What happened to the TSX this morning

[My Dream]

Well back to the topic of TSX, it looks like it's down about 418.95 so far today. OSPTX.TO 3:15PM ET 12,985.51 418.95 3.13% 211,332,802

 

[d]

So this means you suggest selling now while the market is high? Or that a 2% decline is an indication the market has gone to hell and now is the time to buy.

didn't say either ...

 

[wabmester]

Did you guys watch the decline at 3pm EST? The DOW was down about 200, then in a matter of seconds went down 500. It was a very broad decline too.

Only some Really Big Traders with lots of computers can do that. I wonder if all the big boys use the same algorithms....

 

[brewer12345]

Made no sense to me , but maybe there were some margin calls?

It will be interesting to see if there were any hedge funds that blew up as a result of this. Anyone short the VIX got gutted today...

 

[Sam]

Did you guys watch the decline at 3pm EST? The DOW was down about 200, then in a matter of seconds went down 500. It was a very broad decline too.

Same thing happened to SP500 and Nasdaq. REIT followed the same pattern 20 minutes after.

 

[ScaredtoQuit]

Argh!! What if it goes down 2% tomorrow and 2% Thursday?!? I think we're in for a spiral down into the abyss.

I'm out. I'm going 100% bonds.

Just in time to miss tomorrow's rally!

 

[smileydog]

OK... we're down a bit but as a long haul investor I have to believe that this is more of a correction. I'm thinking we need to see how things look at the end of the week.

dog

 

[audreyh1]

Holy cow! That was pretty spectacular. We hadn't seen anything like that since 2004!

So much for "circuit breakers".

The good thing is that when sell-offs are this sharp, the pain is usually over more quickly.

Some bozo did something really crazy at 3p.m. ET as far as I can tell.

Audrey

 

[audreyh1]

Made no sense to me , but maybe there were some margin calls?

It will be interesting to see if there were any hedge funds that blew up as a result of this. Anyone short the VIX got gutted today...

Seems like whenever something this dramatic happens - just like last summer - info comes out later about one or more hedge funds doing some kind of megatrade that went awry.

Audrey

 

[audreyh1]

Getting close Audrey, or are you going to hold out for 10% (I think I am)

Well - actually I'll be holding out for how much my asset allocation is out of whack - I'm not sure exactly how that corresponds to the stock market averages. With bonds having such a huge rally today as well it might push me to reallocate sooner than I expected.

So - I won't know how close I am until after 5p.m. today when I can download all my values and run my asset allocation spreadsheet.

Audrey

 

[audreyh1]

Did you guys watch the decline at 3pm EST? The DOW was down about 200, then in a matter of seconds went down 500. It was a very broad decline too.

Only some Really Big Traders with lots of computers can do that. I wonder if all the big boys use the same algorithms....

Well - circuit breakers were on, I think, which limits program trading. Or at least that is the way it used to work.

According to bloomberg.com:

"Technical Problems

With an hour left before the close of exchanges, trading terminals showed the Dow average dropped 178 points in a single minute. Dow Jones & Co., which oversees the measure, later attributed the decline to a technical problems with its data servers."

If it was a technical data server problem - well, then I don't know why the recovery wasn't more dramatic. Pretty crazy if this was a technical problem.

Audrey

 

[audreyh1]

More on the system technical breakdown today:

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscana/markets/activetraderupdate/10341324.html

Audrey

 

[bpp]

Would cash be better?

Oh, maybe you're right.

Ahhhhhhh!!! Arghhhhhh!

Rocks. Shiny rocks.

 

[Brat]

2.2%

 

[Vincenzo]

OK... we're down a bit but as a long haul investor I have to believe that this is more of a correction. I'm thinking we need to see how things look at the end of the week.

dog

I read, what I thought was, a good posting from someone on the Vanguard Diehards forum at M*. It went something like this:

"The stock market is like a man with a yo-yo walking up stairs. Stop watching the yo-yo. Focus on the stairs."

Think long-term and this will be nothing but a blip.

 

[audreyh1]

Getting close Audrey, or are you going to hold out for 10% (I think I am)

According to my spreadsheets, we would need two more days like today to trigger my rebalance!

So I guess equities need to be down about 9% and bonds up 1.2% to cause a rebalance.

Audrey

 

[shiny]

Shiny rocks.

Gee thanks.

 

[My Dream]

Well back to the topic of TSX, it looks like it's down about 418.95 so far today. OSPTX.TO 3:15PM ET 12,985.51 418.95 3.13% 211,332,802

Well, TSX is at 13,786.94 Trade Time: 10:45AM ET Today, that's just over 6% since Feb. 27. If only we knew...... Not bad for just over 2 months.

 

[Mwsinron]

Well, TSX is at 13,786.94 Trade Time: 10:45AM ET Today, that's just over 6% since Feb. 27. If only we knew...... Not back for just over 2 months.

I didn't know either. Then again I didn't touch my money either and by dumb luck it went up!

 

[Brat]

Humm... I purchased DSX March 29 for $17.40, it is now $20.79, for a 19% gain. Hey Brewer... any more great ideas?

 

[brewer12345]

Humm... I purchased DSX March 29 for $17.40, it is now $20.79, for a 19% gain. Hey Brewer... any more great ideas?

Looking at TONE at the moment. I think I don't want to pay more than $25, though. Still chewing that one over a bit.

 

[Brat]

With ag going great guns at the moment they don't have the risks of banks with profits based on mortgage lending.

So, why has their stock been weak?

 

[brewer12345]

With ag going great guns at the moment they don't have the risks of banks with profits based on mortgage lending.

So, why has their stock been weak?

They decided that it would be a really great idea in 2004 and 2005 to originate a whole bunch of residential seond/vacation home construction loans in master planned communities in Florida. : You can imagine how well that worked out. So they got spanked by the market when everyone ran away from anyone with RE exposure, since they have had a fair amount of bad loans from that pool. But it appears to be far from a crippling blow, and they seem to be managing down the exposure and the problems pretty well. I will be interested in buying the next time people panic about RE, hopefully getting to buy some at $25 or less.

 

[Brat]

I dono... maybe because I remember the banking shakeout of the 70s too well. Even good banks like Benjamin Franklin in Portland were wiped out because they 'helped' the FDIC by buying failed bank's papers.

 

[brewer12345]

I dono... maybe because I remember the banking shakeout of the 70s too well. Even good banks like Benjamin Franklin in Portland were wiped out because they 'helped' the FDIC by buying failed bank's papers.

Not likely to be an issue with TONE. The demutualized in 2002 and raised a ton of capital in the process, which they still have not finished using. Even with their issues they apppear moderately overcapitalized, which in combination with healthy earnings is a pretty good cushion to any future losses. I actually expect they will be an acquisition candidate eventually.