Woohooo! Short squeeze is on...

[brewer12345]

Running Man must think he's the only one who knows how to analyze a stock............

And he bought Synovus around the time of Christ and held it for 1727 years. And he has never made a mistake investing. And I have no doubt that when the markets stabilize and a nasty fcuking short squeeze pushes all this stuff up he will claim to have bought a ton of it.

 

[FinanceDude]

I, on the other hand, bought MSFT a month after they went public, and cashed out a couple years later because I felt a 465% return was good enough for me.......

Of course, I missed out on about 3000% return above that before I got back in.........

This thread makes me feel dumb..........

 

[FUEGO]

One time I won 400 nickels after playing $0.05 in a nickel slot machine. Ha! Beat that! Anyone every gotten a 400 bagger!?!

Then I dutifully donated every nickel of it (and then some) back to the casino.

 

[clifp]

You are misreading my intentions, you post on a great variety of stocks and subjects and I do not comment on the ones I do not feel I have sufficient knowledge, for example the shipping stocks, where I think your commentary is very good. I comment because I believe an opposite view should be told if I believe the opposite is true from what you state.

I try and be specific with my reasons, you have consistently maintained since June that they were absolute bargains, and that the regional banks are unaffected by the housing crisis, and I was wrong because am not understanding the banking financials.

The last six months have been a validation to this point in my position and I anticipate this to continue. However I am watchful to determine if I am incorrect and willing to admit it to be so if it happens. But when you look at a long term chart rarely do you need to rush in to buy a stock or risk missing a major move. You are having such a clear following on stocks to buy on these boards that I feel a note of caution is wise to those willing to conceded a different viewpoint and I attempt to keep my comments specifically and pointedly on the stocks themselves. Time itself will determine if my comments are of any value and I am quite patient in awaiting time's decision.

I appreciate hearing the opposite view a lot.

Brewer is clearly a smart guy and professional investors and as such I take his suggestions seriously. Now I don't buy any stock just because some guy on the internet says so, but I do investigate hot stick tip from anybody who I think has some good insights. I read the financials,look at what other analysts are saying (I give a fair amount of weight to M*) little to everybody else. I then make my decision based on how a stock fits in my portfolio.

I've tried using screener (P/S < 2 P/BV < 1.5 P/E < 20 etc.) and found that I generally wasn't able to gleam from just the financial information why a stock was likely to go up. So I needed a good story. The thing I like about Brewer is generally provides some context. "Day rates are skyrocketing and DSX has new fleet with fairly short term contracts" If I was a good Warren Buffet disciple I'd read annual reports, decide what the company is worth and then look at the stock price. Unfortunately, I suspect that Warren's way is the probably surest way to make money over the long run but I lack his discipline.

The one thing I have going for me is I am contrarian investor, and I have a natural tendency to want to buy when a stock goes down or sell when it goes up a lot. More often than not this leads me too buy and sell too early.

In the case of financial stock, I know have been trying to catch a falling knife. The folks at M*, smart guys like Brewer, my own bias toward companies paying healthy growing dividends, couple with a strong belief that the systems is rigged in favor of financial companies, scream bargain to me.

However when another smart guy with CPA looks at the financial says hey these stock are likely going to be marked down in the future. I wonder if I not looking at the Dec 23 20% mark down of Xmas cards, while I should be waiting for the 70% off sale after Xmas.

Brewer a bit of friendly advice a thick skin is handy thing on a discussion board, cause attacks against your ideas often aren't personal.

 

[haha]

Running Man must think he's the only one who knows how to analyze a stock............

I think that this is a comment unbecoming to a moderator. Furthermore, it makes no sense. Brewer has his point of view, and we all appreciate it. Why can't Running Man give his? He didn't attack anyone, he just didn't agree with the conclusions from an analysis. Professional anlysts disagree with one another daily.

No Mau-Mau-ing, especially when a "moderator" participates.

Ha

 

[TickTock]

Mau-mau-ing

 

[twaddle]

Wow, Ha strikes again.

"Mau-mauing," a transitive verb meaning "to menace through intimidating tactics; to intimidate, harass; to terrorize"

 

[TickTock]

Thanks much!

