The OP's question is : what would be your AA ? I answered the question honestly from my viewpoint, knowing that my investment decisions have always been very conservative. The question is not asking us to explain what equities are, AA history, or superiority of any AA approach, to which I admit I have little knowledge.
The fact that I may know less about AA than you should not prevent me, as a forum participant - same as you - from answering the OP's simple question about "what would I do". My NW at age 47 is greater than 5 m, even if I have used very conservative investing patterns all my life. No lottery won, worked about 10 years in lower paying countries than the US, and no inheritance. Therefore, I got something right somewhere, didn't I ? Non financial experts should be able give their opinion in these open ER forums the same way as everyone else without the fear of being criticized in public or ridiculed.
Do I criticize you for posting your opinion in healthcare-related forums on this website, even when you openly question well-established and generally accepted medical protocols? I read posts when time permits, and respect everyone's views on these topics, even when I disagree with them. Can you please do the same with mine, or put me on your 'ignore list' and be done with this. Thank you.
pb4uski said:However, with all due respect, your situation is an outlier and most people in these forums are of more modest means and such a conservative AA would result in significant inflation risk.
The OP's question is : what would be your AA ? I answered the question honestly from my viewpoint, knowing that my investment decisions have always been very conservative. The question is not asking us to explain what equities are, AA history, or superiority of any AA approach, to which I admit I have little knowledge.
The fact that I may know less about AA than you should not prevent me, as a forum participant - same as you - from answering the OP's simple question ...
Do I criticize you for posting your opinion in healthcare-related forums on this website, even when you openly question well-established and generally accepted medical protocols? ...
....I have no one on ignore, it's not my thing.
-ERD50
I have no one on ignore, it's not my thing.
-ERD50
Of course you are free to reply. I was just trying to point out that maybe you want to consider if that answer, with limited info, was helpful.
for 3% and under withdrawals i like bill bernsteins risk free concept of short term bonds,tips and annuities.
So do I. Although I worry about inflation, I am comfortable with my plan and my WR overall.
Of course the follow-up question is if you walk away from the investing table, where do you put your money for the next 40+ years? How do you stay ahead of inflation?
FIRECalc says you need to have ~40% as a minimum in equities to have a 95% or better chance of your money lasting 30 years (see graph below). For 40 years something like 50% would probably be better. You might want to run your numbers through FIRECalc using various stock allocations and see for yourself how history says you would have fared.
Yes, deliberately.I think you forgot to include SS ?
Same here. If you are able to live comfortably on a low w/d, no need to take on a lot of extra volatility that comes with equities. I know some here doesn't see it that way, but so be it.
Yes, deliberately.I think you forgot to include SS ?
That chart shows the survival rate of a portfolio over 30 years with a 4% initial w/drawal rate adjusted annually for inflation at various equity/bond asset allocations. No SS or other income sources are included.
Including SS would definitely improve the survivability but everyone doesn't get SS and the amounts vary for those that do.
Having read the subsequent reply/exchanges, how would the OP know from your initial answer (above) that your approach requires a 40-60% (if not more, presumably you know how much) larger nest egg than the mainstream of investors who hold 30-70% ± equities?To answer your question I would reduce my allocation to stocks. However, I tend to be conservative with my investments.
It would be very easy to misinterpret some answers here...that's of no help to anyone.
Like others have said, we're all entitled to our views, but it would seem more helpful if we were all disclosing a little about our investing philosophy before making recommendations to others - especially if your approach is markedly different than most.
Since the OP is often a new member, I wonder if it would be helpful to include some guidelines and a disclaimer in the FAQ section. What do the mods think?
The community rules are already pretty clear. http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/misc.php?do=sknetwork&page=rulesI think these "what would you do?" threads would be more useful if they began with a qualification, such as "please provide the rationale for your answer" or "please share the data to support your recommendation". Otherwise it is a confusing mix of advice and anecdote, often based on circumstances, preferences and concerns that the OP may not share.
Since the OP is often a new member, I wonder if it would be helpful to include some guidelines and a disclaimer in the FAQ section. What do the mods think?
As always, free advice on the Internet is worth what you pay for it and should be aken with an educated grain of salt.
Knowing how to ask a question is just as important as being able to sift through the responses to find the nuggets. I think forum members do a good job of helping people find the right questions and then offer gems, along with the other stuff.Do your own due diligence!
People who are professionals in a variety of fields post on this forum and share their general knowledge. Many of them are brilliant. Some are doofi.
