What's up with all these UFOs all of a sudden

[HawkOwl]

 

[easysurfer]

My thought is instead of shooting these UFOs down, how about capturing some of them to study and verify the origins?

In Star Trek terms, use something equivalent of a tractor beam and haul the alien thing in .

 

[Walt34]

Highlighted in this article are some of the challenges and changes that NORAD has addressed in the last week or so. There is a very technical explanation, but the short story is that traditional radars (the majority of what NORAD uses) are not designed to track very small, very slow-moving objects. It's possible, but optimizing for those targets creates alot of problems as well, including a high volume of radar clutter & false targets. <snip>

If memory serves, this was about the reason the Russians failed to notice that Cessna 152 heading for the landing in Red Square. Oopsie!

I couldn't help imagining the marketing guys at Cessna ROFL and sending the Pentagon suggested uses for their "stealth" aircraft that can sneak in under the Russian radar at 80 knots.

 

[Ronstar]

We will complain to the Chinese about flying their balloons over our airspace. They will "take it under advisement" and do nothing. We will do nothing else. China will complain to us about shooting down their balloon. We will "take it under advisement" and do nothing. They will do nothing else.

If you must, there are plenty of other things genuinely to worry about.

True, but we should not take this lightly. If not handled correctly, this could easily lead to something that is more than just something to worry about.

 

[razztazz]

I think NORAD has admitted/confirmed that they have been asleep at the switch in the sence they have ignored slow moving bogeys at certain altitudes. This could certainly be criticized.

I haven't heard any admission of actually "asleep at the witch" but as a along time NORAD operator myself, any target below a certain speed is assumed "friendly by reason of speed." Also, except for one of the more recent ones picked up off the coast of AK, "area of origin" meaning first radar contact, is also a reason for classification as "friendly." So, even if they had been painting these things there was no military reason of call them a threat. Barring, of course, amplifying information, which I just get a feeling somebody higher up in the government had but was saving...? My really weak evidence is the title of this thread. Just seems to me a little too choreographed.

 

[SecondAttempt]

I haven't heard any admission of actually "asleep at the witch" but as a along time NORAD operator myself, any target below a certain speed is assumed "friendly by reason of speed."

You're right, I have not heard them use that term officially nor to expect to hear it. Many years ago I had a job where I was familiar with our capabilities and vulnerabilities with respect to national defense radar systems for both missile early warning and space surveilance.

In most cases capabilities (what we can see) were classified "secret" but vulnerabilities (what we can't see) would be "top secret." You're not going to see much discussion of either publicly but I have been surprised at the candor I have heard with respect to discussing prior vulnerabilities in terms of what we did not detect, or at least ignored.

 

[SecondAttempt]

We will complain to the Chinese about flying their balloons over our airspace. They will "take it under advisement" and do nothing. We will do nothing else. China will complain to us about shooting down their balloon. We will "take it under advisement" and do nothing. They will do nothing else.

If you must, there are plenty of other things genuinely to worry about.

And all of this will be done with a nod and a wink from both sides. Everyone spies on everyone else. We spy on our friends. Our friends spy on us. We spy on our enemies. Our enemies spy on us. It's all a game. When the Chinese accuse us of doing the most spying of any country in the world, they are probably accurate but only because we are so good at it!

Remember Jonathon Pollard who spied for Isreal, one of our friends?

I once visited a company outside Moscow owned by the Russian Ministry of Defense. No one contacted me beforehand to give me any kind of instructions whatsoever. But when I returned I got a visit from the CIA. I had done nothing wrong. They just asked me a series of questions about anything I observed, security procedures at the gate, etc. My visit had nothing to do with defense, just the commercial activities of the plant so I really had nothing to tell.

 

[SecondAttempt]

Just seems to me a little too choreographed.

I dunno, I think the actual Chinese balloon caught us off guard. I'm inclined to believe this was actually spying. It will likely be determined to be a commercial operation that went awry just as the Chinese have claimed but I'm not buying that. The reality is that the Chinese are not ashamed of their spying activities because everyone does it. They are more likely just embarrassed at having been caught. It came at a time when both the US and China are trying to "make up" so I don't think anyone is going to let it mess things up.

But I think the three smaller objects detected after adjusting our filters are more concerning, not because they are a military or intelligence threat but because they reveal a vulnerability we have had for a long time and it may be common for these kinds of things to float across the US and Canada. They are also a very real threat to commercial aviation. If a bird strike can be so serious, imagine what would happen if a commercial airliner hit a sensor platform midflight!

 

[shotgunner]

I'm wondering why they are using missiles instead of cannon? The later should be cheaper with less incidental damage to the payload.

Because those 20mm rounds fall back to earth.

 

[Gumby]

Because those 20mm rounds fall back to earth.

If a 20 mm round were dropped from 60,000 feet (where the big balloon was), the velocity when it hit the ground would be about 600 ft/sec, which is roughly 20% of the muzzle velocity of the M39 cannon shooting 20mm rounds (3300 ft/sec). So, yes, it would probably kill you if it hit you.

h = height, v= velocity, m = mass, g = gravitational force = 32.2 ft/sec^2

PE (potential energy) = mgh
KE (kinetic energy) = (mv^2)/2

due to conservation of energy PE = KE

mgh= mv^2/2 => gh=(v^2)/2 => 2gh=v^2 => (2gh)^-2=v

=> (2 x (32.2 ft/sec^2 ) x 60,000 ft)^-2 = 1966 ft/sec


However, the terminal velocity of a 200 gram, 20mm round, assuming a drag coefficient of .30, is only 604 ft/sec.