 

[clifp]

Mau-Mau-ing I've heard it before, but I thought was from Australia aboriginal

[/quote]
mau-mau (mou

mou

)
tr.v. mau·maued, mau·mau·ing, mau·maus Informal To attack or denounce vociferously, especially so as to intimidate: "In years past, [the civil rights leadership] ... would mau-mau the government or the corporate sector or the white community" Joseph Perkins.

[After the Mau Mau, a secret society of Kikuyu terrorists that led a rebellion against the ruling Europeans in Kenya in the 1950s, from Kikuyu mau-mau, sound of the voracious gobbling of a hyena.] [/quote]

I think it was the perfect word choice by Ha Ha.

That said I would find Running Man's comments more useful if added something like

"If AF's loan write of increase from .5% to 1.3% that would cut income by Y% and probably drop the stock down to $X.

 

[Nords]

Part of it is a reaction to you specifically, part is to the persistent tinfoil hattery that permeates this board of late, and part of it is to the children running around with scissors in the capital markets.
But since you put forth no cogent case for valuation of any kind and instead spout some vague dread-inspired statements about buying back stock is bad and when their mortgages start heading south they will need capital, etc., I give up.

I don't even need to take RunningMan off "Ignore Poster" to figure out what he's saying.

When I queried Brewer about shipping stocks, he was able to cough up a comprehensive spreadsheet modeling Eagle Bulk Shipping's revenues and projected profits. After an hour going through their SEC filings and his spreadsheet I think I was able to quibble on one formula. That quibble rolled into a doubling of Eagle and a near-doubling of Diana Shipping before I felt I'd had enough.

Meanwhile RunningMan has avoided presenting any specifics, let alone spreadsheets. This is why I gave up on H0cus, too.

I appreciate hearing the opposite view a lot.
Brewer a bit of friendly advice a thick skin is handy thing on a discussion board, cause attacks against your ideas often aren't personal.

Yeah, but in this case they've been relentless. Every idea Brewer's put forth has been greeted with RM's "Yeahbut" response. I can understand why Brewer takes it personally.

I think that this is a comment unbecoming to a moderator.
No Mau-Mau-ing, especially when a "moderator" participates.

Commentary like this, from one who's never bothered to moderate on this board but has plenty of [-]criticism[/-] feedback, is among the reasons why I'm glad I'm not moderating anymore. To mangle a few metaphors, FD stepped up to the plate and deserves a chance to get his groove without this type of armchair quarterbacking.

 

[Running_Man]

I don't even need to take RunningMan off "Ignore Poster" to figure out what he's saying.

When I queried Brewer about shipping stocks, he was able to cough up a comprehensive spreadsheet modeling Eagle Bulk Shipping's revenues and projected profits. After an hour going through their SEC filings and his spreadsheet I think I was able to quibble on one formula. That quibble rolled into a doubling of Eagle and a near-doubling of Diana Shipping before I felt I'd had enough.

Meanwhile RunningMan has avoided presenting any specifics, let alone spreadsheets. This is why I gave up on H0cus, too.


Yeah, but in this case they've been relentless. Every idea Brewer's put forth has been greeted with RM's "Yeahbut" response. I can understand why Brewer takes it personally.

.

I have only commented on the banking sector as an offset because I felt there were so completely wrong ideas on the sector. I have posted 210 times in 2 years that is about 4 times a week. Brewer 7,364. If you look at the Banking Stock individual stock picking thread you will note it is Brewer and Nords who picked on my comments not the other way around. http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/bank-stocks-29784-5.html I was called names throughout the first 5 pages without directing a single comment on anything Brewer posted, yet Brewer was commenting directly on everything I posted. To be referred to by Brewer as "tinfoil helmet, abject stupidity, droolings of the clueless, how many billions do you manage?" is not fun and an attempt to demean my position merely because I disagreed, but I felt my analysis was correct. I take personal pride in the fact I keep my focus on the banking stocks and pointedly did not take jabs at Brewer. Take time to read it and if I stated a Yea, but at Brewer please point that out to me.

If I turn out to be wrong in the long run I will admit it, but I am confident in my analysis, yet I know I am fallible and it is only my opinion. The recent double bottom in the banking sector does give me pause to think it may hold but I am waiting to see what occurs there before relooking at the fundamental process I feel underlies the entire problem.

