and tax deferred for up to three years. (Read the fine print) it’s called a CvD “Corona virus Distribution “

Might be really worth it for those who have money who would rather invest in real Estate than the stock market.

This is a great opportunity to find some deals in real estate and make a good move to a solid long term investment
 
? How do you replace $100K that you’ve put into real estate within 3 years?

Or do you just pay the taxes on the withdrawal after 3 years and no penalty?
 
30MM job losses and counting, lenders running away from the market (WF and JPM have stopped accepting HELOC applications), GDP plummeting, etc. Perfect recipe for a downdraft. It will take a while, though. With all the forbearance programs, foreclosure, moratoriums, etc. being put in place, the market will simply be frozen for a while. When it does loosen up, there will be a large backlog of foreclosures and workouts.
 
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