 

[razztazz]

'Nother true "Tales of Norad Operators." In 1978 I actually ran the ground environment (radar operator/intercept controller) part of a weather balloon shoot- down just off, as I recall North or South Carolina. They had to use guns. (Were told to from way high up the chain.) I'm sure modern missiles are better than the old stuff but it's not the target they are made for. Won't see it. WAY expensivo! Could have jet washed it out of the sky but ya know, "guns!" And they required us to use 2 Marine Corps F-4's from Cherry Point NAS, not Air Force interceptors. That might have been due to aircraft and weapons capabilities though. The only reason they wanted us to shoot it at all was "to give the military guys some action." It had already traversed the "I-95" jet corridor." (Miami to Boston) so the major danger was over already. Why shoot it now?

These Chinese balloons are, if I heard it right, something like 100 feet in diameter and carrying a payload the size of a bus? (Which surprised me. Sounds primitive) Not likely a threat to airliners. And those are the malfunctioning low flying ones. They're supposed to be up at 60,000+ feet so we don't know they're there.

 

[Chuckanut]

All of these huge balloon UFO's are further proof that inflation is still a problem for us.

 

[SecondAttempt]

All of these huge balloon UFO's are further proof that inflation is still a problem for us.

And shooting them down shows that we are DOING something about inflation!

Seriously though, I posted last night that there would be an attempt to dismiss the Chinese balloon as something other than spying. Today's headlines say that we now think it was headed to Guam and got blown off course and accidentally crossed the CONUS. Yeah, right! Saving face.

Why would they be interested in Guam? Well, it is where we keep the strategic bombers for the Indopacific. But it's hard to hide a B-52 from a satellite so why bother with a balloon?

 

[SecondAttempt]

If a 20 mm round were dropped from 60,000 feet (where the big balloon was), the velocity when it hit the ground would be about 600 ft/sec, which is roughly 20% of the muzzle velocity of the M39 cannon shooting 20mm rounds (3300 ft/sec). So, yes, it would probably kill you if it hit you.

h = height, v= velocity, m = mass, g = gravitational force = 32.2 ft/sec^2

PE (potential energy) = mgh
KE (kinetic energy) = (mv^2)/2

due to conservation of energy PE = KE

mgh= mv^2/2 => gh=(v^2)/2 => 2gh=v^2 => (2gh)^-2=v

=> (2 x (32.2 ft/sec^2 ) x 60,000 ft)^-2 = 1966 ft/sec


However, the terminal velocity of a 200 gram, 20mm round, assuming a drag coefficient of .30, is only 604 ft/sec.

OMG, English units and not a slug mentioned! Forntunately m cancelled.

 

[audreyh1]

How about a meteor? We heard and felt a boom yesterday afternoon enough to shake the house. Turned out to be a meteor that impacted/exploded west of us. Sighted by two airplanes and reported to air traffic control.

 

[braumeister]

.

 

[misanman]

Hobby Balloons?

http://https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf

Looks like there's a pretty good chance they were hobby balloons - could have weighed as little as 6 pounds and cost as little as $12.

 

[4legsgood]

http://https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf

Looks like there's a pretty good chance they were hobby balloons - could have weighed as little as 6 pounds and cost as little as $12.

If so, good target practice I guess. Maybe sends a message we're alert.

 

[SecondAttempt]

http://https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf

Looks like there's a pretty good chance they were hobby balloons - could have weighed as little as 6 pounds and cost as little as $12.

There's a group in Illinois claiming it is probably theirs:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/16/politics/illinois-balloon-group-alaska-missing/index.html

The balloon was 32 inches in diameter! Pretty amazing we could detect it and a missile could lock on it. Our military has phenomenal technology.

 

[ls99]

If so, good target practice I guess. Maybe sends a message we're alert.

Bit on a the expensive side at around $400K, per shot, espeacially for poking hole in $12.- balloon. And some reports say there was a missed shot as well, so $800K. Hey, it is only taxpayers money. Not like we are talking $Billions.

 

[Walt34]

Well, those missiles do have a shelf life so hopefully they're using the old stock, which could account for the misfire, that was about to expire anyway. (Tongue firmly in cheek.)

 

[misanman]

They said the missile that missed fell harmlessly into Lake Huron. Does that mean there's a live munition down there somewhere. I guess the chances of someone stumbling on it are remote, but still? Also, I'm surprised there's enough mass in one of those hobby balloons to trigger the missile to explode. Seems like it could pass straight through without "noticing".

 

[JoeWras]

They said the missile that missed fell harmlessly into Lake Huron. Does that mean there's a live munition down there somewhere. I guess the chances of someone stumbling on it are remote, but still? Also, I'm surprised there's enough mass in one of those hobby balloons to trigger the missile to explode. Seems like it could pass straight through without "noticing".

Not sure it is remote. Plenty of people are dragging up sunken virgin forest wood from the bottom of the lakes. Hope they don't snag a surprise.

 

[foxfirev5]

Lull them into complacency. Laugh all you want.

 

[roh3]

Curious as to what makes these balloons buoyant?
I think helium is non-renewable and we are running out.