Other than projecting what the net income would be, the growth rate I expected and the PE I would be willing to buy and sell, why I thought KEY was one of the worse stocks to buy because of the poor performance in explaining their operation in their earning call, (look at their performance from that point) pointing out the banks themselves have no idea what the value of their holdings have been, the fact the housing slump would by necessity apply to all banks and listing in early February the sectors to most avoid and not just the sub-prime lenders and my disagreement with banks using more than their annual net income to pay dividends and then buy back stock, only to have to borrow at higher costs later, I am amazed at what is regarded as specifics? What I should create an IRR spreadsheet with my projections?

I think the problem is actually that I just do not agree to buy the damn sector. Since Nords has me on ignore, I see he does not know I agree that Brewer has offered very good analysis on the shipping sector.

 

[FinanceDude]

I think that this is a comment unbecoming to a moderator. Furthermore, it makes no sense. Brewer has his point of view, and we all appreciate it. Why can't Running Man give his? He didn't attack anyone, he just didn't agree with the conclusions from an analysis. Professional anlysts disagree with one another daily.

No Mau-Mau-ing, especially when a "moderator" participates.

Ha

To coin a phrase from Bevery Hills Cop I, when Axel Foley asks Sergeant Taggert: "Why are we always fighting"??

Running Man felt it important to "tell us his qualifications" not sure why. I will always stick up for brewer because although he and I are polar opposites politically, he is IMHO a darn good analyst. He reads balance sheets and prospectuses and red herrings for a living. Same with guys like saluki9, guys that actually do portfolio management on portfolios in the 9 digit range. I don't take their financial acumen lightly.

Running Man can take folks to task all he wants, but he needs to understand, as you do, that those of us who also posess some acumen are free to challenge and refute him as does others.

It has NOTHING to do with moderation. Moderators are people too...........

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

FWIW, from someone who doesnt care...

RM gave his qualifications because Clif asked him to.

Brewer is a smart guy. But he doesnt take criticism and questioning of his thinking without lashing out with personal attacks.

Along with the occasional hit, he also throws out some serious stinkers now and then along with a good number of underperformers, with the same assuredness he does here.

Seems that some may be judging RunningMans input here based on prior posts rather than the immediate discussion. And I have nothing to add to that, because he doesnt even register on my radar screen.

And also FWIW, I wouldnt touch banks right now either. Most of them have dropped a lot but only to their puffy overinflated levels of 3 years ago. The same logic had you buying QQQQ's at nasdaq 3000 and piling them on at 2000 about 7 years ago. I think theres plenty of further downside, perhaps years of languishing, and its unclear to me when a recovery would happen and what the upside would be.

But then again, I never did quite 'get' that ISM/OSM thing, and it seemed obvious to me that MOVI and Blockbuster were suckball businesses that wouldnt be making a recover anytime soon, if ever. I didnt fall for the "buy junk" call a few months ago either.

 

[FinanceDude]

FWIW, from someone who doesnt care...

RM gave his qualifications because Clif asked him to.

Brewer is a smart guy. But he doesnt take criticism and questioning of his thinking without lashing out with personal attacks.

Along with the occasional hit, he also throws out some serious stinkers now and then along with a good number of underperformers, with the same assuredness he does here.

Seems that some may be judging RunningMans input here based on prior posts rather than the immediate discussion. And I have nothing to add to that, because he doesnt even register on my radar screen.

And also FWIW, I wouldnt touch banks right now either. Most of them have dropped a lot but only to their puffy overinflated levels of 3 years ago. The same logic had you buying QQQQ's at nasdaq 3000 and piling them on at 2000 about 7 years ago. I think theres plenty of further downside, perhaps years of languishing, and its unclear to me when a recovery would happen and what the upside would be.

But then again, I never did quite 'get' that ISM/OSM thing, and it seemed obvious to me that MOVI and Blockbuster were suckball businesses that wouldnt be making a recover anytime soon, if ever. I didnt fall for the "buy junk" call a few months ago either.

Wow....that's a lot of info for someone who "doesn't care"..............

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Its all part of my efforts to become selfless.

Lets all remember that I defended Ho$uc at first too. He seemed quite reasonable.

 

[Bikerdude]

Its all part of my efforts to become selfless.

Lets all remember that I defended Ho$uc at first too. He seemed quite reasonable.

Must be part of the Christmas spirit .

 

[joesxm3]

I just want to say thank you to Brewer for all the time and effort he puts into helping us here.