Information obtained from professionals (or from anyone for that matter) who are participants in this forum should be not be relied on when making important life decisions. Their posts are not intended to be professional advice. Their posts may not be accurate, applicable or complete for your own unique situation.
Should be helpful for all concerned. BTW, how much more does a non-equity portfolio require? Since most of us aren't taking that approach, we don't really know. I estimated 140-160% compared to a 75:25 AA, but if the current low interest/bond yield environment persists (see Japan), I would think the premium would be even greater than the estimate I came up with using FIRECALC and past market history. But you'd have to have better estimates than most of us...thanks.Agreed. I will try to expand a bit on my answers in the future, providing some additional context since I may be an outlier in this forum.
I think these "what would you do?" threads would be more useful if they began with a qualification, such as "please provide the rationale for your answer" or "please share the data to support your recommendation". Otherwise it is a confusing mix of advice and anecdote, often based on circumstances, preferences and concerns that the OP may not share.
Since the OP is often a new member, I wonder if it would be helpful to include some guidelines and a disclaimer in the FAQ section. What do the mods think?
As always, free advice on the Internet is worth what you pay for it and should be aken with an educated grain of salt.
I always thought it might be very helpful if members were asked to simply provide their (target or actual) AA (ie, equity:bonds:cash) and whether they're (mostly) FIRE or SIRE, or maybe % FIRE as part of their signature (example below). Many of us have published this info time and time again (often in great detail), but newbies aren't likely to know. That way readers could easily distinguish between applicable posts (and therefore answers) and other. Of course I realize making this happen is probably remote at best. I won't hold my breath...Knowing how to ask a question is just as important as being able to sift through the responses to find the nuggets. I think forum members do a good job of helping people find the right questions and then offer gems, along with the other stuff.
there is something very important missing from this discussion i think ,unless i missed it..
the biggest question is what rate is obgyn looking to draw ?
that is the determining factor.
I think these "what would you do?" threads would be more useful if they began with a qualification, such as "please provide the rationale for your answer" or "please share the data to support your recommendation". Otherwise it is a confusing mix of advice and anecdote, often based on circumstances, preferences and concerns that the OP may not share.
Since the OP is often a new member, I wonder if it would be helpful to include some guidelines and a disclaimer in the FAQ section. What do the mods think?
Knowing how to ask a question is just as important as being able to sift through the responses to find the nuggets. I think forum members do a good job of helping people find the right questions and then offer gems, along with the other stuff.
I always thought it might be very helpful if members were asked to simply provide their (target or actual) AA (ie, equity:bonds:cash) and whether they're (mostly) FIRE or SIRE, or maybe % FIRE as part of their signature (example below). Many of us have published this info time and time again (often in great detail), but newbies aren't likely to know. That way readers could easily distinguish between applicable posts (and therefore answers) and other. Of course I realize making this happen is probably remote at best. I won't hold my breath...
The bogleheads forum has a guide for asking portfolio questions. Maybe posters could use this as a template until/unless ER-org develops one of our own.I'm not a mod of course, so JMHO: I think something along this line is a good idea. In some other forums I frequent, they have a "How to get your questions answered." style FAQ entry, and there is a link to it in the 'Welcome' message when they sign up. It covers things like Meadbh mentioned, plus using a suitable title (not "Help!", but maybe "Rent/Buy Home Decision?")
Very true, but a newbie may not know how to phrase the question. They may be unaware of the significance of a COLA vs non-COLA pension for example. Often, they get 10 responses before anyone asks. I think some guidelines like that would be helpful.
I think that's a pretty good idea. I've avoided a sig since I sort of dislike throwing something up there every time, regardless of its relevance, and taking up vertical space (not a comment against those who use them, just my personal preference). But that info would provide a good reference. Kind of like the location in the sidebar - when talking about weather/seasonal related things, kind of nice to glance and know the general whereabouts of the poster.
-ERD50
Hmmm, any chance we could add that to the sidebar like location? Then it usually would not take up any room at all.
I always thought it might be very helpful if members were asked to simply provide their (target or actual) AA (ie, equity:bonds:cash) and whether they're (mostly) FIRE or SIRE, or maybe % FIRE as part of their signature (example below). Many of us have published this info time and time again (often in great detail), but newbies aren't likely to know. That way readers could easily distinguish between applicable posts (and therefore answers) and other. Of course I realize making this happen is probably remote at best. I won't hold my breath...
I changed my signature as suggested. Feedback would be appreciated.