 

[clifp]

To coin a phrase from Bevery Hills Cop I, when Axel Foley asks Sergeant Taggert: "Why are we always fighting"??

Running Man felt it important to "tell us his qualifications" not sure why. I will always stick up for brewer because although he and I are polar opposites politically, he is IMHO a darn good analyst. He reads balance sheets and prospectuses and red herrings for a living. Same with guys like saluki9, guys that actually do portfolio management on portfolios in the 9 digit range. I don't take their financial acumen lightly.

Running Man can take folks to task all he wants, but he needs to understand, as you do, that those of us who also posess some acumen are free to challenge and refute him as does others.

It has NOTHING to do with moderation. Moderators are people too...........

Ok I went back and reviewed the last few months of Running Man posts. I didn't seen any instances when he was attacking people, being nasty, or doing anything that would warrent be called down by a moderator. Other than one crack about investing when Brewer was high school I just don't see it. (Which remind me of Reagan vs Mondale I will not hold my opponents youth and inexperience against him.. well you had to be there.)

He has consistently disagreed with the opinion of Brewer and other that bank stocks are a bargain and we will recover once Mr. Market comes to his senses. He also been bashed a lot for his opinions.

I asked Running Man his qualifications (and CPA and many years of investment experience count for something.) This is NOT an academic question for me. I own one bank stock several risk but high yielding quasi banks and have written puts on USB, BAC, WFC, and BBT of which all but USB are likely to be exercised in Jan. Since the amount involved is well in the 6 digit range, I am interest in collecting as much information as I can.

The way I figure. The group of folks who think Bank stocks are a bargain is pretty impressive
It starts with Warren Buffett, includes most of the Morningstar analyst, the professional money managers like Brewer and FinanceDude. It also includes me although in my case I pretty much worried in mostly concerned with the dividends being paid in the intermediate term.

On the side of Banks are overalued is Mr. Market who pretty routinely drives the stocks down. I can't ask the guy who sold BAC at $42.11 today. Sir could you tell me why you sold BofA. Warren Buffett owns it, Morningstar say it is worth $70, and it pays a 5.7% dividend, what were you possibly thinking when you sold it? I don't know if he sold because he was tax harvesting, he is a sheep, his mutual fund is having redemption problems and needs to raise cash, he is window dress for the end of the quarter, or he has a lot of insight in the intrinsic value of the stock.

Running Man is sort of Mr Market to me. So when he says that we are just seeing the tip of the non-performing loan problem, and he'd be interested in BofA at $12 why this in interesting red flag to me that even the smart money can be wrong. So lets not discourage long time but infrequent posters ok?

 

[emilylynn]

Seems to me as though a lot of angina could be avoided if, when responding to the ideas of others, posters on discussion boards would simply behave as they would in a "real life" social situation. Is there any doubt about how long a corporate manager would last if he responded to the ideas of his peers or subordinates (not to mention his superiors) by prefacing his opinion with the equivalent of "You clearly have no understanding of this issue" or "As I've told you over and over. . ." Or if he stuck his head into a meeting addressed to a perceived threat to the business only to crow, "Tin hat, tin hat!"? The message of disrespect and derision is no less powerful in an internet forum than it is in the workplace.

 

[FUEGO]

Seems to me as though a lot of angina could be avoided if, when responding to the ideas of others, posters on discussion boards would simply behave as they would in a "real life" social situation. Is there any doubt about how long a corporate manager would last if he responded to the ideas of his peers or subordinates (not to mention his superiors) by prefacing his opinion with the equivalent of "You clearly have no understanding of this issue" or "As I've told you over and over. . ." Or if he stuck his head into a meeting addressed to a perceived threat to the business only to crow, "Tin hat, tin hat!"? The message of disrespect and derision is no less powerful in an internet forum than it is in the workplace.

Isn't that how most corporate managers actually act in real life?!?!

A good reason to FIRE.

 

[Bikerdude]

Isn't that how most corporate managers actually act in real life?!?!

Pretty much normal behavior where I worked. You should have seen how we treated vendors . It probably seems like a normal work conversation to Brewer .

 

[TickTock]

Superiors? No.

Peers? Most don't, some do.

Subordinates? Many (but IME not most) do.

 

[Spanky]

Sign .. we put on our mask when we interact with people face to face. We reveal our true self behind the wheel or in an internet forum.